Restaurant Performance Index shows Expansion in February

Here is a minor indicator I follow from the National Restaurant Association: Softer sales offset by stronger optimism in February's RPI

Despite dampened sales and customer traffic levels as a result of extreme weather in parts of the country, the National Restaurant Association’s Restaurant Performance Index (RPI) held relatively steady in February. The RPI stood at 102.6 in February, down slightly from a level of 102.7 in January.



In addition, February marked the 24th consecutive month in which the RPI stood above 100, which signifies expansion in the index of key industry indicators.



“With same-store sales and customer traffic levels being impacted by challenging weather conditions in parts of the country, the Current Situation component of the RPI declined in February,” said Hudson Riehle, senior vice president of the Research and Knowledge Group for the Association. “However, this was offset by a solid improvement in the Expectations component of the index, as restaurant operators are increasingly optimistic about business conditions in the months ahead. As a result, the overall RPI held relatively steady in February.”

emphasis added

Click on graph for larger image.



The index decreased to 102.6 in February, down from 102.7 in January. (above 100 indicates expansion).



Restaurant spending is discretionary, so even though this is "D-list" data, I like to check it every month. This is another solid reading - and it is likely restaurants are benefiting from lower gasoline prices and are having to raise wages - a little - to attract and retain workers.



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Antimony trioxide prices sink to half of 2011 levels

Resumption of mining and smelting activity in China hammers prices as demand remains weak.



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Yoox and Net-a-Porter Combine for Big Data Fashion Domination

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Tuesday: Case-Shiller House Prices, Chicago PMI

From the WSJ: Fed’s Fischer Floats Ideas for Regulating Shadow Banks

The Federal Reserve’s No. 2 official floated a series of ideas for regulating nonbank financial companies, the latest indication that top U.S. policy makers are focusing on risks in the so-called shadow banking sector.



“While there has been progress on the financial reform front, we should not be complacent about the stability of the financial system,” said Fed Vice Chairman Stanley Fischer in remarks prepared for a conference here hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta. He noted existing rules create an incentive for risky activities to move into less-regulated financial firms and said “we should expect that further reforms will certainly be needed down the road.”

Tuesday:

• 9:00 AM ET, the S&P/Case-Shiller House Price Index for January. Although this is the January report, it is really a 3 month average of November, December and January prices. The consensus is for a 4.6% year-over-year increase in the National Index for January. The Zillow forecast is for the National Index to increase 4.6% year-over-year in January, and for prices to increase 0.5% month-to-month seasonally adjusted.



• At 9:45 AM, the Chicago Purchasing Managers Index for March. The consensus is for a reading of 50.2, up from 45.8 in February.



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The Truck That Sparked Our Marriage Back to Life

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Yellen: Normalizing Monetary Policy: Prospects and Perspectives

From Fed Chair Janet Yellen: Normalizing Monetary Policy: Prospects and Perspectives. Excerpts:

Why Might an Increase in the Federal Funds Rate Be Warranted Later This Year?

The Committee's decision about when to begin reducing accommodation will depend importantly on how economic conditions actually evolve over time. Like most of my FOMC colleagues, I believe that the appropriate time has not yet arrived, but I expect that conditions may warrant an increase in the federal funds rate target sometime this year. So let me spell out the reasoning that underpins this view.



I would first note that the current stance of monetary policy is clearly providing considerable economic stimulus. The near-zero setting for the federal funds rate has facilitated a sizable reduction in labor market slack over the past two years and appears to be consistent with further substantial gains. A modest increase in the federal funds rate would be highly unlikely to halt this progress, although such an increase might slow its pace somewhat.



Second, we need to keep in mind the well-established fact that the full effects of monetary policy are felt only after long lags. This means that policymakers cannot wait until they have achieved their objectives to begin adjusting policy. I would not consider it prudent to postpone the onset of normalization until we have reached, or are on the verge of reaching, our inflation objective. Doing so would create too great a risk of significantly overshooting both our objectives of maximum sustainable employment and 2 percent inflation, potentially undermining economic growth and employment if the FOMC is subsequently forced to tighten policy markedly or abruptly. In addition, holding rates too low for too long could encourage inappropriate risk-taking by investors, potentially undermining the stability of financial markets. That said, we must be reasonably confident at the time of the first rate increase that inflation will move up over time to our 2 percent objective, and that such an action will not impede continued solid growth in employment and output.



An important factor working to increase my confidence in the inflation outlook will be continued improvement in the labor market. A substantial body of theory, informed by considerable historical evidence, suggests that inflation will eventually begin to rise as resource utilization continues to tighten.2 It is largely for this reason that a significant pickup in incoming readings on core inflation will not be a precondition for me to judge that an initial increase in the federal funds rate would be warranted. With respect to wages, I anticipate that real wage gains for American workers are likely to pick up to a rate more in line with trend labor productivity growth as employment settles in at its maximum sustainable level. We could see nominal wage growth eventually running notably higher than the current roughly 2 percent pace. But the outlook for wages is highly uncertain even if price inflation does move back to 2 percent and labor market conditions continue to improve as projected. For example, we cannot be sure about the future pace of productivity growth; nor can we be sure about other factors, such as global competition, the nature of technological change, and trends in unionization, that may also influence the pace of real wage growth over time. These factors, which are outside of the Federal Reserve's control, likely explain why real wages have failed to keep pace with productivity growth for at least the past 15 years. For such reasons, we can never be sure what growth rate of nominal wages is consistent with stable consumer price inflation, and this uncertainty limits the usefulness of wage trends as an indicator of the Fed's progress in achieving its inflation objective.



I have argued that a pickup in neither wage nor price inflation is indispensable for me to achieve reasonable confidence that inflation will move back to 2 percent over time. That said, I would be uncomfortable raising the federal funds rate if readings on wage growth, core consumer prices, and other indicators of underlying inflation pressures were to weaken, if market-based measures of inflation compensation were to fall appreciably further, or if survey-based measures were to begin to decline noticeably.



Under normal circumstances, simple monetary policy rules, such as the one proposed by John Taylor, could help us decide when to raise the federal funds rate. Even with core inflation running below the Committee's 2 percent objective, Taylor's rule now calls for the federal funds rate to be well above zero if the unemployment rate is currently judged to be close to its normal longer-run level and the "normal" level of the real federal funds rate is currently close to its historical average. But the prescription offered by the Taylor rule changes significantly if one instead assumes, as I do, that appreciable slack still remains in the labor market, and that the economy's equilibrium real federal funds rate--that is, the real rate consistent with the economy achieving maximum employment and price stability over the medium term--is currently quite low by historical standards.Under assumptions that I consider more realistic under present circumstances, the same rules call for the federal funds rate to be close to zero. Moreover, I would assert that simple rules are, well, too simple, and ignore important complexities of the current situation, about which I will have more to say shortly.



The FOMC will, of course, carefully deliberate about when to begin the process of removing policy accommodation. But the significance of this decision should not be overemphasized, because what matters for financial conditions and the broader economy is the entire expected path of short-term interest rates and not the precise timing of the first rate increase. The spending and investment decisions the FOMC seeks to influence depend primarily on expectations of policy well into the future, as embedded in longer-term interest rates and other asset prices. More important than the timing of the Committee's initial policy move will be the strategy the Committee deploys in adjusting the federal funds rate over time, in response to economic developments, to achieve its dual mandate. Market participants' perceptions of that reaction function and the implications for the likely longer-run trajectory of short-term interest rates will influence the borrowing costs faced by households and businesses, including the rates on corporate bonds, auto loans, and home mortgages.

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Final March Consumer Sentiment at 93.0

Click on graph for larger image.



The final University of Michigan consumer sentiment index for March was at 93.0, up from the preliminary estimate of 91.2, and down from 95.4 in February.



This was above the consensus forecast of 91.8. Gasoline prices have probably been the key factor for the recent changes in sentiment.



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Price Briefing 20 – 26 March

Albemarle hikes bromine prices; phosphate rock export values flat for last six months.



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Post-Election Unrest Could Hamper Aid Efforts in Nigeria

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Albemarle ratchets up bromine prices by 30%

Increases will not affect oilfield clear brine solutions; rise likely driven by struggling flame retardant profitability.



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As Dollar Heats Up Overseas, U.S. Manufacturers Feel a Chill

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Thursday: Unemployment Claims, Kansas City Mfg Survey

Some excerpts from a research piece by Goldman Sachs economist Kris Dawsey: Core Inflation Still Has Room to Fall

... With the PPI and CPI reports already in hand for the month, we think that the core PCE price index—the Fed’s preferred inflation measure—will post an above-trend 0.20% increase in February. ... In light of the latest news, one might be tempted to wonder whether we have seen the bottom on core inflation, which could help the Fed to be "reasonably confident" that inflation will be moving back to its target over the medium term—a precondition for the first rate hike.



We ... find that in the near term downward pressure on core inflation from the effects of the stronger dollar and energy price pass-through are likely to overwhelm upward pressure from diminished slack in the economy. ... Recent firmness in shelter inflation—which appears insensitive to dollar and oil effects—is likely to persist, but we think that core goods inflation will probably move down further. Our bottom-up analysis suggests that headline and core consumer prices will probably bottom around the middle of the year ...

Thursday:

• 8:30 AM ET, the initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for claims to increase to 293 thousand from 291 thousand.



• At 11:00 AM, the Kansas City Fed manufacturing survey for March.



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Moroccan phosphate rock prices remain flat

Prices unchanged in last six months but rise 13% year-on-year.



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Coke's Zero Tolerance for Land Grabs Proves Difficult to Fulfill

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AP Investigation: Slavery Taints Global Supply of Seafood

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AP Investigation: Are Slaves Catching the Fish You Buy?

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BLS: CPI increased 0.2% in February, Core CPI increased 0.2%

From the BLS:

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.2 percent in February on a seasonally adjusted basis, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index was unchanged before seasonal adjustment.



The seasonally adjusted increase in the all items index was broad-based, with increases in shelter, energy, and food indexes all contributing. The energy index rose after a long series of declines, increasing 1.0 percent as the gasoline index turned up after falling in recent months. The food index, unchanged last month, also rose in February, though major grocery store food group indexes were mixed.



The index for all items less food and energy rose 0.2 percent in February, the same increase as in January.

emphasis added

I'll post a graph later today after the Cleveland Fed releases the median and trimmed-mean CPI. This was at the consensus forecast of a 0.2% increase for CPI, and above the forecast of a 0.1% increase in core CPI.



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House Price Index - January 2015

Monthly output based on mortgage completions data from the Regulated Mortgage Survey (RMS).



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House Price Index, January 2015

Mix-adjusted average house prices and house price indices for the UK and its component countries and regions.



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House Price Index, January 2015: Annual Tables 20 to 39

UK housing market analysis including house price inflation and distribution of mortgage advances. Contains 20 tables relating to the ONS House Price Index.



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Report: Japan Productivity Gains Key to Staving Off Decline

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Tuesday: New Home Sales, CPI, Richmond Fed Mfg

With oil and gasoline prices up a little in February compared to January, CPI will probably show a positive monthly change for the first time since October. The CPI might still be down year-over-year - or close to unchanged.



As an example, WTI oil averaged $47.22 per barrel in January and increased to $50.58 in February. However oil and gasoline prices have declined again in March - WTI was at $47.42 today - and will push down inflation again in March.



Tuesday:

• 8:30 AM ET, the Consumer Price Index for February. The consensus is for a 0.2% increase in CPI, and for core CPI to increase 0.1%.



• At 9:00 AM, the FHFA House Price Index for January 2015. This was originally a GSE only repeat sales, however there is also an expanded index.



• At 10:00 AM, New Home Sales for February from the Census Bureau. The consensus is for a decrease in sales to 475 thousand Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate (SAAR) in February from 481 thousand in January.



• Also at 10:00 AM, the Richmond Fed Survey of Manufacturing Activity for March.



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Philly Fed: State Coincident Indexes increased in 46 states in January

From the Philly Fed:

The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia has released the coincident indexes for the 50 states for January 2015. In the past month, the indexes increased in 46 states, decreased in two, and remained stable in two, for a one-month diffusion index of 88. Over the past three months, the indexes increased in 48 states and decreased in two, for a three-month diffusion index of 92.

Note: These are coincident indexes constructed from state employment data. An explanation from the Philly Fed:

The coincident indexes combine four state-level indicators to summarize current economic conditions in a single statistic. The four state-level variables in each coincident index are nonfarm payroll employment, average hours worked in manufacturing, the unemployment rate, and wage and salary disbursements deflated by the consumer price index (U.S. city average). The trend for each state’s index is set to the trend of its gross domestic product (GDP), so long-term growth in the state’s index matches long-term growth in its GDP.

Click on graph for larger image.



This is a graph is of the number of states with one month increasing activity according to the Philly Fed. This graph includes states with minor increases (the Philly Fed lists as unchanged).



In January, 47 states had increasing activity (including minor increases). This measure has been moving up and down, and is in the normal range for a recovery.





Here is a map of the three month change in the Philly Fed state coincident indicators. This map was all red during the worst of the recession, and is almost all green again.



It seems likely that several oil producing states will turn red sometime in 2015 - possibly Texas, North Dakota, Alaska or Oklahoma.



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How Winning Isn’t The Only Thing?

piblogger:

Editor’s Note: To what extent has procurement evolved beyond the concept that to win, one must get the better of their suppliers?

Originally posted on The Remarkable Leader:

How many people equate success with conquest?

In other words, believe that we live in a dog-eat-dog world in which, while maybe not the only way, the best way to get ahead, is at bettering someone else.

I thought about this perspective recently, when I read an article discussing how the purchasing profession is trying to move away from the adversarial mindset that dominates how they negotiate with their suppliers.

References were made to the continuing proliferation and popularity of negotiating courses, which proclaim that one does not get what they deserve, but what they can negotiate.

The suggestion is obvious – when one negotiates there is a winner and a loser. To be a winner means that you must acquire the skills that enable you to get the better of someone else.

But is this really the way to win?

A Pyrrhic Victory

In a seminar, Kate Vitasek talked…

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Currency fluctuations crunch export earnings

Global soda ash market in for a positive 2015; zircon prices expected to remain flat in near term; currency depreciation hits phosphate and TiO2.



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Increase in Chinese exports weakens vanadium pentoxide prices in 2014

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Plunging fluorspar prices weigh heavily on South African miners

High stocks, low demand cause price drops; SA fluorspar sector in flux as investor interest wanes.



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Reconsidering My August Post on Ferguson and ‘Conflicting Accounts’

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FDA Approves Genetically Engineered Potatoes, Apples as Safe

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DataQuick: California Bay Area February Home Sales Decline

From DataQuick: Bay Area February Home Sales Decline; Smaller Gain for Median Sale Price

The number of homes sold was slightly lower than in January and was the lowest for the month of February in seven years. ... A total of 4,376 new and existing houses and condos sold in the nine-county Bay Area in February 2015. That was down 1.1 percent month over month from 4,423 sales in January 2015 and down 10.9 percent year over year from 4,911 sales in February 2014, according to CoreLogic DataQuick data.

...

“February is always a bit odd from a numbers standpoint. March should provide a better view of emerging trends this year,” said Andrew LePage, CoreLogic DataQuick data analyst. “That said, it is easy to see that supply is still constrained."

...

Foreclosure resales accounted for 4.5 percent of all resales in February, up from a revised 4.4 percent in January 2015 and down from 5.0 percent in February 2014. Foreclosure resales in the Bay Area peaked at 52.0 percent in February 2009, while the monthly average over the past 17 years is about 10 percent. Foreclosure resales are purchased homes that have been previously foreclosed upon in the prior 12 months.



Short sales accounted for an estimated 4.8 percent of Bay Area resales in February, down from a revised 5.2 percent in January 2015 and down from 6.3 percent in February 2014. Short sales are transactions in which the sale price fell short of what was owed on the property.

emphasis added

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Price Briefing 13 – 19 March

Antimony trioxide prices drop while European graphite skirts under Chinese FOB contracts.



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Lawler on Lennar: Orders Up Despite Weather; Margins Down a Bit on Diminished Pricing Power; and Confusion on Houston

From housing economist Tom Lawler:



Lennar Corporation, the nation’s second largest homebuilder, reported that net home orders in the quarter ended February 28, 2015 totaled 5,287, up 18.4% from the comparable quarter of 2014. The average net order price was $346,000, up 5.8% from a year ago. Home deliveries totaled 4,302, up 19.2% from the comparable quarter of 2015, at an average sales price of $326,000, up 2.5% from a year earlier. The company’s order backlog at the end of February was 6,817, up 20.4% from last February, at an average order price of $352,000, up 2.9% from a year ago.



In Lennar’s press release the company’s CEO was quoted as saying that “(d)espite severe weather conditions which contraction production and sales in parts of the country, the housing market continued its strong and steady recover. Early signals from this year’s spring selling season indicate that the housing market is improving, and disappointing single-family starts and permits numbers should rebound shortly.”



The company said that its homebuilding gross margin last quarter was down slightly from a year earlier but was consistent with the company’s guidance from earlier this year, with the decline coming from a combination of rising labor and material costs and a moderation in pricing power.



A few conference call questions focused on Houston, and company officials seemed moderately “upbeat” but created a bit of confusion. Noting a 7.1% YOY decline in net home orders in Houston in the latest quarter, one analyst asked about what was behind this decline, and how the Houston market was holding up. A company official responded that the Houston market was still seeing “good traffic,” but that some buyers were being a “bit more caution” about “pulling the trigger.” The official also noted that the company, in balancing “price versus pace,” was focused more on margin in Houston, and did not “chase prices down.” Near the end of the call another analyst, noting this statement, asked for some clarification, and a company official said that some “smaller and less-capitalized” builders, some selling in “outlying” areas, had cut prices in response to “headlines,” but that Lennar had not. Lennar’s average order price in Houston last quarter was unchanged from a year ago.



And some other data from Houston:



Flipping to “macro” numbers, single-family permits in the Houston MSA through January showed no signs of slowing. January SF permits were up 11% from the previous January, and permits over the three-month period ending in January were 14.4% from the comparable three-month period of a year earlier.



On the MLS front, the Houston Association of Realtors reported that single-family home sales by realtors in the Houston area totaled 4,521 in February, down 5.8% from last February’s pace. The HAR also reported that total property listings were up 0.7% from a year earlier, the first YOY increase in several years, and that listings in February were up 8.4% in December. While inventory levels remained at historically low levels relative to sales last month, the unusually high jump over the last two months is worth noting.



Right now it appears as if home sales are starting to soften in the Houston market, while based on building permits construction was still increasing through the beginning of this year. Given the likely negative impact of the plunge in oil prices on Houston’s economy (it won’t be as bad as in the 1980’s, but it will be negative), and it would appear that (1) there may be some “excess” building going on; and (2) that suggests coming downward pressure on home prices.



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While familiarity purportedly breeds contempt, it certainly doesn’t lead to procurement fraud

piblogger:

Editor’s Note: How do close working relationships with suppliers create opportunities for procurement fraud?

Originally posted on Relational Contracting Intelligence Blog:

I read with great interest Colin Cram’s recent post regarding both the prevalence and significant impact that fraud within the procurement process has beyond the original transaction itself.

While the Cram article focuses on how fraud and corruption are badly damaging the economies of many African countries, there is no doubt that its overall effect from a global perspective are also significant. In essence, and to varying degrees, no country is immune in terms of vulnerability to fraud – Canada included.

Before I get into the specifics regarding the origins of the fraud problem, and how to effectively deal with it, we have to address a long standing myth.

The Myth of Familiarity

Many organizations – especially those within the public sector – equate the familiarity of building a close working relationship with supply partners with somehow undermining the integrity of the procurement process. In short, and in a…

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Lawler: Early Read on Existing Home Sales in February

From housing economist Tom Lawler:



Based on local realtor/MLS reports from across the country, I project that existing home sales as measured by the National Association of Realtors ran at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.87 million in February, up 1.0% from January’s pace and up 4.5% from last February’s pace.



On the inventory front, local realtor/MLS reports suggest that the inventory of existing homes for sale at the end of February was little changed From January, which if true would mean that this inventory was down 1.6% from last February. Finally, local realtor/MLS suggest that the NAR’s median existing SF home sales price last month was up about 6.7% from a year earlier.



While not enough local realtors/MLS either report data on new pending sales or report accurate/consistent data on new pending sales for me to produce a “national” estimate, most or the realtors/MLS that do report such data showed significantly faster YOY growth in pending sales in February compared to January.



CR Note: The NAR is scheduled to release February existing home sales on Monday, March 23, 2015, at 10 AM ET.



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FOMC Statement: No "Patient", "Growth has moderated"

Dropped "patient", "economic growth has moderated", unlikely to hike rates in April.



FOMC Statement:

Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in January suggests that economic growth has moderated somewhat. Labor market conditions have improved further, with strong job gains and a lower unemployment rate. A range of labor market indicators suggests that underutilization of labor resources continues to diminish. Household spending is rising moderately; declines in energy prices have boosted household purchasing power. Business fixed investment is advancing, while the recovery in the housing sector remains slow and export growth has weakened. Inflation has declined further below the Committee's longer-run objective, largely reflecting declines in energy prices. Market-based measures of inflation compensation remain low; survey-based measures of longer-term inflation expectations have remained stable.



Consistent with its statutory mandate, the Committee seeks to foster maximum employment and price stability. The Committee expects that, with appropriate policy accommodation, economic activity will expand at a moderate pace, with labor market indicators continuing to move toward levels the Committee judges consistent with its dual mandate. The Committee continues to see the risks to the outlook for economic activity and the labor market as nearly balanced. Inflation is anticipated to remain near its recent low level in the near term, but the Committee expects inflation to rise gradually toward 2 percent over the medium term as the labor market improves further and the transitory effects of energy price declines and other factors dissipate. The Committee continues to monitor inflation developments closely.



To support continued progress toward maximum employment and price stability, the Committee today reaffirmed its view that the current 0 to 1/4 percent target range for the federal funds rate remains appropriate. In determining how long to maintain this target range, the Committee will assess progress--both realized and expected--toward its objectives of maximum employment and 2 percent inflation. This assessment will take into account a wide range of information, including measures of labor market conditions, indicators of inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and readings on financial and international developments. Consistent with its previous statement, the Committee judges that an increase in the target range for the federal funds rate remains unlikely at the April FOMC meeting. The Committee anticipates that it will be appropriate to raise the target range for the federal funds rate when it has seen further improvement in the labor market and is reasonably confident that inflation will move back to its 2 percent objective over the medium term. This change in the forward guidance does not indicate that the Committee has decided on the timing of the initial increase in the target range.



The Committee is maintaining its existing policy of reinvesting principal payments from its holdings of agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities in agency mortgage-backed securities and of rolling over maturing Treasury securities at auction. This policy, by keeping the Committee's holdings of longer-term securities at sizable levels, should help maintain accommodative financial conditions.



When the Committee decides to begin to remove policy accommodation, it will take a balanced approach consistent with its longer-run goals of maximum employment and inflation of 2 percent. The Committee currently anticipates that, even after employment and inflation are near mandate-consistent levels, economic conditions may, for some time, warrant keeping the target federal funds rate below levels the Committee views as normal in the longer run.



Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were: Janet L. Yellen, Chair; William C. Dudley, Vice Chairman; Lael Brainard; Charles L. Evans; Stanley Fischer; Jeffrey M. Lacker; Dennis P. Lockhart; Jerome H. Powell; Daniel K. Tarullo; and John C. Williams.

emphasis added

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What Having A Seat At The Table Really Means

piblogger:

Editor’s Note: In the procurement world seeking to have a “seat at the table” is equivalent to seeking the Holy Grail.

While it is clear as to what finding the latter would mean, is there the same clarity of purpose and outcome in terms of the former?

Executive coach and branding expert Roz Usheroff provides some much needed insight into what it really means to “have a seat at the table.”

Originally posted on The Remarkable Leader:

Most everyone is undoubtedly familiar with the term “having a seat at the table.”

Often reserved for those who are considered to have both the influence and power to make decisions and effect change, the table has become a symbol of power, negotiation and credibility through which one can forward their career, generate a sale or plot a course for enterprise success.

In other words, when one is provided with a seat at the table, it represents an opportunity to be heard and to make a difference.

But there is much more behind coming to the table than simply taking a seat.

In my upcoming eNewsletter, I will be providing practical tips in terms of strategizing your “table-time” outcome, as well as being mindful of where to sit and why. Call it boardroom etiquette, presentation technique or strategic positioning, I am sure that you will find the tips useful.

However…

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Rubies, Blood-Red Beauty

By VICTORIA GOMELSKY from NYT Style http://ift.tt/18Egs1f

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DataQuick: Southern California February Home Sales down 3% Year-over-year

From DataQuick: Southern California Home Sales Dip Year Over Year Again; Median Price Edges Higher

CoreLogic® ... today released its February 2015 Southern California housing market report, which shows the number of homes sold rose slightly from January but hit the lowest level for a February in seven years. ... A total of 13,650 new and existing houses and condos sold in Los Angeles, Riverside, San Diego, Ventura, San Bernardino and Orange counties in February 2015. That was up 0.7 percent month over month from 13,560 sales in January 2015, and down 2.7 percent year over year from 14,027 sales in February 2014, according to CoreLogic DataQuick data.



"This feels a lot like early 2014, with home sales off to a slow start as many would-be home buyers struggle with inventory constraints, credit hurdles and reduced affordability," said Andrew LePage, data analyst for CoreLogic DataQuick. "And just like a year ago, one of the big questions hanging over the market is whether we'll see a sizeable jump in inventory this spring and summer. A nearly three-year stretch of price appreciation has given many more owners enough equity to sell their homes and buy another. Recent job growth has helped fuel housing demand and if that’s met with only a modest rise in the supply of homes for sale it will put upward pressure on prices. Of course, the direction of mortgage rates, among other factors, will also play a role in determining how the housing market shapes up this year."

...

Foreclosure resales represented 6.0 percent of the resale market in February. That was up from a revised 5.7 percent in January 2015 and down from 6.7 percent in February 2014. In recent months the foreclosure resale rate has been the lowest since early 2007. In the current cycle, foreclosure resales hit a high of 56.7 percent in February 2009. Foreclosure resales are purchased homes that have been previously foreclosed upon in the prior 12 months.



Short sales made up an estimated 6.1 percent of resales in February, down from a revised 6.6 in January 2015 and down from 9.0 percent in February 2014. Short sales are transactions in which the sale price fell short of what was owed on the property.

emphasis added

A couple of key points: 1) the percent of distress sales usually increases in the winter months, because traditional sales fall off sharply - so it is important to look at the year-over-year change in distressed sales (down to 12.1% from 15.7% a year ago), and 2) we might see more upward price pressure unless inventory increases.



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Antimony trioxide prices dip below $7,000/tonne

Relentless supply pulls chemical prices down further; ingot remains stable



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Tuesday: Housing Starts

From Reuters: U.S. fuel consumption is soaring amid cheaper prices (ht Shane)

Fuel demand in Texas is growing strongly as lower oil prices encourage motorists to use their vehicles more and buy larger replacements.



Receipts of motor fuel taxes in February 2015 were 6 percent higher than in the same month in 2014, according to the Texas Comptroller of Public Accounts.

Tuesday:

• 8:30 AM ET, Housing Starts for February. Total housing starts were at 1.065 million (SAAR) in January. Single family starts were at 678 thousand SAAR in January. The consensus is for total housing starts to decrease to 1.040 million (SAAR) in February.



• At 10:00 AM, Regional and State Employment and Unemployment (Monthly) for January



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Prayon pushes up phosphate prices on sagging euro

Belgian producer which is partly owned by OCP said the €100 increase will affect all products from 1 April.



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U.S. Businesses Avoiding Lumber Liquidators Amid Safety Allegations

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Year 4: It Never Rains in California

Another heat wave in California this weekend (the high was 90 where I live). This is the fourth year in a row with little rain or snow in the mountains (the statewide snowpack is about 17% of normal for this date). California is the largest agricultural state, and an ongoing drought could have an impact on food prices - and on the economy.



An Op-Ed in the LA Times: California has about one year of water left. Will you ration now?

January was the driest in California since record-keeping began in 1895. Groundwater and snowpack levels are at all-time lows. We're not just up a creek without a paddle in California, we're losing the creek too.



Data from NASA satellites show that the total amount of water stored in the Sacramento and San Joaquin river basins — that is, all of the snow, river and reservoir water, water in soils and groundwater combined — was 34 million acre-feet below normal in 2014. That loss is nearly 1.5 times the capacity of Lake Mead, America's largest reservoir.



Statewide, we've been dropping more than 12 million acre-feet of total water yearly since 2011. Roughly two-thirds of these losses are attributable to groundwater pumping for agricultural irrigation in the Central Valley. ... Wells are running dry. In some areas of the Central Valley, the land is sinking by one foot or more per year.



As difficult as it may be to face, the simple fact is that California is running out of water.

Maybe it is time to revisit the Alaska-California Undersea Aqueduct proposal.



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Energy expenditures as a percentage of consumer spending

Here is a graph of expenditures on energy goods and services as a percent of total personal consumption expenditures through January 2015.



This is one of the measures that Professor Hamilton at Econbrowser looks at to evaluate any drag on GDP from energy prices.





Click on graph for larger image.



Data source: BEA Table 2.3.5U.



The huge spikes in energy prices during the oil crisis of 1973 and 1979 are obvious. As is the increase in energy prices during the 2001 through 2008 period.



With some further declines - WTI oil futures fell 4% today to $45.09 per barrel - we might see energy expenditures as a percent of PCE at new lows and resume the long term down trend.



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Weak Euro to Help European Companies, Force U.S. Rivals to Adapt

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Preliminary March Consumer Sentiment decreases to 91.2

Click on graph for larger image.



The preliminary University of Michigan consumer sentiment index for March was at 91.2, down from 95.4 in February.



This was below the consensus forecast of 95.5. Higher gasoline prices are probably the reason for the decline in March.



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Price Briefing 6 – 12 March

Graphite flat while craft beer pushes up soda ash and TiO2 markets anticipate a price lift.



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US craft beer cheers North American soda ash prices

Rise in popularity of bottled craft brews over canned competitors to boost market.



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Friday: PPI, Consumer Sentiment

On mortgage rates from Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily: Mortgage Rates Steady Near March Lows

Mortgage rates were mixed today depending on the lender, but moved just slightly lower on average. This wasn't the case this morning as essentially all lenders came out with noticeably lower rates following the weaker-than-expected Retail Sales report. As the day progressed, early gains in bond markets faded, especially after the afternoon's 30yr Bond auction. While that refers to 30yr Treasuries, the goings-on in the Treasury market always have some effect on the mortgage-backed-securities that dictate mortgage rates. Today was no exception, and as prices fell into the afternoon, most lenders 'repriced' to higher rates. ...



That puts us very close to the lowest levels in March, seen on the first two days of the month. Most lenders are quoting conventional 30yr fixed rates of 3.875% to top tier borrowers. A few of the stronger lenders are at 3.75% and fewer still remain at 4.0%.

CR Note: The Ten Year yield decreased slightly to 2.10% today from 2.11% on Wednesday.



Friday:

• 8:30 AM ET, the Producer Price Index for February from the BLS. The consensus is for a 0.3% increase in prices, and a 0.1% increase in core PPI.



• At 10:00 AM, the University of Michigan's Consumer sentiment index (preliminary for March). The consensus is for a reading of 95.5, up from 95.4 in February.



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