Friday: Jobs, Autos, ISM Manufacturing and More

From Goldman Sachs economist Sven Jari Stehn: July Payroll Preview

We expect a 235,000 increase in nonfarm payrolls and a one tenth drop in the unemployment rate to 6.0%. As far as payrolls are concerned, our forecast would be a solid gain but at a pace slightly below that seen over the past few months. While a number of labor market indicators improved slightly in July (including jobless claims, the business survey employment components and household job market perceptions), other considerations point to a deceleration in the pace of employment creation (including a slowdown in ADP employment growth, softer online job advertising, higher layoffs and the composition of the June payroll gain).

Friday:

• At 8:30 AM ET, the Employment Report for July. The consensus is for an increase of 228,000 non-farm payroll jobs added in July, down from the 288,000 non-farm payroll jobs added in June. The consensus is for the unemployment rate to be unchanged at 6.1% in July.



• At 8:30 AM, Personal Income and Outlays for June including revised estimates 2011 through May 2014. The consensus is for a 0.4% increase in personal income, and for a 0.4% increase in personal spending. And for the Core PCE price index to increase 0.2%.



• At 9:55 AM, Reuter's/University of Michigan's Consumer sentiment index (final for July). The consensus is for a reading of 81.5, up from the preliminary reading of 81.3, and down from the June reading of 82.5.



• All day, Light vehicle sales for July. The consensus is for light vehicle sales to decrease to 16.7 million SAAR in July from 16.9 million in June (Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate).



• At 10:00 AM, Construction Spending for June. The consensus is for a 0.5% increase in construction spending.



• At 10:00 AM, ISM Manufacturing Index for July. The consensus is for an increase to 55.9 from 55.3 in June. The ISM manufacturing index indicated expansion in June at 55.3%. The employment index was at 52.8%, and the new orders index was at 58.9%.



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Synthetics Pose a Conundrum for World Diamond Industry

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Price Briefing 25 – 31 July

Barite and chromite prices fall; Goldman warns agrimineral strength is temporary



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Luxury That’s From Africa, and for Africa

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Iran Frees U.S.-Iranian, Three Journalists Still Held: Source

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FOMC Statement: More Tapering

Another $10 billion reduction in asset purchases. Two key statement changes: "a range of labor market indicators suggests that there remains significant underutilization of labor resources" and "Inflation has moved somewhat closer to the Committee's longer-run objective".



FOMC Statement:

Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in June indicates that growth in economic activity rebounded in the second quarter. Labor market conditions improved, with the unemployment rate declining further. However, a range of labor market indicators suggests that there remains significant underutilization of labor resources. Household spending appears to be rising moderately and business fixed investment is advancing, while the recovery in the housing sector remains slow. Fiscal policy is restraining economic growth, although the extent of restraint is diminishing. Inflation has moved somewhat closer to the Committee's longer-run objective. Longer-term inflation expectations have remained stable.



Consistent with its statutory mandate, the Committee seeks to foster maximum employment and price stability. The Committee expects that, with appropriate policy accommodation, economic activity will expand at a moderate pace, with labor market indicators and inflation moving toward levels the Committee judges consistent with its dual mandate. The Committee sees the risks to the outlook for economic activity and the labor market as nearly balanced and judges that the likelihood of inflation running persistently below 2 percent has diminished somewhat.



The Committee currently judges that there is sufficient underlying strength in the broader economy to support ongoing improvement in labor market conditions. In light of the cumulative progress toward maximum employment and the improvement in the outlook for labor market conditions since the inception of the current asset purchase program, the Committee decided to make a further measured reduction in the pace of its asset purchases. Beginning in August, the Committee will add to its holdings of agency mortgage-backed securities at a pace of $10 billion per month rather than $15 billion per month, and will add to its holdings of longer-term Treasury securities at a pace of $15 billion per month rather than $20 billion per month. The Committee is maintaining its existing policy of reinvesting principal payments from its holdings of agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities in agency mortgage-backed securities and of rolling over maturing Treasury securities at auction. The Committee's sizable and still-increasing holdings of longer-term securities should maintain downward pressure on longer-term interest rates, support mortgage markets, and help to make broader financial conditions more accommodative, which in turn should promote a stronger economic recovery and help to ensure that inflation, over time, is at the rate most consistent with the Committee's dual mandate.



The Committee will closely monitor incoming information on economic and financial developments in coming months and will continue its purchases of Treasury and agency mortgage-backed securities, and employ its other policy tools as appropriate, until the outlook for the labor market has improved substantially in a context of price stability. If incoming information broadly supports the Committee's expectation of ongoing improvement in labor market conditions and inflation moving back toward its longer-run objective, the Committee will likely reduce the pace of asset purchases in further measured steps at future meetings. However, asset purchases are not on a preset course, and the Committee's decisions about their pace will remain contingent on the Committee's outlook for the labor market and inflation as well as its assessment of the likely efficacy and costs of such purchases.



To support continued progress toward maximum employment and price stability, the Committee today reaffirmed its view that a highly accommodative stance of monetary policy remains appropriate. In determining how long to maintain the current 0 to 1/4 percent target range for the federal funds rate, the Committee will assess progress--both realized and expected--toward its objectives of maximum employment and 2 percent inflation. This assessment will take into account a wide range of information, including measures of labor market conditions, indicators of inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and readings on financial developments. The Committee continues to anticipate, based on its assessment of these factors, that it likely will be appropriate to maintain the current target range for the federal funds rate for a considerable time after the asset purchase program ends, especially if projected inflation continues to run below the Committee's 2 percent longer-run goal, and provided that longer-term inflation expectations remain well anchored.



When the Committee decides to begin to remove policy accommodation, it will take a balanced approach consistent with its longer-run goals of maximum employment and inflation of 2 percent. The Committee currently anticipates that, even after employment and inflation are near mandate-consistent levels, economic conditions may, for some time, warrant keeping the target federal funds rate below levels the Committee views as normal in the longer run.



Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were: Janet L. Yellen, Chair; William C. Dudley, Vice Chairman; Lael Brainard; Stanley Fischer; Richard W. Fisher; Narayana Kocherlakota; Loretta J. Mester; Jerome H. Powell; and Daniel K. Tarullo. Voting against was Charles I. Plosser who objected to the guidance indicating that it likely will be appropriate to maintain the current target range for the federal funds rate for "a considerable time after the asset purchase program ends," because such language is time dependent and does not reflect the considerable economic progress that has been made toward the Committee's goals.

emphasis added

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Waning consumption weighs on foundry grade chromite prices

Dumping and reclamation activity puts lid on demand for new supply



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Goldman goes soft on potash and firms up on zircon prices

The US investment bank’s latest research report on fertiliser and mineral sands markets goes against the expectations of many in the industry, by predicting a weakening in prices for potash but gains for TiO2 and zircon. Goldman cites sound economic reasoning behind its forecasts, however, throwing the futures of these markets open to debate.



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Falcons vs. Windmills

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McDonald's Japan apologizes for China meat scandal

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McDonald's Japan apologizes for China meat scandal

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Summer holiday for agriminerals, no break for mineral sands

Agrimineral demand recovery continues as flame retardant chemical price growth stutters; no gains in sight for mineral sands



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McDonald's Japan Considering Procuring Chicken From Brazil

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World Music Fest Adds the Actual Taste of What People Hear

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McDonald's Japan Withdraws Profit Guidance After China Food Scare

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Uralkali may increase Chinese potash price by 10% in 2015

Increase would signal beginning of claw back of this year’s discounts in recovering market



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Phosphate prices show significant improvement in H1 2014

Market recovery continues on increasing confidence and demand



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Black Knight (formerly LPS): House Price Index up 0.9% in May, Up 5.9% year-over-year

Notes: I follow several house price indexes (Case-Shiller, CoreLogic, Black Knight (formerly LPS), Zillow, FHFA, FNC and more). The timing of different house prices indexes can be a little confusing. Black Knight uses the current month closings only (not a three month average like Case-Shiller or a weighted average like CoreLogic), excludes short sales and REOs, and is not seasonally adjusted.



From LPS: U.S. Home Prices Up 0.9 Percent for the Month; Up 5.9 Percent Year-Over-Year

Today, the Data and Analytics division of Black Knight Financial Services released its latest Home Price Index (HPI) report, based on May 2014 residential real estate transactions. The Black Knight HPI combines the company’s extensive property and loan-level databases to produce a repeat sales analysis of home prices as of their transaction dates every month for each of more than 18,500 U.S. ZIP codes. The Black Knight HPI represents the price of non-distressed sales by taking into account price discounts for REO and short sales.

The year-over-year increases have been getting steadily smaller for the last 8 months - as shown in the table below:

Month	YoY House Price Increase
Jan-13	6.7%
Feb-13	7.3%
Mar-13	7.6%
Apr-13	8.1%
May-13	7.9%
Jun-13	8.4%
Jul-13	8.7%
Aug-13	9.0%
Sep-13	9.0%
Oct-13	8.8%
Nov-13	8.5%
Dec-13	8.4%
Jan-14	8.0%
Feb-14	7.6%
Mar-14	7.0%
Apr-14	6.4%
May-14	5.9%

The LPS HPI is off 11.1% from the peak in June 2006.



Note: The press release has data for the 20 largest states, and 40 MSAs.



LPS shows prices off 42.6% from the peak in Las Vegas, off 35.7% in Orlando, and 31.7% off from the peak in Riverside-San Bernardino, CA (Inland Empire). Prices are at new highs in Colorado and Texas (Denver, Austin, Dallas, Houston and San Antonio metros). Prices are also at new highs in San Jose, CA and in Nashville, TN.



Note: Case-Shiller for May will be released tomorrow.



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Chinese barite prices dip in softening market

A slight weakening in demand coupled with changes in freight rates have caused some drilling and chemical grade barite values to slip



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Justice Dept. Moves to Shield Anti-Iran Group’s Files

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Index of Private Housing Rental Prices - April to June 2014 results

The Index of Private Housing Rental Prices (IPHRP) is a quarterly experimental price index. It tracks the prices paid for renting property from private landlords in Great Britain.



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Index of Private Housing Rental Prices, April to June 2014

The Index of Private Housing Rental Prices (IPHRP) measures the change in price of property rented by private landlords. The index is published as a series of price indices covering Great Britain, its constituent countries and the English regions.



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Index of Private Housing Rental Prices, Reference Tables June 2014

Full historical monthly series (index values and annual percentage change) of the Index of Private Housing Rental Prices.



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McDonald's Japan Stops Sourcing All Chicken From China

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Price Briefing 18 – 24 July

Barite prices shift while TiO2 consumers offer little hope of improvement



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After Second-Quarter Profit Hit, Hyundai Motor Warns of Firmer Won, Slowing Demand Growth

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Inflation: Another "False Alarm"?

From Gavyn Davies at the Financial Times: Another false alarm on US inflation?

There have been a few false alarms about a possible upsurge in inflation in the US in the past few years, even as core inflation on most measures has remained extremely subdued. ... Another such scare has been brewing recently.

...

It now seems probable that part of the recent jump in core inflation was just a random fluctuation in the data. ... But the main reason for the lack of concern is that wage pressures in the economy have remained stable, on virtually all the relevant measures. ... there has been yet another false alarm on US inflation.

From Ron Insana at CNBC: Inflation is about to fall—and fall hard

I will make a bet with this country's leading inflationistas, who continue to warn that inflation is about to surge, that they are dead wrong. ...



Agricultural commodity prices, excluding meats, have crashed. Corn, wheat and soybean prices have plummeted on expectations of bumper crops around the world — particularly in the United States. ...

...

Likewise, despite geopolitical hot spots around the world, energy prices have also dropped from recent highs. While oil remains stubbornly above $100 a barrel, both at home and abroad. Were it not for recent events in Ukraine and the Middle East, oil prices may have continued their recent dip below that century mark. ...



With respect to raging wage inflation, that argument is also a non-starter. Wages are rising at a 2 percent to 2.5 percent annual rate, hardly the stuff of wage-price spirals....



For years, and on all counts, inflation hawks have been, let's say, premature in calling for a rapid acceleration in inflation.

My view is inflation is not a concern this year.



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Fair Trade Brings Big Sales and a Clear Conscience

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Bromine prices soften in China but remain steady elsewhere

Slowdown in Chinese chemicals industry expected to regain momentum at the end of summer



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Indian barite prices rise as market still awaits tender

Industry fidgets over rumours 2014 contracts may be pushed back to April 2015



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McDonald's Feels 'Bit Deceived' by Audit Results From China Plant

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Tuesday: CPI, Existing Home Sales, Richmond Fed Mfg Survey

Here is a followup on an earlier article concerning short sale fraud, from E. Scott Reckard at the LA Times: Former BofA short-sales employee gets prison term for taking bribes

A former Bank of America mortgage employee was sentenced to 30 months in prison for pocketing $1.2 million in payoffs to approve sales of distressed properties for far less than their actual value.

...

Plea agreements filed by three other defendants at the time of Lauricella's arrest indicated that the manipulation of Southland home sales for illicit profit was widespread.



"It's part of a large, ongoing investigation," Katzenstein said. "There are a large number of related cases."

Short sale fraud was widespread, especially in the 2009 through 2012 period. Fraud has always been a key problem with short sales (the agent represents the "seller" who has no equity in the home - and this creates an obvious agency problem with unscrupulous agents).



There are many types of short sales fraud (money under the table to either seller or agent, agents not actually marketing property, etc.), and unfortunately most of the fraud will never be prosecuted - but we can still hope some more of them will be caught.



Tuesday:

• At 8:30 AM ET, the Consumer Price Index for June. The consensus is for a 0.3% increase in CPI in June and for core CPI to increase 0.2%.



• At 9:00 AM, the FHFA House Price Index for May. This was original a GSE only repeat sales, however there is also an expanded index. The consensus is for a 0.3% increase.



• At 10:00 AM, Existing Home Sales for June from the National Association of Realtors (NAR). The consensus is for sales of 4.99 million on seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) basis. Sales in May were at a 4.89 million SAAR. Economist Tom Lawler estimates the NAR will report sales of 4.96 million SAAR.



• Also at 10:00 AM, the Richmond Fed Survey of Manufacturing Activity for July. The consensus is for a reading of 5.5, up from 3 in June.



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Indian barite prices rise as market industry still awaits tender

Industry fidgets over rumours 2014 contracts may be pushed back to April 2015



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Ads Promote Tennessee as ‘Made’ for Visitors

By STUART ELLIOTT from NYT Business Day http://ift.tt/1sEAgsJ

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Antimony prices resume slide on thin business

Trioxide and metal values fall as Chinese domestic and international demand evaporates



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Analysis of SME tenders (Prologue) by Ceri Evans, Institute for Competition and Procurement Studies

piblogger:

Editor’s Note: Here is the Prologue to the Part 2 post on SME tendering by the Institute of Competition and Procurement Studies.

Originally posted on Procurement Insights EU Edition:

Editor’s Note: Based on the tremendous response we received to Part 2 of the Analysis of SME tenders post by Ceri Evans, we are pleased to accommodate the requests we have received from our readers to share with you Part 1 (Prologue) below.

Ceri Evans – Institute for Competition and Procurement Studies

It has been a long-standing criticism of many SMEs that they feel they do not receive sufficient meaningful feedback from public procurers following the outcome of a procurement exercise.

The word ‘meaningful’ is important, because feedback in this form presents an opportunity for SMEs to improve and put in stronger submissions next time around. At the same time, it also helps prevent the recurrence of suppliers submitting poor submissions that have little chance of success, but which still result in significant transactional and opportunity costs for tenderers and public sector evaluators.

Mindful that poor feedback is often quoted…

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Price Briefing 11 – 16 July

Ilmenite prices fall again while Indian barite tender delay creates anxiety



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Europe Lifts Peugeot Sales Despite Slump Elsewhere

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Indonesia's Jokowi Leads With 80 Percent of Votes Counted: Private Group

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Fertiliser mineral prices holding on to H1 gains

Latest market data from PotashCorp. reinforces reports of market recovery



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Flame retardant mineral price growth stutters

Slowing alumina, antimony and magnesium based chemicals demand drags on product values



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House Price Index - May 2014

A monthly House Price Index (HPI) based on mortgage completions data from the Regulated Mortgage Survey (RMS).



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House Price Index, May 2014

Mix-adjusted average house prices and house price indices for the UK and its component countries and regions.



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House Price Index, May 2014: Annual Tables 20 to 39

UK housing market analysis including house price inflation and distribution of mortgage advances. This House Price Index reference table contains 20 tables relating to the ONS House Price Index.



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Analysis of SME tenders by Ceri Evans, Institute for Competition and Procurement Studies

piblogger:

Editor’s Note: In a special guest post from our European Union Edition, Ceri Evans from The Institute for Competition and Procurement Studies at Bangor University provides a thought provoking article on why SMEs fail in the tendering process.

Originally posted on Procurement Insights EU Edition:

SME’s face many challenges in terms of their response to tenders . . .

This is the second part of an article featuring insights from the Institute for Competition and Procurement Studies (http://ift.tt/1m0yPfU) Tender Review Service (TRS), delivered to in excess of 200 SMEs between 2011 and 2013.

Analysis of SME tenders reviewed as part of the TRS identified a number of common weaknesses endemic to many of the submissions; this short article provides a high level overview of some of these shortcomings.

Unsurprisingly many tenderers were guilty of not being prescriptive enough; and not providing the level of depth, detail and evidence required for evaluators to score them highly. Similarly, their lack of attention to contextualising their submissions to the contract specification was a major source of failure, as was their inability to understand things from the procurer perspective and hence respond appropriately to their questions (in…

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Market oversupply weighs on ilmenite prices

Bulk values drop 10% as availability increases while demand remains flat



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In China, Super Boys Learn to Say, 'I Am Myself'

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Children Found Working at Samsung Supplier in China

By DAVID BARBOZA from NYT Business Day http://ift.tt/W1Bj8W

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Chinese DBM prices steady as market enters H2

Magnesia suppliers resist pressure to drop prices but values could slip towards end of Q3.



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Ukraine fertiliser prices stable despite political turmoil

Stability attributed to seasonal weak market; European nutrient values could increase before autumn planting season



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Trulia: Asking House Prices up 8.1% year-over-year in June

From Trulia chief economist Jed Kolko: Despite Home Price Slowdown, Wages Can’t Keep Up With Prices

In June 2014, prices were up 8.1% year-over-year and 2.6% quarter-over-quarter, compared with 9.5% and 3.1%, respectively, in June 2013. ... But despite this national slowdown in price gains, price increases continue to be widespread, with 97 of 100 metros posting year-over-year price gains – the most since the recovery began. Furthermore, asking prices in June rose at their highest month-over-month rate (1.2%) in sixteen months.



The price slowdown has been particularly sharp in the boom-and-bust markets of California and the Southwest, where the recession was severe, the recovery was dramatic, and the slowdown is now most pronounced. In Phoenix, Las Vegas, Sacramento, and Orange County, price gains have skidded to a stop or gone into reverse in the past quarter after posting gains of more than 20% year-over-year in June 2013. Although these four housing markets all still have average or above-average year-over-year price increases in June 2014, their slowdowns or reversals in the most recent quarter foreshadow a continued deceleration in year-over-year gains ...

...

Rental Affordability Worsens as Rents Rise 5.5% Year-over-Year

Rent increases outpaced wage increases in all of the 25 largest Rents rose more than 10% year-over-year in Miami, Oakland, San Francisco, San Diego, and Denver. Among these five markets with the largest rent increases, all but Denver are among the nation’s least affordable rental markets.

emphasis added

Asking prices had been slowing down, although there was a slight increase in year-over-year prices in June ... in November 2013, year-over-year asking prices were up 12.2%, in December, the year-over-year increase slowed slightly to 11.9%. In January 11.4%, in February 10.4%, in March 10.0%, April 9.0%, May 8.0%, but now 8.1% in June.





Note: These asking prices are SA (Seasonally Adjusted) - and adjusted for the mix of homes - and this suggests further house price increases, but probably at a slower rate, over the next few months on a seasonally adjusted basis.



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Thursday: Unemployment Claims

Here is an updated housing and mortgage forecast from Goldman Sachs economist Hui Shan: Housing at half time: activity picks up while prices slow down

There are clear signs of house price growth deceleration. Across various indices, year over year appreciation rate has declined from double digits to high single digits. ... We update our bottom-up house price forecast model. At the national level, we expect house price growth to fall from 9.0% during the past year to 4.7% in the coming year and 3.0% in the year thereafter.

...

We now expect mortgage rate to rise to 4.5% by year-end.

...

the underlying housing recovery continues. ... Although we see housing activity improving further in the second half of 2014, we expect the pace of the recovery to be moderate.

emphasis added

CR Note: I also expect house price increases to slow, and for activity to pickup going forward. At the end of 2013, mortgage rates were around 4.62%, so Goldman is forecasting rates will down year-over-year (rates are currently down about 45 bps compared to a year ago according to Mortgage News Daily).



Thursday:

• Early: Trulia Price Rent Monitors for June. This is the index from Trulia that uses asking house prices adjusted both for the mix of homes listed for sale and for seasonal factors.



• At 8:30 AM ET, the initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for claims to increase to 316 thousand from 315 thousand.



• At 10:00 AM, the Monthly Wholesale Trade: Sales and Inventories report for May. The consensus is for a 0.6% increase in inventories.



• At 4:30 PM, Speech by Fed Vice Chairman Stanley Fischer, Financial Sector Reform, At the Martin Feldstein Lecture, hosted by the National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, Massachusetts



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Zircon prices decline further as end markets remain weak

Ceramic and refractory grade zircon products hit by Chinese housing and credit troubles



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Photojournalists Push Project in Spain

By DAVID GONZALEZ from NYT Multimedia http://ift.tt/1kD0cgx

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China Faces Tougher Sell in Winter Olympics Bid

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Homeware Retailer Dunelm Full-Year Profit Seen Rising 7 Percent

By REUTERS from NYT Business Day http://ift.tt/VCHu2Z

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Carrefour to Exit India, Shut Five Wholesale Stores

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Shaky antimony ingot demand may keep lid on supply-squeezed price rises

Traders nonchalant on shipment tightness as trioxide prices reflect end market torpor



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Ukraine looks to triple import duties on Russian nitrate fertilisers

Tariffs could push up domestic nutrient costs after investigation finds evidence of predatory pricing by Russian producers



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Price Briefing 27 June – 3 July

Chinese political spat bolsters antimony ingot as iodine slips lower and vermiculite production costs bite



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Mitsubishi Electric Eyes F-35 Missile Deal With Europe's MBDA-Sources

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Fed Chair Yellen: "Pockets of increased risk-taking"

From Fed Chair Janet Yellen: Monetary Policy and Financial Stability. A few excerpts:

I am also mindful of the potential for low interest rates to heighten the incentives of financial market participants to reach for yield and take on risk, and of the limits of macroprudential measures to address these and other financial stability concerns. Accordingly, there may be times when an adjustment in monetary policy may be appropriate to ameliorate emerging risks to financial stability.

...

[M]onetary policy has powerful effects on risk taking. Indeed, the accommodative policy stance of recent years has supported the recovery, in part, by providing increased incentives for households and businesses to take on the risk of potentially productive investments. But such risk-taking can go too far, thereby contributing to fragility in the financial system. This possibility does not obviate the need for monetary policy to focus primarily on price stability and full employment--the costs to society in terms of deviations from price stability and full employment that would arise would likely be significant.

...

In recent years, accommodative monetary policy has contributed to low interest rates, a flat yield curve, improved financial conditions more broadly, and a stronger labor market. These effects have contributed to balance sheet repair among households, improved financial conditions among businesses, and hence a strengthening in the health of the financial sector. Moreover, the improvements in household and business balance sheets have been accompanied by the increased safety of the financial sector associated with the macroprudential efforts I have outlined. Overall, nonfinancial credit growth remains moderate, while leverage in the financial system, on balance, is much reduced. Reliance on short-term wholesale funding is also significantly lower than immediately before the crisis, although important structural vulnerabilities remain in short-term funding markets.



Taking all of these factors into consideration, I do not presently see a need for monetary policy to deviate from a primary focus on attaining price stability and maximum employment, in order to address financial stability concerns. That said, I do see pockets of increased risk-taking across the financial system, and an acceleration or broadening of these concerns could necessitate a more robust macroprudential approach. For example, corporate bond spreads, as well as indicators of expected volatility in some asset markets, have fallen to low levels, suggesting that some investors may underappreciate the potential for losses and volatility going forward. In addition, terms and conditions in the leveraged-loan market, which provides credit to lower-rated companies, have eased significantly, reportedly as a result of a "reach for yield" in the face of persistently low interest rates. The Federal Reserve, the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency, and the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation issued guidance regarding leveraged lending practices in early 2013 and followed up on this guidance late last year. To date, we do not see a systemic threat from leveraged lending, since broad measures of credit outstanding do not suggest that nonfinancial borrowers, in the aggregate, are taking on excessive debt and the improved capital and liquidity positions at lending institutions should ensure resilience against potential losses due to their exposures. But we are mindful of the possibility that credit provision could accelerate, borrower losses could rise unexpectedly sharply, and that leverage and liquidity in the financial system could deteriorate. It is therefore important that we monitor the degree to which the macroprudential steps we have taken have built sufficient resilience, and that we consider the deployment of other tools, including adjustments to the stance of monetary policy, as conditions change in potentially unexpected ways.

emphasis added

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Liquidated Damages and Freakonomics by Tom Moore

piblogger:

Editor’s Note: I wanted to share Tom Moore’s latest post from the Procurement Insights EU Edition because it raises an important question regarding contracts . . . do penalties have the opposite effect on supplier performance?

Originally posted on Procurement Insights EU Edition:

Many of the more old-school contract managers I’ve worked with over the years have always loved liquidated damages (LDs). For many people, there is something satisfying about punishing those suppliers who fail to deliver the requirements of the contract, and LDs are a seemingly perfect vehicle for this. However, as economists know, incentives can be tricky things, people do not always react in the way the incentive is intended. The team over at Freakonomics give an interesting example of this in their article on kindergarten late fines. In essence an experiment was conducted on a sample of kindergartens in Israel to address the problem of parents picking up their children late. To try and reduce the number of late pick-ups a small fine was introduced in some of the kindergartens for parents who were late in collecting their children. Then the unexpected happened:

‘In day cares where the fine was…

View original 433 more words

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Comparison of regional house price indices before and after the financial crisis

London's house price index has increased by 31.6% since its peak before the financial crisis



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Fresh Ink for the Human Canvas

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ISM Manufacturing index declined slightly in June to 55.3

The ISM manufacturing index suggests slightly slower expansion in June than in May. The PMI was at 55.3% in June, down from 55.4% in May. The employment index was at 52.8%, unchanged from 52.8% in May, and the new orders index was at 58.9%, up from 56.9% in May.



From the Institute for Supply Management: June 2014 Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business®

Economic activity in the manufacturing sector expanded in June for the 13th consecutive month, and the overall economy grew for the 61st consecutive month, say the nation's supply executives in the latest Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business®.



The report was issued today by Bradley J. Holcomb, CPSM, CPSD, chair of the Institute for Supply Management® (ISM®) Manufacturing Business Survey Committee. "The June PMI® registered 55.3 percent, a decrease of 0.1 percentage point from May's reading of 55.4 percent, indicating expansion in manufacturing for the 13th consecutive month. The New Orders Index registered 58.9 percent, an increase of 2 percentage points from the 56.9 percent reading in May, indicating growth in new orders for the 13th consecutive month. The Production Index registered 60 percent, 1 percentage point below the May reading of 61 percent. Employment grew for the 12th consecutive month, registering 52.8 percent, the same level of growth as reported in May. Inventories of raw materials remained at 53 percent, the same reading as reported in both May and April. The price of raw materials grew at a slower rate in June, registering 58 percent, down 2 percentage points from May."

emphasis added

Click on graph for larger image.



Here is a long term graph of the ISM manufacturing index.



This was just below expectations of 55.6%.



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Tightening supply chain prompts more price increases from US Silica

Paints, coatings, building and glass sand prices to rise by 10-20% as company expands capacity



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Chinese antimony prices tipped to rise on Vietnam border tensions

Antimony trioxide market remains weak despite increase in feedstock values



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Conflict Minerals Law Starts Working Despite Poor Industry Response

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