Inventory was up 5.5% year-over-year in May. This is the third consecutive months with a YoY increase in inventory, following fifteen consecutive months of YoY declines in Phoenix. This could be a significant change.
The Arizona Regional Multiple Listing Service (ARMLS) reports (table below):
1) Overall sales in May were up 6.4% year-over-year.
2) Cash Sales (frequently investors) were down to 21.8% of total sales.
3) Active inventory is now up 5.5% year-over-year.
More inventory (a theme in 2014) - and less investor buying - suggested price increases would slow sharply in 2014. And prices increases did slow in 2014, only increasing 2.4% according to Case-Shiller.
In 2015, with falling inventory, prices increased a little faster - Prices were up 6.3% in 2015 according to Case-Shiller.
Now inventory is increasing a little again, and - if this trend continues in Phoenix - price increases will probably slow.
| May Residential Sales and Inventory, Greater Phoenix Area, ARMLS | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sales | YoY Change Sales |
Cash Sales |
Percent Cash |
Inventory | YoY Change Inventory |
|
| May-08 | 5,6371 | --- | 1,062 | 18.8% | 54,1611 | --- |
| May-09 | 9,284 | 64.7% | 3,592 | 38.7% | 39,902 | -26.3% |
| May-10 | 9,067 | -2.3% | 3,341 | 36.8% | 41,326 | 3.6% |
| May-11 | 9,811 | 8.2% | 4,523 | 46.1% | 31,661 | -23.4% |
| May-12 | 8,445 | 13.5% | 3,907 | 46.3% | 20,162 | -36.3% |
| May-13 | 9,440 | 11.8% | 3,669 | 38.9% | 19,734 | -2.1% |
| May-14 | 7,442 | -21.2% | 2,193 | 29.5% | 29,091 | 47.4% |
| May-15 | 8,293 | 11.4% | 1,988 | 24.0% | 24,616 | -15.4% |
| May-16 | 8,820 | 6.4% | 1,931 | 21.9% | 25,980 | 5.5% |
| 1 May 2008 does not include manufactured homes, ~100 more | ||||||
from Calculated Risk http://ift.tt/28LpnRw
via YQ Matrix
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