Inventory was up year-over-year in April. This is the second consecutive months with a YoY increase in inventory, following fifteen consecutive months of YoY declines in Phoenix. This could be a significant change.
The Arizona Regional Multiple Listing Service (ARMLS) reports (table below):
1) Overall sales in April were up 0.8% year-over-year.
2) Cash Sales (frequently investors) were down to 23.8% of total sales.
3) Active inventory is now up 4.9% year-over-year.
More inventory (a theme in 2014) - and less investor buying - suggested price increases would slow sharply in 2014. And prices increases did slow in 2014, only increasing 2.4% according to Case-Shiller.
In 2015, with falling inventory, prices increased a little faster - Prices were up 6.3% in 2015 according to Case-Shiller.
Now inventory is increasing a little again, and - if this trend continues in Phoenix - price increases will probably slow.
| April Residential Sales and Inventory, Greater Phoenix Area, ARMLS | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sales | YoY Change Sales |
Cash | Percent Cash | Inventory | YoY Change | |
| Apr-08 | 4,8751 | --- | 986 | 20.2% | 55,7261 | --- |
| Apr-09 | 8,564 | 75.7% | 3,464 | 40.4% | 44,165 | -20.7% |
| Apr-10 | 9,261 | 8.1% | 3,641 | 39.3% | 41,756 | -5.5% |
| Apr-11 | 9,328 | 0.7% | 4,489 | 48.1% | 34,515 | -17.3% |
| Apr-12 | 8,438 | -9.5% | 4,013 | 47.6% | 21,125 | -38.8% |
| Apr-13 | 8,744 | 3.6% | 3,670 | 42.0% | 20,083 | -4.9% |
| Apr-14 | 7,656 | -12.4% | 2,469 | 32.2% | 29,889 | 48.8% |
| Apr-15 | 8,368 | 9.3% | 2,120 | 25.3% | 25,950 | -13.2% |
| Apr-16 | 8,437 | 0.8% | 2,008 | 23.8% | 27,232 | 4.9% |
| 1 April 2008 does not include manufactured homes, ~100 more | ||||||
from Calculated Risk http://ift.tt/1ZxZt58
via YQ Matrix
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