Monday 31 August 2015

Restaurant Performance Index increased in July

Here is a minor indicator I follow from the National Restaurant Association: Stronger sales, traffic in July boost RPI
Driven by stronger same-store sales and customer traffic levels, the National Restaurant Association’s Restaurant Performance Index (RPI) posted a solid gain in July.

The RPI stood at 102.7 in July, up 0.7 percent from June and the first gain in three months. In addition, July represented the 29th consecutive month in which the RPI stood above 100, which signifies expansion in the index of key industry indicators.

“July’s RPI gain was fueled primarily by an improvement in the current situation indicators,” said Hudson Riehle, senior vice president of the Research and Knowledge Group for the Association. “Although a solid majority of operators reported higher same-store sales and customer traffic levels in July, their outlook for both sales growth and the economy is more cautious compared to recent months.”
emphasis added
Restaurant Performance Index Click on graph for larger image.

The index increased to 102.7 in July, up from 102.0 in June. (above 100 indicates expansion).

Restaurant spending is discretionary, so even though this is "D-list" data, I like to check it every month. Even with the decline in the index, this is a solid reading.

It appears restaurants are benefiting from lower gasoline prices.

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The Freshman Reading List


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Ceylon graphite steady against flake drops

Continued market pressure pushes flake graphite prices to new lows while high purity vein graphite remains steady against the downturn.

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Sunday 30 August 2015

Sunday Night Futures

A September rate hike is still on the table, from Jon Hilsenrath and Ben Leubsdorf at the WSJ: Fed Appears to Hold Line on Rate Plan
Federal Reserve officials emerged from a week of head-spinning financial turbulence largely sticking to their plan to raise U.S. interest rates before the end of the year.

During the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City’s annual economic symposium here, many policy makers signaled that stock-market volatility and China’s woes haven’t seriously dented their view that the U.S. job market is improving, and that domestic economic output is expanding at a steady, modest pace.
...
“There is good reason to believe that inflation will move higher as the forces holding inflation down—oil prices and import prices, particularly—dissipate further,” said Fed Vice Chairman Stanley Fischer in comments delivered to the conference, which ended Saturday.
Weekend:
Schedule for Week of August 30, 2015

Monday:
• At 9:45 AM ET, the Chicago Purchasing Managers Index for August. The consensus is for a reading of 54.9, up from 54.7 in July.

• At 10:30 AM, the Dallas Fed Manufacturing Survey for August.

From CNBC: Pre-Market Data and Bloomberg futures: currently S&P futures are down 18 and DOW futures are down 140 (fair value).

Oil prices were up over the last week with WTI futures at $44.85 per barrel and Brent at $49.41 per barrel.  A year ago, WTI was at $98, and Brent was at $101 - so prices are down over 50% year-over-year.

Here is a graph from Gasbuddy.com for nationwide gasoline prices. Nationally prices are at $2.47 per gallon (down almost $1.00 per gallon from a year ago).  Gasoline prices will probably continue to decline over the next month or more (follow oil prices down).

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General Mills Sets Ambitious Goal for Greenhouse Gas Cuts


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Friday 28 August 2015

Iranian Film on Prophet Mohammad Stirs Calls for Tehran to Ban It


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Personal Income increased 0.4% in July, Spending increased 0.3%

The BEA released the Personal Income and Outlays report for July:
Personal income increased $67.1 billion, or 0.4 percent ... in July, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $37.4 billion, or 0.3 percent.
...
Real PCE -- PCE adjusted to remove price changes -- increased 0.2 percent in July, compared with an increase of less than 0.1 percent in June. ... The price index for PCE increased 0.3 percent in May, compared with an increase of less than 0.1 percent in April. The PCE price index, excluding food and energy, increased 0.1 percent in May, the same increase as in April.

The July price index for PCE increased 0.3 percent from July a year ago. The July PCE price index, excluding food and energy, increased 1.2 percent from July a year ago.
The following graph shows real Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) through July 2015 (2009 dollars). Note that the y-axis doesn't start at zero to better show the change.

Personal Consumption Expenditures Click on graph for larger image.

The dashed red lines are the quarterly levels for real PCE.

The increase in personal income was at consensus expectations.  And the increase in PCE was slightly below the consensus.

On inflation: The PCE price index increased 0.3 percent year-over-year due to the sharp decline in oil prices. The core PCE price index (excluding food and energy) increased 1.2 percent year-over-year in July.

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Price Briefing 21 – 27 August

Antimony, fluorspar and iodine continue to sink but lithium and zircon look up.

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Thursday 27 August 2015

U.S. Retailers Prod China for Lower Prices After Devaluation


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U.S. Retailers Prod China for Lower Prices After Devaluation


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Friday: July Personal Income and Outlays, Consumer Sentiment

A couple of excerpts from a Merrill Lynch research note, first on the possibility of a September rate hike, and second their forecast for August NFP:
Markets are now pricing a fairly slim chance that the Fed will hike in September, taking to heart the remarks by New York Fed President Bill Dudley midweek that liftoff in September looks “less compelling.” We think a more careful reading of Dudley’s comments suggests that September has not been ruled out. Meanwhile, Vice Chair Stanley Fischer speaks at Jackson Hole this weekend. His comments on inflation and the markets will be most noteworthy, and we expect him to suggest that September remains viable provided the data continue to cooperate and market volatility fades.
CR Note: a September rate hike is still on the table, and Fischer's talk on Saturday will be important.

Note: Saturday at 12:25 PM ET, Speech by Fed Vice Chairman Stanley Fischer, U.S. Inflation Developments, At the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City Economic Symposium, Jackson Hole, Wyoming

And from Merrill on August NFP:
Payrolls likely grew by a healthy 200,000 in August, not far from the 6-month moving average of 210,000. A pick-up in hiring in the household survey could also nudge the jobless rate down to 5.2% from 5.3% — a sign that labor market slack continues to diminish. Average hourly earnings should rise by a steady 0.2% mom, but softer base-year effects will take the yoy rate down a tenth of a percent to 2.0%.
Friday:
• At 8:30 AM ET, Personal Income and Outlays for July. The consensus is for a 0.4% increase in personal income, and for a 0.4% increase in personal spending. And for the Core PCE price index to increase 0.1%.

• At 10:00 AM, University of Michigan's Consumer sentiment index (final for August). The consensus is for a reading of 93.3, up from the preliminary reading of 92.9.

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Customers Embrace Shark Fin Substitutes


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Graphite Price Tracker: August 2015

IM outlines the key flake graphite price trends seen in Q2 2015.

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Early Look at 2016 Cost-Of-Living Adjustments and Maximum Contribution Base

The BLS reported this last week:
The Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W) decreased 0.3 percent over the last 12 months to an index level of 233.806 (1982-84=100). For the month, the index was essentially unchanged prior to seasonal adjustment.
CPI-W is the index that is used to calculate Cost-Of-Living Adjustments (COLA). The calculation dates have changed over time (see Cost-of-Living Adjustments), but the current calculation uses the average CPI-W for the three months in Q3 (July, August, September) and compares to the average for the highest previous average of Q3 months. Note: this is not the headline CPI-U, and is not seasonally adjusted (NSA).

Since the highest Q3 average was last year (Q3 2014), at 234.242, we only have to compare to last year. 

CPI-W and COLA Adjustment Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows CPI-W since January 2000. The red lines are the Q3 average of CPI-W for each year.

Note: The year labeled for the calculation, and the adjustment is effective for December of that year (received by beneficiaries in January of the following year).

By law, COLA can't be negative, so if the average for CPI-W is down year-over-year, COLA is set to zero (no adjustment).

CPI-W was down 0.3% year-over-year in July.  This is early - we need the data for August and September - but if gasoline prices continue to decline, COLA could be zero this year.

Contribution and Benefit Base

The law prohibits an increase in the contribution and benefit base if COLA is not greater than zero. However if the there is even a small increase in COLA, the contribution base will be adjusted using the National Average Wage Index.

From Social Security: Method for determining the base
The formula for determining the OASDI contribution and benefit base is set by law. The formula is applicable only if a cost-of-living increase becomes effective for December of the year in which a determination of the base would ordinarily be made. ...
This is based on a one year lag. The National Average Wage Index is not available for 2014 yet, but wages probably increased again in 2014. If wages increased the same as last year, then the contribution base next year will be increased to around $120,000 from the current $118,500.  However, if COLA is zero, the contribution base will remain at $118,500.

Remember - this is an early look. What matters is average CPI-W for all three months in Q3 (July, August and September).

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TiO2 industry unlikely to recover until 2017 – Moody’s

TiO2 has yet to bottom out as end-use companies continue to “do more with less”. Q2 results poor across the board.

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Q2 GDP Revised up to 3.7%, Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims decreased to 271,000

From the BEA: Gross Domestic Product: First Quarter 2015 (Third Estimate)
Real gross domestic product -- the value of the goods and services produced by the nation's economy less the value of the goods and services used up in production, adjusted for price changes -- increased at an annual rate of 3.7 percent in the second quarter of 2015, according to the "second" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the first quarter, real GDP increased 0.6 percent.

The GDP estimate released today is based on more complete source data than were available for the "advance" estimate issued last month. In the advance estimate, the increase in real GDP was 2.3 percent. With the second estimate for the second quarter, nonresidential fixed investment and private inventory investment increased. ...
emphasis added
Here is a Comparison of Advance and Second Estimates. PCE growth was revised up from 2.9% to 3.1%. Residential investment was revised up from 6.6% to 7.8%.

Solid growth. And above the consensus of 3.2%.

The DOL reported:
In the week ending August 22, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 271,000, a decrease of 6,000 from the previous week's unrevised level of 277,000. The 4-week moving average was 272,500, an increase of 1,000 from the previous week's unrevised average of 271,500.

There were no special factors impacting this week's initial claims.
The previous week was unrevised at 277,000.

The following graph shows the 4-week moving average of weekly claims since 1971.

Click on graph for larger image.


The dashed line on the graph is the current 4-week average. The four-week average of weekly unemployment claims decreased to 272,500.

This was sligthly higher than the consensus forecast of 270,000, and the low level of the 4-week average suggests few layoffs.

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Wednesday 26 August 2015

Last Week: Key Measures Show Low Inflation in July

While I was on vacation, there were several key economic releases. Here is the CPI release ...

Last week the Cleveland Fed released the median CPI and the trimmed-mean CPI this morning:
ccording to the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, the median Consumer Price Index rose 0.2% (1.8% annualized rate) in July. The 16% trimmed-mean Consumer Price Index also rose 0.2% (1.9% annualized rate) during the month. The median CPI and 16% trimmed-mean CPI are measures of core inflation calculated by the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland based on data released in the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ (BLS) monthly CPI report.

[Last week], the BLS reported that the seasonally adjusted CPI for all urban consumers rose 0.1% (1.6% annualized rate) in July. The CPI less food and energy also rose 0.1% (1.6% annualized rate) on a seasonally adjusted basis.
Note: The Cleveland Fed has the median CPI details for July here. Motor fuel was down sharply in July.

Inflation Measures Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows the year-over-year change for these four key measures of inflation. On a year-over-year basis, the median CPI rose 2.3%, the trimmed-mean CPI rose 1.7%, and the CPI less food and energy rose 1.8%. Core PCE is for June and increased 1.3% year-over-year.

On a monthly basis, median CPI was at 1.8% annualized, trimmed-mean CPI was at 1.9% annualized, and core CPI was at 1.6% annualized.

On a year-over-year basis these measures suggest inflation remains below the Fed's target of 2% (median CPI is above 2%).

Inflation is still low.

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We interrupt this SciQuest Series . . . by Jon Hansen

Analysts, however, didn’t share his unwavering confidence, with Stifel, Nicolaus & Co, Inc’s Tom Roderick asking what assurances Wiehe could offer that implementation issues didn’t contribute to the contract dispute.

“How much comfort do you have that we won’t see this sort of situation replicated with other large bodies?” he asked.

Wiehe repeatedly insisted Colorado and Oregon were isolated cases. “The other states are either fully in production or their implementation projects are well underway,” he said. “So we assess the risk as very, very low. Having said that, I’m asking you to take my word for it, and it’s difficult for me to give you other facts other than that.” – from the August 2nd, 2013 Triangle Business Journal article SciQuest shares spill as two customers backpedal

After reading the above, here is a question . . . have you wondered why the SciQuest letter threatening legal action, followed by the SLAPP document, hasn’t deterred me from writing posts?

Would it also surprise you that rather than silencing the market, SciQuest’s actions have actually had the opposite effect?

As indicated previously, everything I have written about SciQuest – for that matter every post on every topic I write – is based on research, experience, expertise, and a rapidly expanding base of information sources.

These are the sources who have provided the needed insights that have helped me to construct a more complete picture, resulting in the commentary that you find within the virtual pages of this blog.

With this understanding, consider the following:

Point 1

In August 2013, SciQuest announced that the company expected two state customers (Colorado and Oregon) to stop paying, and it had adjusted its second-half guidance accordingly.

While assurances were given that implementation issues were not part of the reason for the states’ decision, my sources informed me that this is not the complete story.

Colorado’s procurement people wanted to use SciQuest, but the finance people vetoed the initiative because they could not justify the investment in terms of what was being provided.

They then went on to say, that issues with Oregon were in fact due – at least in part, to implementation challenges. I will get into the specifics of what these challenges were, a little later in this post.

The Triangle Business Journal article was published on August 2nd, 2013, and around that time (August 9th) the stock price was at $19.97

Point 2

On March 21st, 2014, SciQuest’s stock price hit its highest point at $30.41 per share.

Point 3

On August 27th, 2014, The Hartford Courant In The News Auditor section posted an article under the heading “State Audit: UConn Spent $902,000 On Software Licensing Fees It Didn’t Use” (refer to image below.)

The article found that the university had “paid more than $900,000 in licensing fees on SciQuest software for three years, but did not use the software for most of the time.” Pay close attention to this last statement in the context of the Oregon implementation.

UConn Audit

By August 29th, 2014, SciQuest shares had dropped to $15.97

Point 4

Included as part of the list of posts that SciQuest contends are  libelous and/or slanderous, was my November 26th, 2014 post SciQuest “Sales” Execution Troubles?

While I will address all of the listed points of contention in a future post, today I want to focus on point “d.”

Regarding point “d”, the company claims that the statements that “SciQuest’s clients are going to cancel contracts with SciQuest and that the CEO is “dumping shares” are false, and portray SciQuest as a company losing its customers and being abandoned by its leadership.”

Remember, this post was published on November 26th, 2014.

Since then, and as announced in my June 11th, 2015 post The Beginning of the end for SciQuest?, Dartmouth College has stopped using SciQuest.

In that post, I provided a copy of the actual text from an Dartmouth internal e-mail announcing the transition, effective May 31st, 2015. Procurement Insights was the only blog – or for that matter any form of media or otherwise – to share the story.

As an aside, I will address CEO Wiehe’s sale of shares in a separate post.

What wasn’t reported at that same time however, was the fact that Stanford had also made the decision to stop using SciQuest (refer to image below).

Stanford Transitions from SciQuest . . . click to read

Stanford Transitions from SciQuest . . . click to read full document

Then in my August 7th, 2015 post The Ohio Effect: Why SciQuest’s condition may be terminal – which by the way has also been challenged by SciQuest as being libelous and/or slanderous – I indicated that sources informed me that this state was also planning to stop using the vendor’s solution.

So, is the above November 26th post’s assertion based on the information provided by my sources regarding clients cancelling contracts, true or false?

By the way, SciQuest’s share price the day following my June 11th Dartmouth post was sitting at $15.82.

Point 5

As referenced in Point 4, in my August 7th, 2015 post The Ohio Effect: Why SciQuest’s condition may be terminal, sources informed me that Ohio is actively looking to make a move away from the vendor’s solution.

In that post, I had highlighted what the sources described as being several issues behind the decision to seek an alternative to SciQuest.

It should be noted that the vendor is also challenging this post, citing similar points of contention to those related to my November 26th, 2014 post SciQuest “Sales” Execution Troubles?

This includes, but is not limited to, the references to an “implement and walk” model, catalog creation and maintenance being complicated and costly, as well as the suggestion that Ohio is in any way dissatisfied with SciQuest’s services.

On August 7th, when this post was published, SciQuest’s share price was at $11.93

A week after this post was published, SciQuest’s lawyers sent me a letter demanding that I “immediately retract and remove all statements concerning SciQuest and its officers” from my website, and that I “cease and desist from making any further statements regarding SciQuest and its officers.”

My response was to immediately publish the SciQuest Fights Back: A Case of David and Goliath? post.

Besides asking yourself why the Ohio post appears to have been the straw that broke the proverbial camel’s back, the bigger question for today is simply this . . . are the concerns raised by Stifel, Nicolaus & Co, Inc’s Tom Roderick regarding implementation issues warranted?

According to my sources, the answer would be yes.

So what are the issues?

Here they are:

  1. The SciQuest pricing model is a major problem. Specifically, and has explained to me, the need to buy and pay an annual licensing fee for what is know has catalog packs and, the annual fees associated with implementing and using the Spend Director, Order Management and Multi-biz rule engine. This last point is a particular issue for states as opposed to higher ed institutions given the size and diversity of a state’s infrastructure.
  2. Implementation problems – especially at the state level. According to my sources, implementation of the solution within the higher ed sector is not nearly as complex as it is with a state. The problem as described to me, is that SciQuest doesn’t seem to grasp or, is unwilling to grasp, the challenges associated with implementing its solution at the state level. When I was told about these implementation problems, both Oregon and even UConn came to mind.
  3. The third issue as described to me, centers around what was referred to as being “relationship rollover.” Based on what my sources are telling me, the people who may have been originally involved with selecting SciQuest, or those who would be inclined to stay the course, are moving on. The problem occurs when new or different people within the organization step in and question the SciQuest model regarding cost and functionality.

Beyond these three issues, my sources tell me that there seems to be an underlying sentiment that the company’s leadership is arrogant. While I can only go by my reaction to Stephen Wiehe’s request that the broker take his word regarding implementation problems – I personally would never ask someone to simply take my word on something, this is obviously a discussion for another day.

What I can tell you, is that in the same August 2nd, 2013 Triangle Business Journal article, SciQuest CEO Stephen Wiehe was quoted as saying; “while “challenges” are anticipated in the second half, “we expect the negative impacts to be short-lived and these changes do not impact our long-term growth trajectory.”

As of this moment, a little more than 2 years later, his company’s stock is hovering around it’s lowest point ever at $11.00.

While this post will explain why I continue to write despite the threats of legal action from SciQuest, it is perhaps this last point as well as the revelations brought forth in this blog that explains why SciQuest is seeking to – for lack of a better term, shut me up.

As always, I stand by both my research and my sources. However, you should do your own homework and make your own decisions regarding SciQuest, or for that matter any service provider.

Of course, my invitation to Stephen Wiehe to do an interview on my radio show to address the above three issues in particular, remains open.

You can follow my coverage of this story on Twitter using the hashtag #SQSLAPP.

30




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As Stocks Fall, China’s Big Spenders Pull Back


By HIROKO TABUCHI and AMIE TSANG from NYT Business Day http://ift.tt/1LwD8iL
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Zillow Forecast: Expect Case-Shiller to show "Uptick in Appreciation" year-over-year change in July

The Case-Shiller house price indexes for June were released yesterday. Zillow forecasts Case-Shiller a month early, and I like to check the Zillow forecasts since they have been pretty close.

From Zillow: July Case-Shiller: Expect a Slight Uptick in Appreciation
The June S&P/Case-Shiller (SPCS) data published today showed home prices continuing to rise at an annual rate of five percent for the 20-city composite and 4.6 percent for the 10-city composite. The national index has risen 4.5 percent since June 2014.

The non-seasonally adjusted (NSA) 10- and 20-city indices were both down 0.1 percent from May to June. We expect the change in the July SPCS to show increases of 0.8 percent for the 20-city index and 0.7 percent for the 10-City Index.

All Case-Shiller forecasts are shown in the table below. These forecasts are based on today’s June SPCS data release and the July 2015 Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI), release August 24. The SPCS Composite Home Price Indices for July will not be officially released until Tuesday, September 28.
This suggests the year-over-year change for the July Case-Shiller National index will be slightly higher than in the June report.

Zillow Case-Shiller Forecast
  Case-Shiller
Composite 10
Case-Shiller
Composite 20
Case-Shiller
National
NSA SA NSA SA NSA SA
June
Actual YoY
4.6% 4.6% 5.0% 5.0% 4.5% 4.5%
July
Forecast
YoY
4.8% 4.8% 5.2% 5.2% 4.6% 4.6%
July
Forecast
MoM
0.7% 0.1% 0.8% 0.1% 0.7% 0.3%


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Antimony prices crumble under weak demand and China turmoil

Trioxide values remain flat in mid-$6,000s range while ingot values slide.

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Tuesday 25 August 2015

Wednesday: Durable Goods

Wednesday:
• At 7:00 AM ET, the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index.

• At 8:30 AM, Durable Goods Orders for July from the Census Bureau. The consensus is for a 0.4% decrease in durable goods orders.

This is a leading indicator for industry production, from the ACC: Chemical Activity Barometer Follows Global Markets Downward
The Chemical Activity Barometer (CAB), a leading economic indicator created by the American Chemistry Council (ACC), dropped 0.3 percent in August, a marked deceleration of activity from second quarter performance. The declined follows a 0.1 percent gain in July and 0.5 percent gain in both May and June. Data is measured on a three-month moving average (3MMA). Accounting for adjustments, the CAB remains up 1.8 percent over this time last year, also a deceleration of annual growth as compared to this time last year when the barometer logged a 4.2 percent annual gain over 2013.
...
“Chemical, other equity, and product prices all suffered greatly in our latest reading of the Chemical Activity Barometer,” said ACC Chief Economist Kevin Swift. “There continued to be upward momentum in plastic resins for both consumer applications and light vehicles, but we also continue to see declines in oilfield chemicals and U.S. exports overall, largely as a result of softer oil prices and a strong U.S. dollar,” Swift said. Despite these modest headwinds, the Chemical Activity Barometer is still signaling slow gains in business activity into the early part of 2016.


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Real Prices and Price-to-Rent Ratio in June

The year-over-year increase in prices is mostly moving sideways now at between 4% and 5%.. In October 2013, the National index was up 10.9% year-over-year (YoY). In June 2015, the index was up 4.5% YoY.

Here is the YoY change since January 2014 for the National Index:

Month YoY Change
Jan-14 10.5%
Feb-14 10.2%
Mar-14 8.9%
Apr-14 7.9%
May-14 7.0%
Jun-14 6.3%
Jul-14 5.6%
Aug-14 5.1%
Sep-14 4.8%
Oct-14 4.6%
Nov-14 4.6%
Dec-14 4.6%
Jan-15 4.4%
Feb-15 4.3%
Mar-15 4.2%
Apr-15 4.3%
May-15 4.4%
Jun-15 4.5%

Most of the slowdown on a YoY basis is now behind us. This slowdown in price increases was expected by several key analysts, and I think it is good news for housing and the economy.

In the earlier post, I graphed nominal house prices, but it is also important to look at prices in real terms (inflation adjusted).  Case-Shiller, CoreLogic and others report nominal house prices.  As an example, if a house price was $200,000 in January 2000, the price would be close to $276,000 today adjusted for inflation (38%).  That is why the second graph below is important - this shows "real" prices (adjusted for inflation).

It has been almost ten years since the bubble peak.  In the Case-Shiller release this morning, the National Index was reported as being 7.5% below the bubble peak.   However, in real terms, the National index is still about 21% below the bubble peak.

Nominal House Prices

Nominal House PricesThe first graph shows the monthly Case-Shiller National Index SA, the monthly Case-Shiller Composite 20 SA, and the CoreLogic House Price Indexes (through June) in nominal terms as reported.

In nominal terms, the Case-Shiller National index (SA) is back to June 2005 levels, and the Case-Shiller Composite 20 Index (SA) is back to February 2005 levels, and the CoreLogic index (NSA) is back to June 2005.

Real House Prices

Real House PricesThe second graph shows the same three indexes in real terms (adjusted for inflation using CPI less Shelter). Note: some people use other inflation measures to adjust for real prices.

In real terms, the National index is back to May 2003 levels, the Composite 20 index is back to April 2003, and the CoreLogic index back to October 2003.

In real terms, house prices are back to 2003 levels.

Note: CPI less Shelter is down 1.1% year-over-year, so this is pushing up real prices.

Price-to-Rent

In October 2004, Fed economist John Krainer and researcher Chishen Wei wrote a Fed letter on price to rent ratios: House Prices and Fundamental Value. Kainer and Wei presented a price-to-rent ratio using the OFHEO house price index and the Owners' Equivalent Rent (OER) from the BLS.

Price-to-Rent RatioHere is a similar graph using the Case-Shiller National, Composite 20 and CoreLogic House Price Indexes.

This graph shows the price to rent ratio (January 1998 = 1.0).

On a price-to-rent basis, the Case-Shiller National index is back to April 2003 levels, the Composite 20 index is back to January 2003 levels, and the CoreLogic index is back to October 2003.

In real terms, and as a price-to-rent ratio, prices are back to 2003 levels - and the price-to-rent ratio maybe moving a little sideways now.

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Zircon market remains flat but rumours of higher prices paid in China

Sources confirm FOB Australia prices stable within ranges but premium grades are said to be edging up; South African supply may tighten.

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Case-Shiller: National House Price Index increased 4.5% year-over-year in June

S&P/Case-Shiller released the monthly Home Price Indices for June ("June" is a 3 month average of April, May and June prices).

This release includes prices for 20 individual cities, two composite indices (for 10 cities and 20 cities) and the monthly National index.

Note: Case-Shiller reports Not Seasonally Adjusted (NSA), I use the SA data for the graphs.

From S&P: Home Prices Continue Upward Trend According to the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices
The S&P/Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index, covering all nine U.S. census divisions, recorded a slightly higher year-over-year gain with a 4.5% annual increase in June 2015 versus a 4.4% increase in May 2015. The 10-City Composite had marginally lower year-over-year gains, with an increase of 4.6% year-over-year. The 20-City Composite year-over-year pace was virtually unchanged from last month, rising 5.0% year-over-year.
...
Before seasonal adjustment, the National index and 20-City Composite both reported gains of 1.0% month-over-month in June. The 10-City Composite posted a gain of 0.9% month-over-month. After seasonal adjustment, the National index posted a gain of 0.1% while the 10-City and 20-City Composites were both down 0.1% month-over-month. All 20 cities reported increases in June before seasonal adjustment; after seasonal adjustment, nine were down, nine were up, and two were unchanged.
...
“Nationally, home prices continue to rise at a 4-5% annual rate, two to three times the rate of inflation,” says David M. Blitzer, Managing Director and Chairman of the Index Committee at S&P Dow Jones Indices.
emphasis added
Case-Shiller House Prices Indices Click on graph for larger image.

The first graph shows the nominal seasonally adjusted Composite 10, Composite 20 and National indices (the Composite 20 was started in January 2000).

The Composite 10 index is off 14.6% from the peak, and down 0.2% in June (SA).

The Composite 20 index is off 13.3% from the peak, and down 0.1% (SA) in June.

The National index is off 7.5% from the peak, and up 0.1% (SA) in June.  The National index is up 25.0% from the post-bubble low set in December 2011 (SA).

Case-Shiller House Prices Indices The second graph shows the Year over year change in all three indices.

The Composite 10 SA is up 4.6% compared to June 2014.

The Composite 20 SA is up 5.0% year-over-year..

The National index SA is up 4.5% year-over-year.

Prices increased (SA) in 10 of the 20 Case-Shiller cities in June seasonally adjusted.  (Prices increased in 20 of the 20 cities NSA)  Prices in Las Vegas are off 39.5% from the peak, and prices in Denver and Dallas are at new highs (SA).

Case-Shiller CitiesThe last graph shows the bubble peak, the post bubble minimum, and current nominal prices relative to January 2000 prices for all the Case-Shiller cities in nominal terms.

As an example, at the peak, prices in Phoenix were 127% above the January 2000 level. Then prices in Phoenix fell slightly below the January 2000 level, and are now up 51% above January 2000 (51% nominal gain in 15 years).

These are nominal prices, and real prices (adjusted for inflation) are up about 40% since January 2000 - so the increase in Phoenix from January 2000 until now is about 11% above the change in overall prices due to inflation.

Two cities - Denver (up 67% since Jan 2000) and Dallas (up 48% since Jan 2000) - are above the bubble highs (a few other Case-Shiller Comp 20 city are close - Boston, Charlotte, San Francisco, Portland).    Detroit prices are barely above the January 2000 level.

This was close to the consensus forecast. I'll have more on house prices later.

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Monday 24 August 2015

Tuesday: New Home Sales, Case-Shiller House Prices, Richmond Fed Mfg

Tuesday:
• At 8:30 AM: S&P/Case-Shiller House Price Index for June. Although this is the June report, it is really a 3 month average of April, May and June prices. The consensus is for a 5.2% year-over-year increase in the Comp 20 index for June. The Zillow forecast is for the National Index to increase 4.3% year-over-year in June.

• At 9:00 AM, FHFA House Price Index for June 2015. This was originally a GSE only repeat sales, however there is also an expanded index. The consensus is for a 0.4% month-to-month increase for this index.

• At 10:00 AM, New Home Sales for July from the Census Bureau. The consensus is for an increase in sales to 516 thousand Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate (SAAR) in July from 482 thousand in June.

• At 10:00 AM, Richmond Fed Survey of Manufacturing Activity for August.

S&P 500
To put the recent sell-off in perspective, here is a graph (click on graph for larger image) from Doug Short and shows the S&P 500 since the 2007 high ...

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Catching Up: Existing Home Sales in July: 5.49 million SAAR, Highest Pace in Eight Years

While I was on vacation, there were several key economic releases. I'm catching up ...

The NAR reported last week: Existing-Home Sales Maintain Solid Growth in July
Total existing-home sales, which are completed transactions that include single-family homes, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops, increased 2.0 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.59 million in July from a downwardly revised 5.48 million in June. Sales in July remained at the highest pace since February 2007 (5.79 million), have now increased year-over-year for ten consecutive months and are 10.3 percent above a year ago (5.07 million). ...

Total housing inventory at the end of July declined 0.4 percent to 2.24 million existing homes available for sale, and is now 4.7 percent lower than a year ago (2.35 million). Unsold inventory is at a 4.8-month supply at the current sales pace, down from 4.9 months in June.
Existing Home SalesClick on graph for larger image.

This graph shows existing home sales, on a Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate (SAAR) basis since 1993.

Sales in July (5.59 million SAAR) were 2.0% higher than last month, and were 10.3% above the July 2014 rate.

The second graph shows nationwide inventory for existing homes.

Existing Home InventoryAccording to the NAR, inventory decreased to 2.24 million in July from 2.25 million in June.   Headline inventory is not seasonally adjusted, and inventory usually decreases to the seasonal lows in December and January, and peaks in mid-to-late summer.

The third graph shows the year-over-year (YoY) change in reported existing home inventory and months-of-supply. Since inventory is not seasonally adjusted, it really helps to look at the YoY change. Note: Months-of-supply is based on the seasonally adjusted sales and not seasonally adjusted inventory.

Year-over-year Inventory Inventory decreased 4.7% year-over-year in July compared to July 2014.  

Months of supply was at 4.8 months in June.

This was above expectations of sales of 5.40 million.

As always, new home sales are more important for jobs and the economy than existing home sales. Since existing sales are existing stock, the only direct contribution to GDP is the broker's commission. There is usually some additional spending with an existing home purchase - new furniture, etc - but overall the economic impact is small compared to a new home sale. Also I wouldn't be surprised if the seasonally adjusted pace for existing home sales slows over the next several months due to limited inventory.

Inventory is still very low (down 4.7% year-over-year in July). More inventory would probably mean smaller price increases and slightly higher sales, and less inventory means lower sales and somewhat larger price increases. This will be important to watch.

Also, the NAR reported total sales were up 10.3% from July 2014, however normal equity sales were up even more, and distressed sales down sharply.  From the NAR (from a survey that is far from perfect):
Representing the lowest share since NAR began tracking in October 2008, distressed sales — foreclosures and short sales — declined to 7 percent in July from 8 percent in June; they were 9 percent a year ago. Five percent of July sales were foreclosures and 2 percent were short sales.
Last year in July the NAR reported that 9% of sales were distressed sales.

A rough estimate: Sales in July 2014 were reported at 5.07 million SAAR with 9% distressed.  That gives 456 thousand distressed (annual rate), and 4.64 million equity / non-distressed.  In July 2015, sales were 5.59 million SAAR, with 7% distressed.  That gives 391 thousand distressed - a decline of about 14% from July 2014 - and 5.20 million equity.  Although this survey isn't perfect, this suggests distressed sales were down sharply - and normal sales up around 13%.

The following graph shows existing home sales Not Seasonally Adjusted (NSA).

Existing Home Sales NSASales NSA in July (red column) were the highest for July since 2006 (NSA).

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Chinese metspar producers face domestic price surge

Shipments from Mexico and Mongolia are sweeping the market, as producers in China struggle to process rock metspar required for consumption in the steel industry.

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Black Knight: House Price Index up 0.9% in June, 5.1% year-over-year

Note: I follow several house price indexes (Case-Shiller, CoreLogic, Black Knight, Zillow, FHFA, FNC and more). Note: Black Knight uses the current month closings only (not a three month average like Case-Shiller or a weighted average like CoreLogic), excludes short sales and REOs, and is not seasonally adjusted.

From Black Knight: U.S. Home Prices Up 0.9 Percent for the Month; Up 5.1 Percent Year-Over-Year
Today, the Data and Analytics division of Black Knight Financial Services, Inc. (NYSE: BKFS) released its latest Home Price Index (HPI​) report, based on June 2015 residential real estate transactions. The Black Knight HPI combines the company's extensive property and loan-level databases to produce a repeat sales analysis of home prices as of their transaction dates every month for each of more than 18,500 U.S. ZIP codes. The Black Knight HPI represents the price of non-distressed sales by taking into account price discounts for REO and short sales.

For a more in-depth review of this month’s home price trends, including detailed looks at the 20 largest states and 40 largest metros, please download the full Black Knight HPI Report.
The Black Knight HPI increased 0.9% percent in June, and is off 5.8% from the peak in June 2006 (not adjusted for inflation).

The year-over-year increase in the index has been about the same for the last nine months.

The report has data for the 20 largest states, and 40 MSAs.

Black Knight shows prices off 38.5% from the peak in Las Vegas, off 31.5% in Orlando, and 27.9% off from the peak in Riverside-San Bernardino, CA (Inland Empire).

Note: Case-Shiller for June will be released tomorrow.

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Sunday 23 August 2015

Sunday Night Futures

I take a one week vacation, and the market turns ugly.  Oh well ...

From the WSJ: Refinery Woes Stall Gasoline Price Drops
U.S. oil prices briefly dropped below $40 a barrel on Friday—hitting a six-year low that adds to pressure on pump prices for Labor Day road trips. But cheap gasoline isn’t a sure bet everywhere.

Even as most drivers around the country are spending 25% less on fuel than they did a year ago, California drivers have missed out on the gasoline price windfall because of refinery outages. ... Production woes are spreading to other parts of the country, including the Midwest. ...

“Gas prices are not as low as they should be because of unexpected problems at major refineries and strong demand from drivers,” said Michael Green, a AAA spokesman. The group says the nationwide average could fall to $2 a gallon this year, but only if there are no more production hiccups.
Weekend:
Schedule for Week of August 23, 2015

Monday:
• At 8:30 AM ET, the Chicago Fed National Activity Index for July. This is a composite index of other data.

From CNBC: Pre-Market Data and Bloomberg futures: currently S&P futures are down 46 and DOW futures are down 400 (fair value).

Oil prices were down over the last week with WTI futures at $39.43 per barrel and Brent at $44.52 per barrel.  A year ago, WTI was at $94, and Brent was at $100 - so prices are down over 50% year-over-year.

Here is a graph from Gasbuddy.com for nationwide gasoline prices. Nationally prices are at $2.60 per gallon (down about $0.84 per gallon from a year ago).  Gasoline prices should follow oil prices down - once the refinery issues are resolved.

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Schedule for Week of August 23, 2015

I'm back from vacation and starting to catch up!

The key reports this week are July New Home sales on Tuesday, the second estimate of Q2 GDP on Thursday, and Case-Shiller house prices on Tuesday.

----- Monday, August 24th -----

8:30 AM ET: Chicago Fed National Activity Index for July. This is a composite index of other data.

----- Tuesday, August 25th -----

Case-Shiller House Prices Indices9:00 AM: S&P/Case-Shiller House Price Index for June. Although this is the June report, it is really a 3 month average of April, May and June prices.

This graph shows the nominal seasonally adjusted National Index, Composite 10 and Composite 20 indexes through the May 2015 report (the Composite 20 was started in January 2000).

The consensus is for a 5.2% year-over-year increase in the Comp 20 index for June. The Zillow forecast is for the National Index to increase 4.3% year-over-year in June.

9:00 AM: FHFA House Price Index for June 2015. This was originally a GSE only repeat sales, however there is also an expanded index.  The consensus is for a 0.4% month-to-month increase for this index.

New Home Sales10:00 AM: New Home Sales for July from the Census Bureau.

This graph shows New Home Sales since 1963. The dashed line is the June sales rate.

The consensus is for an increase in sales to 516 thousand Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate (SAAR) in July from 482 thousand in June.

10:00 AM: Richmond Fed Survey of Manufacturing Activity for August.

----- Wednesday, August 26th -----

7:00 AM: The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index.

8:30 AM: Durable Goods Orders for July from the Census Bureau. The consensus is for a 0.4% decrease in durable goods orders.

----- Thursday, August 27th -----

All day: the Kansas City Fed Hosts Symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming (Thursday, Friday, and Saturday).

8:30 AM: The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released.  The consensus is for 270 thousand initial claims, down from 277 thousand the previous week.

8:30 AM: Gross Domestic Product, 2nd quarter 2015 (second estimate). The consensus is that real GDP increased 3.2% annualized in Q2, revised up from 2.3%  in the advance estimate.

10:00 AM: Pending Home Sales Index for July. The consensus is for a 1.0% increase in the index.

11:00 AM: the Kansas City Fed manufacturing survey for August.

----- Friday, August 28th -----

8:30 AM ET: Personal Income and Outlays for July. The consensus is for a 0.4% increase in personal income, and for a 0.4% increase in personal spending. And for the Core PCE price index to increase 0.1%.

10:00 AM: University of Michigan's Consumer sentiment index (final for August). The consensus is for a reading of 93.3, up from the preliminary reading of 92.9.

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Saturday 22 August 2015

On Recession Calls

Note: CR is on vacation, and I will return on Sunday, August 23rd.

No one is perfect, although in January 2007 I did forecast a recession starting in 2007. And I was able to call the bottom in 2009.

Here are some recent posts on recessions:

From January 2015: Predicting the Next Recession
Recently there has been some discussion of a recession in 2015. That seems very unlikely to me - I'm not even on "recession watch".
From March 2013: Business Cycles and Markets
I've been asked several times about the recent ECRI recession call (obviously I disagreed with their incorrect recession call in 2011 - I wasn't even on recession watch then and I'm not on recession watch now - and I also think ECRI is wrong about a recession starting in mid-2012). ...

It seems to me ECRI is trying to make this an academic exercise and hoping for some significant downward revisions. Right now the data doesn't indicate a recession in 2012, but, as Menzie Chinn notes, "all of these series will be revised, so one wouldn’t want to state definitively we are not in a recession – therein lies the path to embarrassment. But the case still has to be made for recession."

But why do we care? ...

Why is there so much focus on the business cycle? For companies, especially cyclical companies, the reason is obvious – it helps with planning, staffing and investment.

But why are investors so focused on the business cycle? Obviously earnings decline in a recession, and stock prices fall too. The following graph shows the year-over-year (YoY) change in the S&P 500 (using average monthly prices) since 1970. Notice that the market usually declines YoY in a recession.
...
So calling a recession isn’t just an academic exercise, there is some opportunity to preserve capital.
Note: From June 2015: ECRI Admits Incorrect Recession Call

CR Note: I will be returning tomorrow (unless I change my mind), and I should start posting Sunday evening or Monday morning. Best to all!

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Friday 21 August 2015

Paid Notice: Deaths KRONFELD, FRED N.


By Unknown Author from NYT Paid Death Notices http://ift.tt/1I1hdvd
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For the procurement people among you, have a look at the latest YQ Matrix raw material and semi-finished prices. For: Prices on other websites.

Weak graphite demand resists Tianjin effect on prices

Price Review: The explosion at the Chinese port last week has had a limited impact on graphite prices, although it raised concern for small-scale miners, as environmental pressures mount.

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2012: Calling the House Price Bottom

Note: CR is on vacation, and I will return on Sunday, August 23rd.

In 2005 and 2006, I was researching previous housing bubble / busts to try to predict what would happen following the bursting of the housing bubble.

So, in April 2008, when many pundits were calling the housing bottom, I wrote: Housing Bust Duration
After another year (or two) of rapidly falling prices, it's very likely that real prices will continue to fall - but at a slower pace. During the last few years of the bust, real prices will be flat or decline slowly - and the conventional wisdom will be that homes are a poor investment.

The Los Angeles bust took 86 months in real terms from peak to trough (about 7 years) using the Case-Shiller index. If the Composite 20 bust takes a similar amount of time, the real price bottom will happen in early 2013 or so.
And then in February 2012 I wrote: The Housing Bottom is Here
There are several reasons I think that house prices are close to a bottom. First prices are close to normal looking at the price-to-rent ratio and real prices (especially if prices fall another 4% to 5% NSA between the November Case-Shiller report and the March report). Second the large decline in listed inventory means less downward pressure on house prices, and third, I think that several policy initiatives will lessen the pressure from distressed sales (the probable mortgage settlement, the HARP refinance program, and more).
And in March 2013, I wrote about the two bottoms - one for activity and the other for prices: Housing: The Two Bottoms
I pointed out there are usually two bottoms for housing: the first for new home sales, housing starts and residential investment, and the second bottom is for house prices.
...
[I]t appears activity bottomed in 2009 through 2011 (depending on the measure) and house prices bottomed in early 2012.


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Price Briefing 14 – 20 August

Flat pricing in fluorspar, graphite and mineral sands persists despite renminbi devaluation and confidence erosion.

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Thursday 20 August 2015

Paid Notice: Deaths KRONFELD, FRED N.


By Unknown Author from NYT Paid Death Notices http://ift.tt/1J8Loom
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#TBT How not to abandon your e-procurement initiative by Jon Hansen

Before launching the Procurement Insights blog in May of 2007, I used to do quite a bit of writing for what would now be referred to as “traditional” mediums.

The following is an article I wrote that was first published in the October 2006 issue of Summit Magazine – a publication that focuses on the Canadian Public Sector.

What is interesting is that in reading it today, many of the key points and references to expert insights such as those provided by Bill McAneny and Mark Henricks, appear to be as relevant now as they were back then . . . perhaps even more so.

Anyway, have a read and feel free to weigh in with any comments

Summit Oct. 2006A

Click here to read the article in it’s entirety.

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