Monday, 11 July 2016

Phoenix Real Estate in June: Sales up 9%, Inventory up 7% YoY

This is a key housing market to follow since Phoenix saw a large bubble / bust followed by strong investor buying.

Inventory was up 6.5% year-over-year in June.  This is the fourth consecutive months with a YoY increase in inventory, following fifteen consecutive months of YoY declines in Phoenix.  This could be a significant change.

The Arizona Regional Multiple Listing Service (ARMLS) reports (table below):

1) Overall sales in June were up 8.6% year-over-year.

2) Cash Sales (frequently investors) were down to 20.9% of total sales.

3) Active inventory is now up 6.5% year-over-year.  

More inventory (a theme in 2014) - and less investor buying - suggested price increases would slow sharply in 2014.  And prices increases did slow in 2014, only increasing 2.4% according to Case-Shiller.

In 2015, with falling inventory, prices increased a little faster -  Prices were up 6.3% in 2015 according to Case-Shiller.

Now inventory is increasing a little again, and - if this trend continues in Phoenix - price increases will probably slow.

June Residential Sales and Inventory, Greater Phoenix Area, ARMLS
  Sales YoY
Change
Sales
Cash
Sales
Percent
Cash
Active
Inventory
YoY
Change
Inventory
June 2008 5,748 --- 1,093 19.0% 53,8262 ---
June 2009 9,325 62.2% 3,443 36.9% 38,358 ---2
June 2010 9,278 -0.5% 3,498 37.7% 41,869 9.2%
June 2011 11,134 20.0% 5,001 44.9% 29,203 -30.3%
June 2012 9,133 -18.0% 4,272 46.8% 19,857 -32.0%
June 2013 8,150 -10.8% 3,055 37.5% 19,541 -1.6%
June 2014 7,239 -11.2% 1,854 25.6% 27,954 43.1%
June 2015 8,273 20.5% 2,005 23.0% 23,377 -16.4%
June 2016 8,986 8.6% 1,875 20.9% 24,898 6.5%
1 June 2008 does not include manufactured homes, ~100 more
2 June 2008 Inventory includes pending


from Calculated Risk http://ift.tt/29D6ukY
via YQ Matrix

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