Tuesday 31 December 2013

Market Update: Happy New Year!

S&P 500

Click on graph for larger image.



By request - following the huge market rally in 2013 - here are a couple of stock market graphs. The first graph shows the S&P 500 since 1990 (this excludes dividends).



The dashed line is the closing price today. The market was up 29.6% in 2013 plus dividends.



S&P 500 The second graph (click on graph for larger image) is from Doug Short and shows the S&P 500 since the 2007 high ...



Happy 2014 to all.



from Calculated Risk http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2013/12/market-update-happy-new-year.html

via YQ Matrix

Question #5 for 2014: Monetary Policy: Will the Fed end QE3 in 2014?

Earlier I posted some questions for next year: Ten Economic Questions for 2014. I'll try to add some thoughts, and maybe some predictions for each question.



Here is a review of the Ten Economic Questions for 2013.



5) Monetary Policy: It appears the Fed's current plan is to reduce their monthly asset purchases by about $10 billion at each FOMC meeting in 2014. That would put the monthly purchases at close to zero in December 2014. Will the Fed complete QE3 in 2014? Or will the Fed continue to buy assets in 2015?



Although the Fed is not on auto-pilot - the FOMC is still data dependent - I think it is very likely that QE3 will be completed by the end of 2014. There are 8 meetings during the year, and I expect the FOMC to reduce the pace of asset purchases at about $10 billion per meeting. In January, the Fed will purchase $75 billion in assets and I expect that to be reduced to $65 billion in February (following the meeting on January 28th and 29th). And a similar reduction at each meeting all year.



It appears they will only slow the taper if inflation declines sharply - or if the economy stalls (I think both are unlikely).



It also seems unlikely they will accelerate the pace of the taper significantly.



So even though the Fed is data-dependent, I currently expect the Fed to reduce their asset purchases by $10 billion per month (or so) at each meeting this year and conclude QE3 at the end of the 2014.



Here are the ten questions for 2014 and a few predictions:

Question #5 for 2014: Monetary Policy: Will the Fed end QE3 in 2014?

Question #6 for 2014: How much will Residential Investment increase?

Question #7 for 2014: What will happen with house prices in 2014?

Question #8 for 2014: Housing Credit: Will we see easier mortgage lending in 2014?

Question #9 for 2014: How much will housing inventory increase in 2014?

Question #10 for 2014: Downside Risks



from Calculated Risk http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2013/12/question-5-for-2014-monetary-policy.html

via YQ Matrix

Case-Shiller: Comp 20 House Prices increased 13.6% year-over-year in October

Note: I'm having difficulties with the S&P website. I'll some graphs soon ...



From Reuters: US home prices notch big annual gain: S&P/Case-Shiller

The S&P/Case Shiller composite index of 20 metropolitan areas gained 0.2 percent in October on a non-seasonally adjusted basis ... On a seasonally-adjusted basis, prices were up 1 percent.



Compared to a year earlier, prices were up 13.6 percent ...



the more subdued monthly gains "show we are living on borrowed time and the boom is fading," David Blitzer, chairman of the index committee at S&P Dow Jones Indices, said in a statement.

This was close to the consensus forecast of a 13.7% year-over-year increase.



from Calculated Risk http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2013/12/case-shiller-comp-20-house-prices_31.html

via YQ Matrix

LME acts on warehousing concerns


New ruling attempts to ease delivery queues and sky-high premiums




Industrial metal users have long complained about the length of time they have had to wait for deliveries of aluminium from London Metal Exchange (LME) listed warehouses, but it is hoped a new ruling will help ease these queues.




Complaints of the warehousing system have been registered by the likes of MillerCoors, Coca-Cola and Novelis who have all criticised the low-rate at which storage facilities have shipped out the metal. This, they said, was not only pushing up the premiums they had to pay over and above the cost of the metal itself, but artificially limiting the availability of supply at a time when an abundance of the metal existed.




Accusations were labelled at the owners of these warehouses – JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs, Glencore and Trafigura – that they were simply profiteering at the expense of both customers and consumers, by charging rent for that metal which was stuck in a long queue.




These warehouses charged customers around 41 US cents per tonne, per day for storage of the metal. The queues at some of these locations stretched to 19 months and so costs mounted quickly.




Owners of the warehouses said they were simply working within the rules which stipulated that they had to load-out 1,500 tonnes of the metal per day, but crucially, could take in as much as they could handle. As the global economy improved and pushed up demand, which saw queues lengthen, premiums rise and tempers flare.




Consultations and investigations into the issue were carried out and revealed that in 2012 businesses had had to pay around $3bn more than they had previously.




In an attempt to ease the congestion the LME proposed in 2011 that those warehouses holding more than 900,000 tonnes of the metal would have to increase output to 3,000 tonnes per day from April 2012. This was met with disapproval from many who said that load-out rates should be much higher and implemented immediately.




The LME continued the search for a solution and in November 2013 announced a package of reforms that will oblige warehouses with queues of over 50 days to ship out at least 1,500 tonnes more than they take in.




Speaking to Procurement Leaders about the changes Nick Madden, senior vice president and chief supply chain officer at Novelis said, “In my view any kind of queue is unacceptable, but saying that, the new 50-day ruling is a step in the right direction.




“It’s going to take a long time for this to be effective, but you can’t expect an overnight change and the situation will improve.”




He said that he was confident the new ruling would make warehouses less inclined to offer the incentives they had done in the past to hold on to the metal and that the LME would act against those that didn’t conform.




As for what will happen to premium’s Madden told the Novelis company blog that they should return to normal levels. However, he added that supply chain risk will remain if those owners of the metal decide to withdrawn this stock from LME registered warehouses and shift it to non-LME warehouses, which would push stocks below the radar and make the market less transparent.




Depending largely on what Chinese smelters decide to do, this could also result in a cut in output.




“These high premiums kept a lot of smelters going so if they do fall we may see some capacity cut, but Chinese producers continue to come into the market,” says Madden.




But with healthy stockpiles, the potential for a decrease in premiums as well as rising load-out rates, the New Year will be something that aluminium buyers can look forward to rather than fear.







from Procurement Leaders Blog http://www.procurementleaders.com/blog/my-blog--tim-burt/lme-acts-on-warehousing-concerns

This content was assembled for you by the YQ Matrix platform



The views expressed in this post and throughout the series are the autor's own and not intended to reflect the views the YQ Matrix platform, its users or any associated organisations.



For the procurement people among you, have a look at the latest YQ Matrix raw material and semi-finished prices. For: Prices on other websites.

Monday 30 December 2013

Tuesday: Case-Shiller House Prices, Chicago PMI

I've posted some thoughts (and a few predictions) on half of my ten questions for 2014. There will be more to come (I've also received some thoughtful disagreements - I don't have a crystal ball, I just try to outline my current views):

Question #6 for 2014: How much will Residential Investment increase?

Question #7 for 2014: What will happen with house prices in 2014?

Question #8 for 2014: Housing Credit: Will we see easier mortgage lending in 2014?

Question #9 for 2014: How much will housing inventory increase in 2014?

Question #10 for 2014: Downside Risks



Tuesday:

• At 9:00 AM ET, the S&P/Case-Shiller House Price Index for October. Although this is the October report, it is really a 3 month average of August, September and October. The consensus is for a 13.7% year-over-year increase in the Composite 20 index (NSA) for October.



• At 9:45 AM, the Chicago Purchasing Managers Index for December. The consensus is for a decrease to 61.3, down from 63.0 in November.



• At 10:00 AM, the Conference Board's consumer confidence index for December. The consensus is for the index to increase to 76.8 from 70.4.



from Calculated Risk http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2013/12/tuesday-case-shiller-house-prices.html

via YQ Matrix

LPS: House Price Index increased 0.1% in October, Up 8.8% year-over-year

Notes: I follow several house price indexes (Case-Shiller, CoreLogic, LPS, Zillow, FHFA, FNC and more). The timing of different house prices indexes can be a little confusing. LPS uses the current month closings only (not a three month average like Case-Shiller or a weighted average like CoreLogic), excludes short sales and REOs, and is not seasonally adjusted.



From LPS: LPS Home Price Index Report: October Transactions, U.S. Home Prices Up 0.1 Percent for the Month; Up 8.8 Percent Year-Over-Year

Lender Processing Services ... based on October 2013 residential real estate transactions. The LPS HPI combines the company’s extensive property and loan-level databases to produce a repeat sales analysis of home prices as of their transaction dates every month for each of more than 18,500 U.S. ZIP codes. The LPS HPI represents the price of non-distressed sales by taking into account price discounts for REO and short sales.

The year-over-year increase was slightly less in October than in September. The LPS HPI is off 14.1% from the peak in June 2006.



Note: The press release has data for the 20 largest states, and 40 MSAs. Prices declined slightly in eight of the 20 largest states in October, and 18 of the 40 largest MSAs. LPS shows prices off 44.6% from the peak in Las Vegas, off 37.4% in Orlando, and 35.4% off from the peak in Riverside-San Bernardino, CA (Inland Empire). "After months of setting new highs, Texas - and the major metropolitan areas of Austin and Dallas - saw a slight pullback in October."



Note: Case-Shiller for October will be released tomorrow.



from Calculated Risk http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2013/12/lps-house-price-index-increased-01-in.html

via YQ Matrix

India Clears Tesco's $110 Million Supermarket Investment



By REUTERS from NYT Business Day http://nyti.ms/18TrDSR

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The views expressed in this post and throughout the series are the autor's own and not intended to reflect the views the YQ Matrix platform, its users or any associated organisations.



For the procurement people among you, have a look at the latest YQ Matrix raw material and semi-finished prices. For: Prices on other websites.

Friday 27 December 2013

The Farm-to-Centerpiece Movement



By STACEY SOLIE from NYT Fashion & Style http://nyti.ms/1cuylOD

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The views expressed in this post and throughout the series are the autor's own and not intended to reflect the views the YQ Matrix platform, its users or any associated organisations.



For the procurement people among you, have a look at the latest YQ Matrix raw material and semi-finished prices. For: Prices on other websites.

Tuesday 24 December 2013

A Westminster Diary or An SME in King Arthur's Court by Alun Rafique


Reblogged from Procurement Insights EU Edition:



Click to visit the original post

Editor's Note: In this latest account about the challenges faced by SMEs in terms of doing business with the UK Government - a challenge that is more often than not commensurate with King Arthur extracting the sword from the Stone of Scone - Alun Rafique shares, in both words and pictures, his company's experience with providing evidence before the Communities and Local Government Committee.



Read more… 1,013 more words





Editor's Note: Across the pond the challenges SMEs face in terms of doing business with the UK government is at times reminiscent of King Arthur having to extract the sword from the Stone of Scone. Can the same thing be said for SMEs here in North America?






from Procurement Insights http://procureinsights.wordpress.com/2013/12/24/a-westminster-diary-or-an-sme-in-king-arthurs-court-by-alun-rafique/

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The views expressed in this post and throughout the series are the autor's own and not intended to reflect the views the YQ Matrix platform, its users or any associated organisations.



For the procurement people among you, have a look at the latest YQ Matrix raw material and semi-finished prices. For: Prices on other websites.

Monday 23 December 2013

$40 Million in Aid Set for Bangladesh Garment Workers



By STEVEN GREENHOUSE from NYT Business Day http://nyti.ms/1ctc7hw

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The views expressed in this post and throughout the series are the autor's own and not intended to reflect the views the YQ Matrix platform, its users or any associated organisations.



For the procurement people among you, have a look at the latest YQ Matrix raw material and semi-finished prices. For: Prices on other websites.

Tuesday: New Home Sales, Durable Goods, Richmond Fed Mfg Survey and More

China remains a risk, from the WSJ: China Cash Crunch Shows Central Bank's Difficulties

A cash crunch among China's banks intensified, highlighting the difficulties faced by the central bank in managing an increasingly stressed financial system.

...

The current squeeze is driven by several factors, analysts said. One is a little-noticed drop in China's year-end government spending. ... Banks are becoming more cautious and are hoarding more cash for future needs in case the cash squeeze worsens. Some of them are also boosting provisions for potential loan defaults.

...

"To prevent systemic risks, and reduce the impact on liquidity, the supervision of the interbank market will continue to be strengthened," analysts at Bank of China Ltd. said in a report Monday, adding that interbank lending was "accentuating hidden dangers" in the financial system. The rise in rates came despite the Chinese central bank's announcement late Friday that it had injected more than 300 billion yuan into the financial system over a three-day period following the increase in interbank rates last week.

Tuesday: All US markets will close early



• At 7:00 AM ET, Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index.



• At 8:30 AM, Durable Goods Orders for November from the Census Bureau. The consensus is for a 1.5% increase in durable goods orders.



• At 9:00 AM, the FHFA House Price Index for October 2013. This was original a GSE only repeat sales, however there is also an expanded index. The consensus is for a 0.4% increase.



• At 10:00 AM, New Home Sales for November from the Census Bureau. The consensus is for an increase in sales to 450 thousand Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate (SAAR) in November from 444 thousand in October.



• Also at 10:00 AM, Richmond Fed Survey of Manufacturing Activity for December. The consensus is a reading of 10, down from 13 in November (above zero is expansion).



from Calculated Risk http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2013/12/tuesday-new-home-sales-durable-goods.html

via YQ Matrix

Bangladesh Factory Owner to Plead Innocent in Deadly Blaze Case

Tech Startups Create Virtual Farmers Markets

Sunday 22 December 2013

Friday 20 December 2013

Mineral producers prepare to report weaker full year prices for 2013

Consolidation steadies antimony’s decline while chemical minerals remain stable during December



from MPW - Pricing News http://www.indmin.com/Article/3291552/Mineral-producers-prepare-to-report-weaker-full-year-prices-for-2013.html

via IFTTT

Thursday 19 December 2013

Tracking the Snowy Owl Migration in Real Time



By JEFFERY DELVISCIO from NYT http://nyti.ms/1kmme9v2013/12/19/tracking-the-snowy-owl-migration-in-real-time/

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The views expressed in this post and throughout the series are the autor's own and not intended to reflect the views the YQ Matrix platform, its users or any associated organisations.



For the procurement people among you, have a look at the latest YQ Matrix raw material and semi-finished prices. For: Prices on other websites.

Tesco Plans Cautious India Entry After Arm-Twisting by Politicians



By REUTERS from NYT Business Day http://nyti.ms/1klmLJ0ml

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The views expressed in this post and throughout the series are the autor's own and not intended to reflect the views the YQ Matrix platform, its users or any associated organisations.



For the procurement people among you, have a look at the latest YQ Matrix raw material and semi-finished prices. For: Prices on other websites.

Tuesday 17 December 2013

In Uzbekistan, the Practice of Forced Labor Lives On During the Cotton Harvest



By MANSUR MIROVALEV and ANDREW E. KRAMER from NYT World http://www.nytimes.com/2013/12/18/world/asia/forced-labor-lives-on-in-uzbekistans-cotton-fields.html

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The views expressed in this post and throughout the series are the autor's own and not intended to reflect the views the YQ Matrix platform, its users or any associated organisations.



For the procurement people among you, have a look at the latest YQ Matrix raw material and semi-finished prices. For: Prices on other websites.

Iodine prices steady for December

Ramp up of Chilean production expected to slow in 2014 as costs hit margins



from MPW - Pricing News http://www.indmin.com/Article/3289649/Iodine-prices-steady-for-December.html

via IFTTT

Monday 16 December 2013

Retailers Halt Angora Wool Sourcing After Cruelty Allegations



By REUTERS from NYT Business Day http://www.nytimes.com/reuters/2013/12/16/business/16reuters-britain-retail-angora.html

This content was assembled for you by the YQ Matrix platform



The views expressed in this post and throughout the series are the autor's own and not intended to reflect the views the YQ Matrix platform, its users or any associated organisations.



For the procurement people among you, have a look at the latest YQ Matrix raw material and semi-finished prices. For: Prices on other websites.

Wednesday 11 December 2013

YQ Matrix platform updated 16.000 products with price and volume data of May and June 2013


For free of charge price and sourcing information of more than 16.000 products, you can create your own graphs on the YQ Matrix platform: www.YQmatrix.com. Login creation and access on this huge database is free of charge too.







via http://www.reddit.com/r/procurement/comments/1smxnd/yq_matrix_platform_updated_16000_products_with/

Tuesday 10 December 2013

Passion: The fork in the road between Nelson Mandela and Discovery Channel's Mike Rowe? by Roz Usheroff


Reblogged from The Remarkable Leader:



Click to visit the original post

While President's may not one day eulogize you as being a "great liberator," you can nonetheless cast a giant shadow within the context of your world - big or small.


At least this is what I have taken away as one of Nelson Mandela's enduring legacies, that was exemplified by his famous quote; "Everyone can rise above their circumstances and achieve success if they are dedicated to and passionate about what they do."



Read more… 678 more words





Editor's Note: Does dedication come before passion, or passion before dedication? Roz Usheroff poses this interesting question by linking two people I would have never thought of in the same world, let alone the same article. So here is the question . . . are you dedicated or passionate about procurement?






from Procurement Insights http://procureinsights.wordpress.com/2013/12/10/passion-the-fork-in-the-road-between-nelson-mandela-and-discovery-channels-mike-rowe-by-roz-usheroff/

This content was assembled for you by the YQ Matrix platform



The views expressed in this post and throughout the series are the autor's own and not intended to reflect the views the YQ Matrix platform, its users or any associated organisations.



For the procurement people among you, have a look at the latest YQ Matrix raw material and semi-finished prices. For: Prices on other websites.