Following the UK referendum, we have downgraded our global growth forecast, sharply in the UK and more modestly elsewhere. Increased uncertainty and deteriorating terms of trade are likely to subtract a cumulative 2¾% from UK GDP, and we now expect the economy to enter a mild recession by early 2017. We estimate the cumulative hit to Euro area GDP at ½% and have cut our growth forecast over the next two years to 1¼%. We have also slightly shaved our H2 2016 forecast for US growth to 2%Weekend:
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However, the risks to this forecast are significant and further downward adjustments could well follow.
• Schedule for Week of June 26, 2016
• Largest 5-year Population Cohorts are now "20 to 24" and "25 to 29"
• June 2016: Unofficial Problem Bank list declines to 203 Institutions, Q2 2016 Transition Matrix
Monday:
• At 10:30 AM ET, the Dallas Fed Survey of Manufacturing Activity for June.
From CNBC: Pre-Market Data and Bloomberg futures: S&P are down 22 and DOW futures are down 151 (fair value).
Oil prices were down over the last week with WTI futures at $47.54 per barrel and Brent at $48.41 per barrel. A year ago, WTI was at $59, and Brent was at $60 - so prices are down 20% year-over-year.
Here is a graph from Gasbuddy.com for nationwide gasoline prices. Nationally prices are at $2.31 per gallon (down about $0.45 per gallon from a year ago).
from Calculated Risk http://ift.tt/28XStAn
via YQ Matrix
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