Wednesday, 5 August 2015

Phoenix Real Estate in July: Sales Up 17%, Inventory DOWN 15% Year-over-year

This is a key distressed market to follow since Phoenix saw a large bubble / bust followed by strong investor buying.  These key markets hopefully show us changes in trends for sales and inventory.

For the eight consecutive month, inventory was down year-over-year in Phoenix. This is a significant change from last year.

The Arizona Regional Multiple Listing Service (ARMLS) reports (table below):

1) Overall sales in July were up 16.6% year-over-year.

2) Cash Sales (frequently investors) were down to 21.9% of total sales.

3) Active inventory is now down 15.3% year-over-year.  

More inventory (a theme in 2014) - and less investor buying - suggested price increases would slow sharply in 2014.  And prices increases did slow in 2014, only increasing 2.4% according to Case-Shiller.

Now, with falling inventory, prices might increase a little faster in 2015 (something to watch if inventory continues to decline).   Prices are already up 2.1% through May (increasing faster than in 2014).

July Residential Sales and Inventory, Greater Phoenix Area, ARMLS
  Sales YoY
Change
Sales
Cash
Sales
Percent
Cash
Active
Inventory
YoY
Change
Inventory
Jul-08 5,9741 --- --- --- 54,5272 ---
Jul-09 9,095 52.2% 3,269 35.9% 38,024 ---2
Jul-10 7,101 -21.9% 2,901 40.9% 42,887 12.8%
Jul-11 8,397 18.3% 3,779 45.0% 27,663 -35.5%
Jul-12 7,152 -14.8% 3,214 44.9% 20,384 -26.3%
Jul-13 8,214 14.8% 2,944 35.8% 20,049 -1.6%
Jul-14 6,790 -17.3% 1,681 24.8% 27,081 35.1%
Jul-15 7,915 16.6% 1,731 21.9% 22,940 -15.3%
1 July 2008 does not include manufactured homes, ~100 more
2 July 2008 Inventory includes pending


from Calculated Risk http://ift.tt/1MPByua
via YQ Matrix

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