Zillow Forecast: Expect Case-Shiller National House Price Index up 4.0% year-over-year change in May

The Case-Shiller house price indexes for April were released two weeks ago. Zillow forecasts Case-Shiller a month early, and I like to check the Zillow forecasts since they have been pretty close.

From Zillow: Case-Shiller Expected to Continue Recent Leveling-Off Trend in May

The April S&P/Case-Shiller (SPCS) data published [2 weeks ago] showed home prices continuing to rise slightly less than 5 percent annually for both the 10- and 20-city indices, and slightly more than 4 percent annually for the national index. April marks the eighth consecutive month in which the national home price index has appreciated at a less than 5 percent annual appreciation rate (seasonally adjusted).

In April, the 10-city index appreciated at an annual rate of 4.6 percent, compared to 4.9 percent for the 20-City Index (SA). The non-seasonally adjusted (NSA) 10-City Index was up 1 percent month-over-month, while the 20-City index rose 1.1 percent (NSA) from March to April. We expect the change from April to May to show increases of more than 1 percent (NSA) for both the 10- and 20-city indices.

All Case-Shiller forecasts are shown in the table below. ... Officially, the SPCS Composite Home Price Indices for May will not be released until Tuesday, July 28.

So the year-over-year change in for May Case-Shiller National index will be about the same as in the April report.

Zillow Case-Shiller Forecast
	Case-Shiller Composite 10		Case-Shiller Composite 20		Case-Shiller National
	NSA	SA	NSA	SA	NSA	SA
April Actual YoY	4.6%	4.6%	4.9%	4.9%	4.2%	4.2%
May Forecast YoY	4.7%	4.7%	5.0%	5.0%	4.0%	4.0%
May Forecast MoM	1.1%	0.2%	1.2%	0.3%	1.0%	0.0%

from Calculated Risk http://ift.tt/1K41Oyo
via YQ Matrix