Rare earths prices flat into new year as China maintains export tariffs

Government retains 2014 tax regime but is yet to issue statement on quotas



from MPW - Pricing News http://ift.tt/1y6oaMz

via IFTTT

Tough times for many in 2015

Energy minerals still waiting for battery lift off; chromite market bearish over next 12 months



from MPW - Pricing News http://www.indmin.com/Article/3413875/Tough-times-for-many-in-2015.html

via IFTTT

Exclusive: Mexico's Light Crude, Shunned for U.S. Shale, Sails East

By REUTERS from NYT Business Day http://www.nytimes.com/reuters/2014/12/31/business/31reuters-mexico-crude-usa.html

This content was assembled for you by the YQ Matrix platform



The views expressed in this post and throughout the series are the autor's own and not intended to reflect the views the YQ Matrix platform, its users or any associated organisations.



For the procurement people among you, have a look at the latest YQ Matrix raw material and semi-finished prices. For: Prices on other websites.

Start-Ups Rise to Close a Gap for Farmers

By STEPHANIE STROM from NYT Business Day http://www.nytimes.com/2014/12/31/business/start-ups-rise-to-close-a-gap-for-farmers.html

This content was assembled for you by the YQ Matrix platform



The views expressed in this post and throughout the series are the autor's own and not intended to reflect the views the YQ Matrix platform, its users or any associated organisations.



For the procurement people among you, have a look at the latest YQ Matrix raw material and semi-finished prices. For: Prices on other websites.

Special Report-How Ameriprise Shaped Deals So It Could Sell More Securities

By REUTERS from NYT Business Day http://www.nytimes.com/reuters/2014/12/30/business/30reuters-usa-privateplacements-ameriprise-special-report.html

This content was assembled for you by the YQ Matrix platform



The views expressed in this post and throughout the series are the autor's own and not intended to reflect the views the YQ Matrix platform, its users or any associated organisations.



For the procurement people among you, have a look at the latest YQ Matrix raw material and semi-finished prices. For: Prices on other websites.

AnonyWatch: Department of Ridiculous Reasons

By MARGARET SULLIVAN from NYT Opinion http://publiceditor.blogs.nytimes.com/2014/12/29/anonywatch-department-of-ridiculous-reasons/

This content was assembled for you by the YQ Matrix platform



The views expressed in this post and throughout the series are the autor's own and not intended to reflect the views the YQ Matrix platform, its users or any associated organisations.



For the procurement people among you, have a look at the latest YQ Matrix raw material and semi-finished prices. For: Prices on other websites.

Black Knight: House Price Index up slightly in October, Up 4.5% year-over-year

Note: I follow several house price indexes (Case-Shiller, CoreLogic, Black Knight, Zillow, FHFA, FNC and more). The timing of different house prices indexes; Black Knight uses the current month closings only (not a three month average like Case-Shiller or a weighted average like CoreLogic), excludes short sales and REOs, and is not seasonally adjusted.



From Black Knight: U.S. Home Prices Up 0.1 for the Month; Up 4.5 Percent Year-Over-Year

Today, the Data and Analytics division of Black Knight Financial Services​ released its latest Home Price Index (HPI) report, based on October 2014 residential real estate transactions. The Black Knight HPI combines the Company’s extensive property and loan-level databases to produce a repeat sales analysis of home prices as of their transaction dates every month for each of more than 18,500 U.S. ZIP codes. The Black Knight HPI represents the price of non-distressed sales by taking into account price discounts for REO and short sales.

The Black Knight HPI increased 0.1% percent in October, and is off 10.2% from the peak in June 2006 (not adjusted for inflation).



The year-over-year increases have been getting steadily smaller for the last year - as shown in the table below:

Month	YoY House Price Increase
Jan-13	6.7%
Feb-13	7.3%
Mar-13	7.6%
Apr-13	8.1%
May-13	7.9%
Jun-13	8.4%
Jul-13	8.7%
Aug-13	9.0%
Sep-13	9.0%
Oct-13	8.8%
Nov-13	8.5%
Dec-13	8.4%
Jan-14	8.0%
Feb-14	7.6%
Mar-14	7.0%
Apr-14	6.4%
May-14	5.9%
June-14	5.5%
July-14	5.1%
Aug-14	4.9%
Sep-14	4.6%
Oct-14	4.5%

The press release has data for the 20 largest states, and 40 MSAs.



Black Knight shows prices off 41.0% from the peak in Las Vegas, off 34.0% in Orlando, and 31.7% off from the peak in Riverside-San Bernardino, CA (Inland Empire). Prices are at new highs in Colorado and Texas (Denver, Austin, Dallas, Houston and San Antonio metros). Prices are also at new highs in Honolulu, HI, and Nashville, TN.



Note: Case-Shiller for October will be released tomorrow.



from Calculated Risk http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2014/12/black-knight-house-price-index-up.html

via YQ Matrix

Tuesday: New Home Sales, Personal Income and Outlays, GDP, and much more

First, from Tim Duy: Fed Watch: Looking Backward to See the Future

[In 20004] Patient" lasted for two meetings before being replaced by "measured." This is fairly consistent with my expectations. My baseline scenario is that the Fed drops "considerable" entirely in January, retains "patient" in March, drops "patient" in April, and raise rates in June.

...

Bottom Line: Assuming the data holds, maybe history will repeat itself.

Tuesday:

• At 8:30 AM ET, Durable Goods Orders for November from the Census Bureau. The consensus is for a 2.9% increase in durable goods orders.



• Also at 8:30 AM, Personal Income and Outlays for November. The consensus is for a 0.5% increase in personal income, and for a 0.5% increase in personal spending. And for the Core PCE price index to increase 0.1%.



• Also at 8:30 AM, Gross Domestic Product, 3rd quarter 2014 (third estimate). The consensus is that real GDP increased 4.3% annualized in Q3, revised up from the second estimate of 3.9%.



• At 9:00 AM, FHFA House Price Index for October 2014. This was originally a GSE only repeat sales, however there is also an expanded index. The consensus is for a 0.2% increase.



• At 9:55 AM, Reuter's/University of Michigan's Consumer sentiment index (final for December). The consensus is for a reading of 93.0, down from the preliminary reading of 93.8, and up from the November reading of 88.8.



• At 10:00 AM, New Home Sales for November from the Census Bureau. The consensus is for an increase in sales to 460 thousand Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate (SAAR) in November from 458 thousand in October.



• Also at 10:00 AM, Richmond Fed Survey of Manufacturing Activity for December.



from Calculated Risk http://ift.tt/1HskC73

via YQ Matrix

Attacks on Union Leaders at Azim Factories in Bangladesh Are Documented

By STEVEN GREENHOUSE from NYT Business Day http://ift.tt/1AAJDfU

This content was assembled for you by the YQ Matrix platform



The views expressed in this post and throughout the series are the autor's own and not intended to reflect the views the YQ Matrix platform, its users or any associated organisations.



For the procurement people among you, have a look at the latest YQ Matrix raw material and semi-finished prices. For: Prices on other websites.

Exclusive-GM Develops Contingency Plans in Case Takata Recalls Widen

By REUTERS from NYT Business Day http://ift.tt/1GzKQ90

This content was assembled for you by the YQ Matrix platform



The views expressed in this post and throughout the series are the autor's own and not intended to reflect the views the YQ Matrix platform, its users or any associated organisations.



For the procurement people among you, have a look at the latest YQ Matrix raw material and semi-finished prices. For: Prices on other websites.

Exclusive: GM Develops Contingency Plans in Case Takata Recalls Widen

By REUTERS from NYT Business Day http://ift.tt/1sH6nV3

This content was assembled for you by the YQ Matrix platform



The views expressed in this post and throughout the series are the autor's own and not intended to reflect the views the YQ Matrix platform, its users or any associated organisations.



For the procurement people among you, have a look at the latest YQ Matrix raw material and semi-finished prices. For: Prices on other websites.

Kansas City Fed: Regional Manufacturing "Activity Expanded at a Moderate Pace" in December

From the Kansas City Fed: Tenth District Manufacturing Activity Expanded at a Moderate Pace

The Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City released the December Manufacturing Survey today. According to Chad Wilkerson, vice president and economist at the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, the survey revealed that Tenth District manufacturing activity continued to expand at a moderate pace in December, and producers’ expectations for future activity remained at solid levels.



“This month’s results are similar to what we’ve seen most of the year, said Wilkerson. The main change in December, which we started to see in November, is that input price pressures have come down.”



The month-over-month composite index was 8 in December, up slightly from 7 in November and 4 in October. The composite index is an average of the production, new orders, employment, supplier delivery time, and raw materials inventory indexes. ... The employment index jumped from 10 to 18, its highest level in nearly two years. ...



Future factory indexes were mostly stable at solid levels. The future composite index was unchanged at 22, while the future shipments, new orders, and employment indexes increased further. The future capital spending index jumped from 15 to 23, its highest level in five months. In contrast, the future production index eased from 34 to 30, and the future order backlog index also inched lower.

emphasis added

Two more regional Fed manufacturing surveys for December will be released this month (the Dallas and Richmond Fed surveys). So far the regional surveys have indicated decent growth in December and optimism about the future.



from Calculated Risk http://ift.tt/1CcqLDe

via YQ Matrix

Rare earths prices flat as industry awaits Chinese policy announcements

Higher export levels in 2014 keep market firm despite lull in buying activity



from MPW - Pricing News http://ift.tt/1CbhuLH

via IFTTT

How To Make Your Outsourcing Team Work For You – Part II

All procurement outsourcing deals have two viable sources of return – cutting costs on transaction processing which is achieved soon after implementing the project, and savings through strategic sourcing and category management achieved during the course of the outsourcing contract.

In this guest post, the second in a series, Procurement Leaders invites GEP’s Santosh Reddy to look at factors to consider when outsourcing procurement activities - particularly around understanding return on investment. You can download a whitepaper on the subject here.



In the previous post in this series, we presented why and how a company can evaluate if procurement outsourcing will help them. In this part, let’s look at some ideas on how to measure and generate return on investment (ROI) on a procurement outsourcing deal. While calculating ROI seems like simple math, quantifying the returns generated by an outsourcing deal is difficult.

All procurement outsourcing deals have two viable sources of return – cutting costs on transaction processing which is achieved soon after implementing the project, and savings through strategic sourcing and category management achieved during the course of the outsourcing contract.

To measure the short term return, start by defining all activities that will be outsourced and measuring the time and effort being expended by the current team performing those activities. The result should be a monetized value of time spent on transactional/ tactical activities being outsourced.



While lay-offs were a prominent result of outsourcing deals and meant to generate savings immediately, they are not the case or norm in procurement outsourcing deals. By redeploying current staff, companies are able to take up and complete more initiatives thanks to the additional time available with resources experienced with the job and knowledgeable of company’s culture and people. These long-term savings can be measured as the delta increase in savings from initiatives that this redeployed team achieves.

With a calculation mechanism in place, next step is to ensure the sources start yielding results. This can be achieved using a combination of steps.

Measure the right things, and frequently

Reports are an absolute need for any outsourcing program. They help measure the program’s health, and helps program managers identify risks and negative trends early on. However, not working with the right set of reports could do more harm than good.

The first report all program managers should use is the OTIF – On Time In Full – service report. By definition, it measures percentage activities completed within agreed time and meeting specified service expectations. The tricky part here is to define what ‘On Time’ means, particularly where the support requires constant interaction and waiting for updates between the support team, client and suppliers. The best laid programs typically account for this time and try to measure the client and supplier teams too.

For a transaction outsourcing program, the team’s utilization and efficiency can be measured purely on number of transactions processed. It is made possible because of transactions being fairly standard, define time per transaction and rest is pure math.

However, utilization is not a good measure by itself when measuring anything apart from a transaction support process. For programs that support category management, contract management or sourcing support, not every contract renewal or strategic sourcing initiative is similar to another one. The same project being re-executed might require a different amount of time and effort. So, additional reports should be used. Savings generated by sourcing support or contract management programs, and spend under procurement’s management in a category management program are good indicators of a program’s health.

Know the support team

Outsourcing teams can be a black box at times, with a small helpdesk team doing all the interaction with the client teams. While a helpdesk team is needed for a variety of reasons, one to one relationship between smaller teams within the service provider’s team aligned with client teams will be beneficial. This helps with fostering a healthy working relationship. Risks identified can be addressed quickly and impact is localized.

Utilization is to a good extent directly proportional to the strength of the pairing. This has multiple benefits to both parties involved. For clients, they are working with the same set of 2-3 members, so they never get that black box feeling even if they still have to go through a helpdesk for new projects. Because they have worked together in the past, support team does not have any learning curve about the client’s work style and requirements. From the service provider’s perspective, it will let their team specialize in a certain aspect rather than be a jack of all activities, and help them on their career progression and improved retention.

In summary, an evergreen change management and communication program, frequent and proper reporting and good pairing of teams can bring about early adoption and ROI realization. Program managers from both the client and service provider should focus on measuring and communicating the effectiveness of the outsourcing program.

Santosh Reddy is senior manager, Consulting, at GEP.

You can download a whitepaper ’Procurement Outsourcing: A Field Guide’ produced by Procurement Leaders in association with GEP, here.

from Procurement Leaders Blog http://ift.tt/1ALjvwA

This content was assembled for you by the YQ Matrix platform



The views expressed in this post and throughout the series are the autor's own and not intended to reflect the views the YQ Matrix platform, its users or any associated organisations.



For the procurement people among you, have a look at the latest YQ Matrix raw material and semi-finished prices. For: Prices on other websites.

Price Briefing 12 – 18 December

Antimony tumbles again while iodine price rumours generate scepticism



from MPW - Pricing News http://ift.tt/1ALgL2j

via IFTTT

Iodine price decline rumblings not reflected by wider market

Sources say falling production and flat demand do not support sub-$30/kg prices



from MPW - Pricing News http://ift.tt/1wmvtOo

via IFTTT

ICL increases price of phosphorous-based flame retardants

Price rises to yield more cash for reinvestment as Israeli mineral company restructures



from MPW - Pricing News http://ift.tt/1AtQtSz

via IFTTT

For That Door-to-Treadmill Service

By COURTNEY RUBIN from NYT Style http://ift.tt/1wGCN79

This content was assembled for you by the YQ Matrix platform



The views expressed in this post and throughout the series are the autor's own and not intended to reflect the views the YQ Matrix platform, its users or any associated organisations.



For the procurement people among you, have a look at the latest YQ Matrix raw material and semi-finished prices. For: Prices on other websites.

FOMC Statement: "Considerable Time" replaced with "patient", "consistent with previous statement"

FOMC Statement:

Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in October suggests that economic activity is expanding at a moderate pace. Labor market conditions improved further, with solid job gains and a lower unemployment rate. On balance, a range of labor market indicators suggests that underutilization of labor resources continues to diminish. Household spending is rising moderately and business fixed investment is advancing, while the recovery in the housing sector remains slow. Inflation has continued to run below the Committee's longer-run objective, partly reflecting declines in energy prices. Market-based measures of inflation compensation have declined somewhat further; survey-based measures of longer-term inflation expectations have remained stable.



Consistent with its statutory mandate, the Committee seeks to foster maximum employment and price stability. The Committee expects that, with appropriate policy accommodation, economic activity will expand at a moderate pace, with labor market indicators moving toward levels the Committee judges consistent with its dual mandate. The Committee sees the risks to the outlook for economic activity and the labor market as nearly balanced. The Committee expects inflation to rise gradually toward 2 percent as the labor market improves further and the transitory effects of lower energy prices and other factors dissipate. The Committee continues to monitor inflation developments closely.



To support continued progress toward maximum employment and price stability, the Committee today reaffirmed its view that the current 0 to 1/4 percent target range for the federal funds rate remains appropriate. In determining how long to maintain this target range, the Committee will assess progress--both realized and expected--toward its objectives of maximum employment and 2 percent inflation. This assessment will take into account a wide range of information, including measures of labor market conditions, indicators of inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and readings on financial developments. Based on its current assessment, the Committee judges that it can be patient in beginning to normalize the stance of monetary policy. The Committee sees this guidance as consistent with its previous statement that it likely will be appropriate to maintain the 0 to 1/4 percent target range for the federal funds rate for a considerable time following the end of its asset purchase program in October, especially if projected inflation continues to run below the Committee's 2 percent longer-run goal, and provided that longer-term inflation expectations remain well anchored. However, if incoming information indicates faster progress toward the Committee's employment and inflation objectives than the Committee now expects, then increases in the target range for the federal funds rate are likely to occur sooner than currently anticipated. Conversely, if progress proves slower than expected, then increases in the target range are likely to occur later than currently anticipated.



The Committee is maintaining its existing policy of reinvesting principal payments from its holdings of agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities in agency mortgage-backed securities and of rolling over maturing Treasury securities at auction. This policy, by keeping the Committee's holdings of longer-term securities at sizable levels, should help maintain accommodative financial conditions.



When the Committee decides to begin to remove policy accommodation, it will take a balanced approach consistent with its longer-run goals of maximum employment and inflation of 2 percent. The Committee currently anticipates that, even after employment and inflation are near mandate-consistent levels, economic conditions may, for some time, warrant keeping the target federal funds rate below levels the Committee views as normal in the longer run.



Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were: Janet L. Yellen, Chair; William C. Dudley, Vice Chairman; Lael Brainard; Stanley Fischer; Loretta J. Mester; Jerome H. Powell; and Daniel K. Tarullo.



Voting against the action were Richard W. Fisher, who believed that, while the Committee should be patient in beginning to normalize monetary policy, improvement in the U.S. economic performance since October has moved forward, further than the majority of the Committee envisions, the date when it will likely be appropriate to increase the federal funds rate; Narayana Kocherlakota, who believed that the Committee's decision, in the context of ongoing low inflation and falling market-based measures of longer-term inflation expectations, created undue downside risk to the credibility of the 2 percent inflation target; and Charles I. Plosser, who believed that the statement should not stress the importance of the passage of time as a key element of its forward guidance and, given the improvement in economic conditions, should not emphasize the consistency of the current forward guidance with previous statements.

emphasis added

from Calculated Risk http://ift.tt/1whOm4W

via YQ Matrix

BLS: CPI decreased 0.3% in November, Core CPI increased 0.1%

From the BLS:

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) declined 0.3 percent in November on a seasonally adjusted basis, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 1.3 percent before seasonal adjustment.

...

The gasoline index posted its sharpest decline since December 2008 and was the main cause of the decrease in the seasonally adjusted all items index. The indexes for fuel oil and natural gas also declined, and the energy index fell 3.8 percent. ...



The index for all items less food and energy increased 0.1 percent in November. ...



The all items index increased 1.3 percent over the last 12 months, a notable decline from the 1.7 percent figure from the 12 months ending October. The index for all items less food and energy has increased 1.7 percent over the last 12 months, compared to 1.8 percent for the 12 months ending October.

emphasis added

I'll post a graph later today after the Cleveland Fed releases the median and trimmed-mean CPI. This was below the consensus forecast of a 0.1% decrease for CPI, and at the forecast of a 0.1% increase in core CPI.



Energy prices have also declined significantly in December, and CPI will fall further - but the key is to focus on the core measures.



from Calculated Risk http://ift.tt/1J2iA13

via YQ Matrix

Factbox: ADM's and Olam's Cocoa Businesses

By REUTERS from NYT Business Day http://ift.tt/1A2xUXa

This content was assembled for you by the YQ Matrix platform



The views expressed in this post and throughout the series are the autor's own and not intended to reflect the views the YQ Matrix platform, its users or any associated organisations.



For the procurement people among you, have a look at the latest YQ Matrix raw material and semi-finished prices. For: Prices on other websites.

House Price Index - October 2014

A monthly House Price Index (HPI) based on mortgage completions data from the Regulated Mortgage Survey (RMS).



from Taxonomy RSS http://ift.tt/1A2qm6N

via YQ Matrix

House Price Index, October 2014: Annual Tables 20 to 39

UK housing market analysis including house price inflation and distribution of mortgage advances. This House Price Index reference table contains 20 tables relating to the ONS House Price Index.



from Taxonomy RSS http://ift.tt/1A2qlQh

via YQ Matrix

House Price Index, October 2014

Mix-adjusted average house prices and house price indices for the UK and its component countries and regions.



from Taxonomy RSS http://ift.tt/1A2qnYz

via YQ Matrix

Tuesday: Housing Starts

Two related articles ...



From the NY Times: Russia’s Central Bank Abruptly Raises Key Rate to 17%

With Russia scrambling to contain a currency crisis, the country’s central bank, in a surprise middle-of-the-night move, increased its key interest rate to 17 percent, from 10.5 percent.

...

The rate increase came after the ruble plummeted yet again on Monday, by more than 10 percent, to around 64 per dollar. The ruble has lost nearly half its value this year.

From the WSJ: Oil Prices Fall to Fresh Lows

Oil for January delivery fell $1.90, or 3.3%, to close at $55.91 a barrel, the lowest level since May 2009 on the New York Mercantile Exchange.



Brent crude, the global benchmark, slid 1.3% to $61.06 a barrel, the lowest level since July 2009, on ICE Futures Europe.

There is more to the ruble collapse than declining oil prices, but it is a huge factor.



Tuesday:

• At 8:30 AM ET, Housing Starts for November. Total housing starts were at 1.009 million (SAAR) in October. Single family starts were at 696 thousand SAAR in October. The consensus is for total housing starts to increase to 1.038 million (SAAR) in November.



from Calculated Risk http://ift.tt/1IVuwl9

via YQ Matrix

Shaping a Shepherd of Catholics, From Argentine Slums to the Vatican

By JAMES MARTIN from NYT Books http://ift.tt/1AeCEqW

This content was assembled for you by the YQ Matrix platform



The views expressed in this post and throughout the series are the autor's own and not intended to reflect the views the YQ Matrix platform, its users or any associated organisations.



For the procurement people among you, have a look at the latest YQ Matrix raw material and semi-finished prices. For: Prices on other websites.

Lawler: Early Read on Existing Home Sales in November (look for big dip)

From housing economist Tom Lawler



Based on local realtor/MLS reports from across the country, I estimate that US existing home sales as measured by the National Association of Realtors ran at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of about 4.93 million in November, down 6.3% from October’s preliminary pace but up 2.1% from last November’s pace. On the inventory front, the vast majority of local reports showed a larger monthly decline in listings this November compared to last November, and I estimate that the inventory of existing homes for sale as measured by the NAR for the end of November will be 2.12 million, down 4.5% from October and up 3.4% from a year ago.



Finally, a median existing SF home sales price for November that was up about 4.7% from last November would be consistent with local realtor/MLS reports. On this latter point, I should note that the YOY increases shown in the NAR’s median sales prices for the last several months have been higher than local realtor/MLS reports would have suggested.



CR Note: Existing home sales will be released next week on Monday, December 22nd.



from Calculated Risk http://ift.tt/1IUMXX7

via YQ Matrix

Trioxide grade antimony prices tumble as standard grade drops

Fanya Exchange removes buying support for market and creates uncertainty



from MPW - Pricing News http://ift.tt/1uJesrX

via IFTTT

Carpetright Upbeat on Profit Forecasts as Trading Improves

By REUTERS from NYT Business Day http://ift.tt/1wv2Az3

This content was assembled for you by the YQ Matrix platform



The views expressed in this post and throughout the series are the autor's own and not intended to reflect the views the YQ Matrix platform, its users or any associated organisations.



For the procurement people among you, have a look at the latest YQ Matrix raw material and semi-finished prices. For: Prices on other websites.

Goldman: FOMC Preview

Some excerpts from a research note by economists Sven Jari Stehn and David Mericle at Goldman Sachs:

The economic dataflow has been solid since the October FOMC meeting. ... News on inflation, however, has been mixed. On the one hand, actual inflation measures have firmed a bit since October. But, on the other hand, oil prices have continued to decline and market-implied measures of inflation expectations have dropped further.



We expect modest upgrades to Fed officials’ projections and to the description of growth and the labor market in the FOMC statement, while the inflation forecasts are likely to come down a bit. These expectations for the economic projections would suggest that the “dots” remain broadly unchanged.



We expect the FOMC to modify its “considerable time” forward guidance. One possibility would be to state that the committee will be “patient” in raising the funds rate until it is clear that the economy is on the path to achieving the FOMC’s goals. ... Our forecast for updated guidance is a close call, however, as the committee would want to avoid a tightening of financial conditions in light of the mixed inflation news. We would therefore expect the committee to indicate that the change in guidance is not meant to convey an expectation of an earlier liftoff than previously communicated, either in the statement itself or in Chair Yellen’s press conference.



An area of particular interest for the press conference will be any discussion of the post-liftoff guidance, as recent Fed communication has raised the prospect that views might be starting to shift away from the “shallow glide path.” Our forecast remains for the first hike in September 2015, followed by a steeper path of the funds rate than current market pricing.

The meeting is next Tuesday and Wednesday.



from Calculated Risk http://ift.tt/1uyvFW9

via YQ Matrix

Preliminary December Consumer Sentiment increases to 93.8

Click on graph for larger image.



The preliminary Reuters / University of Michigan consumer sentiment index for December was at 93.8, up from 88.8 in November.



This was above the consensus forecast of 89.5 and is at the highest level since before the recession. Lower gasoline prices and a stronger economy are probably the reasons for the sharp increase.



from Calculated Risk http://ift.tt/1z0vf03

via YQ Matrix

Price Briefing 5 – 11 December

Barite prices could leap 30% in 2015; chromite braces for another difficult year while graphite flattens



from MPW - Pricing News http://ift.tt/12yesVj

via IFTTT

Thursday: Retail Sales, Unemployment Claims, Q3 Flow of Funds

Big stories today: Falling oil prices, possible budget deal, and Q3 GDP likely to be revised up.



On oil prices, from the WSJ: Oil Prices Tumble Amid Global Supply Glut

The benchmark U.S. oil price slid 4.5% to $60.94 a barrel, the lowest level since July 2009 on the New York Mercantile Exchange. It was the biggest one-day drop since Nov. 28, the session that followed OPEC’s decision to maintain its oil-output target.



Brent crude, a gauge of global prices, fell 3.9%, or $2.60, to $64.24 a barrel, also the lowest since July 2009 on ICE Futures Europe.

On the budget, from Peter Orzag at Bloomberg: Don't Get Too Excited About the Budget Deal

Thanks to the spending bill that House and Senate leaders have negotiated, the federal government will avoid a shutdown. And that's great. Unfortunately, though, that’s the highest praise that can be attached to the deal.

It seems likely there won't be a shutdown. But that is a concern for 2015.



Thursday:

• At 8:30 AM ET, the initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for claims to decrease to 296 thousand from 297 thousand.



• Also at 8:30 AM, Retail sales for November will be released. The consensus is for retail sales to increase 0.4% in November, and to increase 0.1% ex-autos.



• At 10:00 AM, Manufacturing and Trade: Inventories and Sales (business inventories) report for September. The consensus is for a 0.3% increase in inventories.



• At 12:00 PM, Q3 Flow of Funds Accounts of the United States from the Federal Reserve.



from Calculated Risk http://ift.tt/1yRQFfG

via YQ Matrix

Quarterly Services Survey suggests upward revision to Q3 GDP close to 4.4%

From Reuters: U.S. services data point to upward revision to third-quarter GDP

Economists said the data suggested third-quarter consumer spending could be raised by at least two-tenths of a percentage point from a 2.2 percent annual rate when the government publishes its third estimate later this month.



That combined with data on wholesale inventories and construction spending could see third-quarter GDP revised up to a 4.4 percent annual pace from the 3.9 percent rate reported last month.

From the WSJ: U.S. Economic Growth Could Get Boost From Services Spending

J.P. Morgan Chase said Wednesday it expected the QSS will lead to stronger estimates for spending, raising the GDP growth rate to 4.4% from an earlier prediction of 4.3%. Barclays raised its GDP prediction for the third quarter to 4.2% from 4.1%.

Here is the Q3 Quarterly Services Press Release

The U.S. Census Bureau announced today that the estimate of U.S. information sector revenue for the third calendar quarter of 2014, adjusted for seasonal variation but not for price changes, was $336.5 billion, an increase of 1.0 percent (± 0.8%) from the second quarter of 2014 and up 5.0 percent (± 0.8%) from the third quarter of 2013.

from Calculated Risk http://ift.tt/1zPF13g

via YQ Matrix

Trulia: Asking House Prices up 7.4% year-over-year in November

From Trulia chief economist Jed Kolko: Housing’s Millennial Mismatch

Nationwide, asking prices on for-sale homes jumped 1.5% month-over-month in November, seasonally adjusted — a surprisingly large increase. Future months will tell whether this was a blip or the beginning of a sustained climb. Year-over-year, asking prices rose 7.4%, down from the 10.3% year-over-year increase in November 2013. Asking prices rose year-over-year in 98 of the 100 largest U.S. metros — everywhere but Little Rock and New Haven.



Four of the 10 metros where asking prices rose most year-over-year were in Florida. These Sunshine State markets have older populations, and they all have a lower share of millennials than the national average of 21% and a higher share of baby boomers than the average of 24%. In fact, only one of the 10 markets with the largest price increases in November has a higher share of millennials than the national average—and only slightly (Las Vegas, at 22%).



Rents continued to climb. Nationwide, rents rose 6.1% year-over-year in November. Still, rent gains have cooled since August in 14 of the 25 largest rental markets, including the Northern California markets of San Francisco, Oakland, and Sacramento.

emphasis added

Note: These asking prices are SA (Seasonally Adjusted) - and adjusted for the mix of homes - and although year-over-year price increases had been slowing, the year-over-year change increased in November.



The month-to-month increase suggests further house price increases over the next few months on a seasonally adjusted basis.



There is much more in the article.



from Calculated Risk http://ift.tt/1GfqOhS

via YQ Matrix

GRAPHITE '14: Graphite prices expected to remain broadly stable in 2015

Space in supply chain for additional 30,000 tpa; new suppliers urged to seek sales at less than market price.



from MPW - Pricing News http://ift.tt/1wvsbtK

via IFTTT

Imerys Ceramics North America ratchets up kaolin and ball clay prices by 15%

Company restates warning of impact volatile freight rates will have on costs.



from MPW - Pricing News http://ift.tt/1vz9qyw

via IFTTT

Tuesday: Job Openings, Small Business Optimism

From Jon Hilsenrath at the WSJ: Fed Aims to Signal Shift on Low Rates

Federal Reserve officials are seriously considering an important shift in tone at their policy meeting next week: dropping an assurance that short-term interest rates will stay near zero for a “considerable time” as they look more confidently toward rate increases around the middle of next year.



Senior officials have hinted lately that they’re looking at dropping this closely watched interest-rate signal, which many market participants take as a sign rates won’t go up for at least six months.

The FOMC statement (and press conference) will be released next week, Wednesday, December 17th.



Tuesday:

• At 7:30 AM ET, NFIB Small Business Optimism Index for November.



• At 10:00 AM, Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey for October from the BLS. Jobs openings decreased in September to 4.735 million from 4.853 million in August. The number of job openings (yellow) were up 20% year-over-year compared to September 2013, and Quits were up 16% year-over-year.



• Also at 10:00 AM, Monthly Wholesale Trade: Sales and Inventories for October. The consensus is for a 0.2% increase in inventories.



•During the day: Trulia Price Rent Monitors for November. This is the index from Trulia that uses asking house prices adjusted both for the mix of homes listed for sale and for seasonal factors.



from Calculated Risk http://ift.tt/1yJew0V

via YQ Matrix

Taiwan, China Solar Producers No Threat to U.S., Commission Hears

By REUTERS from NYT Business Day http://ift.tt/12jMCMl

This content was assembled for you by the YQ Matrix platform



The views expressed in this post and throughout the series are the autor's own and not intended to reflect the views the YQ Matrix platform, its users or any associated organisations.



For the procurement people among you, have a look at the latest YQ Matrix raw material and semi-finished prices. For: Prices on other websites.

Chromite prices face a difficult year in 2015

Tough market conditions ensue from lower consumption trends, although some believe bullish Indian steel projections could support industry.



from MPW - Pricing News http://ift.tt/1wpLcxG

via IFTTT

CPO Vigilance: The Most Effective Risk Insurance

There has been some interesting commentary lately in the business press about the desirability of risk insurance for companies as a protection against losses from a variety of hazards. But maybe the answer is investing in procurement...

There has been some interesting commentary lately in the business press about the desirability of risk insurance for companies as a protection against losses from a variety of hazards. For example, CFO Magazine recently touted the value of risk insurance. Other business-advisory sources mention buying insurance too as one of several risk-management strategies. Getting a risk-insurance policy is an interesting idea, but it occurs to me that firms already have a form of risk insurance: procurement.

Certainly, potential risks that could cause havoc abound. Commodity price spikes, supplier bankruptcies, catastrophic climate events such as hurricanes and tsunamis – they’re all among the major risks that businesses face and that procurement has to plan for to keep components and materials coming into their receiving departments so their production lines keep running. And, recent events remind everyone that political unrest is another major risk for businesses.

There have been nationwide protests in the US in the wake of the failure of a Ferguson, MO grand jury to indict a white police officer for killing a black teenager. Riots have disrupted businesses, especially in Ferguson itself. Countless retail shops, restaurants and other local establishments have burned or been looted, damaging the local economy. So far, at least, there has been little news of damage to the hundreds of manufacturing facilities in nearby St. Louis, but that is of little consolation. When human lives, and businesses of any kind, are damaged, the community is damaged too.

The unrest in Ferguson is but a small example of the type of political instability that holds risks for local businesses and the global economy. Hong Kong, China, Vietnam, Thailand, the Middle East, and parts of Africa and Latin America are experiencing or have recently experienced instability that ultimately can affect supply chains. And then, of course, there is Russia’s entrance into Ukraine. Consultancy McKinsey’s recent Economic Conditions Snapshot identified geopolitical instability as a top risk to global growth. In fact, McKinsey’s September’s survey was the third consecutive one in which executives most often cited political turmoil as a threat.

So, maybe buying risk insurance makes sense. But remember, the best insurance, at least when it comes to protecting your supply chain, is your own research and planning. Robert Monczka, consultant, author, former procurement executive, and professor emeritus at Michigan State University and Arizona State University, tells me that CPOs must be "constantly watching the uncertainty in the world, political and social, as well as changes in technology and the ways products are produced." The world doesn’t stand still, he says, and CPOs have to be ready to change their supplier networks quickly.

That kind of vigilance and agility may well be the most cost-effective risk insurance of all.

from Procurement Leaders Blog http://ift.tt/1wns1o4

This content was assembled for you by the YQ Matrix platform



The views expressed in this post and throughout the series are the autor's own and not intended to reflect the views the YQ Matrix platform, its users or any associated organisations.



For the procurement people among you, have a look at the latest YQ Matrix raw material and semi-finished prices. For: Prices on other websites.

Rolling Stone Tries to Regroup After Campus Rape Article Is Disputed

By RAVI SOMAIYA from NYT Business Day http://ift.tt/1zfqWO1

This content was assembled for you by the YQ Matrix platform



The views expressed in this post and throughout the series are the autor's own and not intended to reflect the views the YQ Matrix platform, its users or any associated organisations.



For the procurement people among you, have a look at the latest YQ Matrix raw material and semi-finished prices. For: Prices on other websites.

In the Capital of Coffee, Enthusiasm for Starbucks’ Upmarket Chain

By STEPHANIE STROM from NYT Business Day http://ift.tt/1vT612f

This content was assembled for you by the YQ Matrix platform



The views expressed in this post and throughout the series are the autor's own and not intended to reflect the views the YQ Matrix platform, its users or any associated organisations.



For the procurement people among you, have a look at the latest YQ Matrix raw material and semi-finished prices. For: Prices on other websites.

Winners of $90M Powerball Jackpot to Quit Jobs

By THE ASSOCIATED PRESS from NYT U.S. http://ift.tt/1yshirx

This content was assembled for you by the YQ Matrix platform



The views expressed in this post and throughout the series are the autor's own and not intended to reflect the views the YQ Matrix platform, its users or any associated organisations.



For the procurement people among you, have a look at the latest YQ Matrix raw material and semi-finished prices. For: Prices on other websites.

Black Knight October Mortgage Monitor: "8% of mortgages, 4 million borrowers in negative equity"

Black Knight Financial Services (BKFS) released their Mortgage Monitor report for October today. According to BKFS, 5.44% of mortgages were delinquent in October, down from 5.67% in September. BKFS reported that 1.69% of mortgages were in the foreclosure process, down from 2.54% in October 2013.



This gives a total of 7.13% delinquent or in foreclosure. It breaks down as:



• 1,658,000 properties that are 30 or more days, and less than 90 days past due, but not in foreclosure.

• 1,101,000 properties that are 90 or more days delinquent, but not in foreclosure.

• 858,000 loans in foreclosure process.



For a total of ​​3,617,000 loans delinquent or in foreclosure in October. This is down from 4,427,000 in October 2013.



Click on graph for larger image.



This table from Black Knight is a comparison of 2005 to 2014 originations by Credit Score and LTV. Black Knight notes:

Borrowers with credit scores of 740 and up make up 55 percent of 2014 refinance originations, compared to just 29 percent in 2005



On the other hand, in 2005, 21 percent of refinance originations were to credit scores below 640; today that number is just 8 percent



Today’s purchase market is even more clearly separated; 56 percent of purchase originations were to credit scores of 740 and above, while just 2 percent went to borrowers with scores below 640

It is not surprising that the recent vintages of mortgage loan are the best performing ever!



This graph shows the percent of loans in negative equity grouped by CLTV.



From Black Knight:

Over the past two and a half years, there has been a sustained and continual improvement in negative equity, from 33.5 percent of borrowers being underwater in January 2012 to less than eight percent today



Only 1.2 percent of active mortgages have current CLTVs of 150 percent or higher, down from 9.5 percent in January of 2012 (the bottom of the market in terms of national home prices)



While the overall share of underwater mortgages continues to decline, delinquency rates are increasing among the remaining negative equity mortgages



For the severely underwater – 150 percent or higher current CLTVs – over three out of every four borrowers (77 percent) are delinquent

The good news is there are few borrowers with CLTV at or above 150%. The bad news is - for most of these borrowers - the only way out is foreclosure (or a short sale).



There is much more in the mortgage monitor.



from Calculated Risk http://ift.tt/12A00wL

via YQ Matrix

Price Briefing 28 November – 4 December

Iodine prices unlikely to crash; sodium nitrate prices increase on projected demand from solar



from MPW - Pricing News http://ift.tt/1zUWiYt

via IFTTT

Zircon prices not expected to increase for at least six months

Miners in for a tough first half of 2015, even if consumption recovers



from MPW - Pricing News http://ift.tt/1znY5W0

via IFTTT

Thursday: Unemployment Claims

From the WSJ: Saudi Arabia Sees Oil Prices Stabilizing Around $60 a Barrel

OPEC’s biggest oil producer, Saudi Arabia, now believes oil prices could stabilize at around $60 a barrel, a level both it and other Gulf producers believe they could withstand, according to people familiar with the situation.



The shift in Saudi thinking suggests the de facto leader of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries won’t push for supply cuts in the near-term, even if oil prices fall further. Brent crude dropped 62 cents a barrel to $69.92 on Wednesday.

Another $10 per barrel decline would be good for the economy!



Thursday:

• At 8:30 AM ET, the initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for claims to decrease to 300 thousand from 313 thousand.



from Calculated Risk http://ift.tt/1ymOpgm

via YQ Matrix

Tesco's Shares Rise After CEO's Move to Take the Helm in UK

By REUTERS from NYT Business Day http://ift.tt/1tIPYid

This content was assembled for you by the YQ Matrix platform



The views expressed in this post and throughout the series are the autor's own and not intended to reflect the views the YQ Matrix platform, its users or any associated organisations.



For the procurement people among you, have a look at the latest YQ Matrix raw material and semi-finished prices. For: Prices on other websites.

Belarus leaves tax off potash exports as prices remain steady

Country continues policy of easing sales which began following breakup with Uralkali



from MPW - Pricing News http://ift.tt/1pO6AK6

via IFTTT

Iodine prices unlikely to crash below $25/kg

Industry insiders predict prices will dip below $30/kg, but not by much



from MPW - Pricing News http://ift.tt/1rUxbAM

via IFTTT

Construction Spending increased 1.1% in October

The Census Bureau reported that overall construction spending increased in October:

The U.S. Census Bureau of the Department of Commerce announced today that construction spending during October 2014 was estimated at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $971.0 billion, 1.1 percent above the revised September estimate of $960.3 billion.

Both private and public spending increased in October:

Spending on private construction was at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $692.4 billion, 0.6 percent above the revised September estimate of $688.0 billion. Residential construction was at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $353.8 billion in October, 1.3 percent above the revised September estimate of $349.1 billion. Nonresidential construction was at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $338.6 billion in October, 0.1 percent below the revised September estimate of $338.9 billion. ...



In October, the estimated seasonally adjusted annual rate of public construction spending was $278.6 billion, 2.3 percent above the revised September estimate of $272.3 billion.

emphasis added

Note: Non-residential for offices and hotels is increasing, but spending for oil and gas is declining. Early in the recovery, there was a surge in non-residential spending for oil and gas (because prices increased), but now, with falling prices, oil and gas is a drag on overall construction spending.



As an example, construction spending for lodging is up 16% year-over-year, whereas spending for power (includes oil and gas) construction is declining since peaking in May.



Click on graph for larger image.



This graph shows private residential and nonresidential construction spending, and public spending, since 1993. Note: nominal dollars, not inflation adjusted.



Private residential spending is 48% below the peak in early 2006 - but up 55% from the post-bubble low.



Non-residential spending is 18% below the peak in January 2008, and up about 50% from the recent low.



Public construction spending is now 14% below the peak in March 2009 and about 7% above the post-recession low.



The second graph shows the year-over-year change in construction spending.



On a year-over-year basis, private residential construction spending is now up 2%. Non-residential spending is up 6% year-over-year. Public spending is up 2% year-over-year.



Looking forward, all categories of construction spending should increase in 2015. Residential spending is still very low, non-residential is starting to pickup (except oil and gas), and public spending has probably hit bottom after several years of austerity.



This was a strong report - well above the consensus forecast of a 0.5% increase - and there were also upward revisions to spending in August and September.



from Calculated Risk http://ift.tt/12mfWCG

via YQ Matrix

Fashion's Bridge to the Art World

By KATHLEEN BECKETT from NYT Fashion & Style http://ift.tt/1rS0XWP

This content was assembled for you by the YQ Matrix platform



The views expressed in this post and throughout the series are the autor's own and not intended to reflect the views the YQ Matrix platform, its users or any associated organisations.



For the procurement people among you, have a look at the latest YQ Matrix raw material and semi-finished prices. For: Prices on other websites.

Restaurant Performance Index increased in October

Here is a minor indicator I follow from the National Restaurant Association: Restaurant Performance Index Registered Gain in October

Driven by stronger sales and traffic and a more optimistic outlook among restaurant operators, the National Restaurant Association’s Restaurant Performance Index (RPI) posted a solid gain in October. The RPI – a monthly composite index that tracks the health of and outlook for the U.S. restaurant industry – stood at 102.8 in October, up 1.8 percent from its September level. In addition, the RPI stood above 100 for the 20th consecutive month, which signifies expansion in the index of key industry indicators.



“The positive same-store sales and customer traffic results suggest that restaurants are the beneficiaries of falling gas prices, which were down $0.88 since the end of June,” said Hudson Riehle, senior vice president of the Research and Knowledge Group for the Association. “Elevated food costs continue to top the list of challenges reported by restaurant operators, but overall they remain generally optimistic that business conditions will improve in the months ahead.”

emphasis added

Click on graph for larger image.



The index increased to 102.8 in October, up from 101.0 in September. (above 100 indicates expansion).



Restaurant spending is discretionary, so even though this is "D-list" data, I like to check it every month. This is a strong reading - and as Riehle noted - it appears restaurants are benefiting from lower gasoline prices.



from Calculated Risk http://ift.tt/1yaMQ4O

via YQ Matrix

Tesco CEO Dave Lewis to Lead UK Business

By REUTERS from NYT Business Day http://ift.tt/1y63FdA

This content was assembled for you by the YQ Matrix platform



The views expressed in this post and throughout the series are the autor's own and not intended to reflect the views the YQ Matrix platform, its users or any associated organisations.



For the procurement people among you, have a look at the latest YQ Matrix raw material and semi-finished prices. For: Prices on other websites.

Should The Times Have 'Left It Out' -- and What, Exactly, Was 'It'?

By MARGARET SULLIVAN from NYT Opinion http://ift.tt/1rO3M0P

This content was assembled for you by the YQ Matrix platform



The views expressed in this post and throughout the series are the autor's own and not intended to reflect the views the YQ Matrix platform, its users or any associated organisations.



For the procurement people among you, have a look at the latest YQ Matrix raw material and semi-finished prices. For: Prices on other websites.

ISM Manufacturing index at 58.7 in November

The ISM manufacturing index suggests slightly slower expansion in November than in October. The PMI was at 58.7% in November, down from 59.0% in October. The employment index was at 54.9%, down from 55.5% in October, and the new orders index was at 66.0%, up from 65.8%.



From the Institute for Supply Management: November 2014 Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business®

Economic activity in the manufacturing sector expanded in November for the 18th consecutive month, and the overall economy grew for the 66th consecutive month, say the nation’s supply executives in the latest Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business®.



The report was issued today by Bradley J. Holcomb, CPSM, CPSD, chair of the Institute for Supply Management® (ISM®) Manufacturing Business Survey Committee. "The November PMI® registered 58.7 percent, a decrease of 0.3 percentage point from October’s reading of 59 percent, indicating continued expansion in manufacturing. The New Orders Index registered 66 percent, an increase of 0.2 percentage point from the reading of 65.8 percent in October. The Production Index registered 64.4 percent, 0.4 percentage point below the October reading of 64.8 percent. The Employment Index grew for the 17th consecutive month, registering 54.9 percent, a decrease of 0.6 percentage point below the October reading of 55.5 percent. Inventories of raw materials registered 51.5 percent, a decrease of 1 percentage point from the October reading of 52.5 percent. The Prices Index registered 44.5 percent, down 9 percentage points from the October reading of 53.5 percent, indicating lower raw materials prices in November relative to October. Comments from the panel are upbeat about strong demand and new orders, with some expressing concerns about West Coast port slowdowns and the threat of a potential dock strike."

emphasis added

Click on graph for larger image.



Here is a long term graph of the ISM manufacturing index.



This was above expectations of 58.2%, and indicates solid expansion in November.



from Calculated Risk http://ift.tt/1zIjLw6

via YQ Matrix

Sodium nitrate prices increase on strong demand from solar industry

Suppliers expect to see consumption growth over next three years



from MPW - Pricing News http://ift.tt/1rLlKku

via IFTTT