Imerys ups North American calcium carbonate prices by 10%, warns of freight costs

Customers told to expect delivery cost volatility on top of standard price hikes in US and Mexico



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BEA: Personal Income increased 0.2% in September, Core PCE prices up 1.5% year-over-year

The BEA released the Personal Income and Outlays report for September:

Personal income increased $22.7 billion, or 0.2 percent ... in September, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) decreased $19.0 billion, or 0.2 percent.

...

Real PCE -- PCE adjusted to remove price changes -- decreased 0.2 percent in September, in contrast to an increase of 0.5 percent in August. ... The price index for PCE increased 0.1 percent in September, in contrast to a decrease of 0.1 percent in August. The PCE price index, excluding food and energy, increased 0.1 percent in September, the same increase as in August.

...

Personal saving -- DPI less personal outlays -- was $732.2 billion in September, compared with $702.0 billion in August. The personal saving rate -- personal saving as a percentage of disposable personal income -- was 5.6 percent in September, compared with 5.4 percent in August.

A key point is that the PCE price index was only up 1.4% year-over-year (1.5% for core PCE). This is still below the Fed's target.



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Friday: Personal Income and Outlays, Chicago PMI, Consumer Sentiment

From Freddie Mac: Mortgage Rates Rebound, Remain Below Four Percent

Freddie Mac today released the results of its Primary Mortgage Market Survey® (PMMS®), showing average fixed mortgage rates moving higher across the board this week and rebounding from the lowest rates of the year.



30-year fixed-rate mortgage (FRM) averaged 3.98 percent with an average 0.5 point for the week ending October 30, 2014, up from last week when it averaged 3.92 percent. A year ago at this time, the 30-year FRM averaged 4.10 percent.

Mortgage News Daily shows rates today were at 4.01%.



Friday:

• At 8:30 AM ET, Personal Income and Outlays for September. The consensus is for a 0.3% increase in personal income, and for a 0.1% increase in personal spending. And for the Core PCE price index to increase 0.1%.



• At 9:45 AM, the Chicago Purchasing Managers Index for October. The consensus is for a reading of 60.0, down from 60.5 in September.



• At 9:55 AM, the Reuter's/University of Michigan's Consumer sentiment index (final for October). The consensus is for a reading of 86.4, unchanged from the preliminary reading of 86.4, and up from the September reading of 84.6.



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Price Briefing 24 – 30 October

Antimony and iodine prices fall while Indian barite remains scarce and bromine continues flat but soft



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PL Singapore: To transform, you need to win hearts and minds

The morning of the Singapore Forum kicked off with fascinating talks on procurement transformation.

The morning of the Singapore Forum kicked off with fascinating talks on procurement transformation.

Interestingly, both talks described their use of John Kotter’s work, whose 1995 paper found than 80% of transformation. From this, Kotter deduced eight steps which characterised successful transformation projects:

• Step 1: Create Urgency


• Step 2: Form a Powerful Coalition


• Step 3: Create a Vision for Change


• Step 4: Communicate the Vision


• Step 5: Remove Obstacles


• Step 6: Create Short-Term Wins


• Step 7: Build on the Change


• Step 8: Anchor the Changes in Corporate Culture

Underlining this, the opening key-note, given by Chae-Ung Um, VP of global procurement at LG Electronics, provided a detailed blue print for implementing transformation. The key watchword was planning.

This was central in converting the purchasing function to an unguided, immature back office, into a centralised, global advisor. In 2009, the function only had a single metric: savings of $200 million. Within one year of the creation of a formal procurement function, the team delivered savings of $500 million. Former CPO, Tom Linton, famously described this as “as easy as picking money off the floor.”

The role of recasting talent was also central to this. “We teach people how to influence people,” Chae-Ung Um stated. “The more you influence the more you save. Anything we now touch, we save at the double digits level.”

In the next presentation, Yannick Feder reiterated the importance of managing relationships: “It’s very important to win both people’s hearts and mind. If you don’t have that, you can forget your theory; your transformation won’t work.”

In order to enthuse both stakeholders and procurement teams, Feder empowered staff with greater responsibilities in strategic delivery and insight. He created his own motto to describe this: “Don’t give a child a fish, build his desire to fish.” The idea being, once granted the responsibility to act strategically, a buyer is naturally motivated to align himself with organisational objectives and become more innovate.

In many senses, delivering transformation requires first a plan to deliver energised and engaged teams.

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Why companies don’t sign contracts by Tom Moore

piblogger:

Editor’s Note: Are contracts really necessary?

Originally posted on Procurement Insights EU Edition:

It is surprising how often contracts between companies are not signed or executed properly. Case law is full of examples of disputes occurring between organisations who are both working to an unsigned contract. These usually centre on ‘contract by performance’ issues, i.e. there was a contract sort of agreed but it was never actually signed. One company is claiming that its version of the contract is the correct one and the other is relying on a different version. This unfortunately can end up in the infamous ‘money for lawyers’ scenario.

So, based on the premise that a signed contract is a good thing, why don’t companies sometimes sign contracts? I would speculate that the principle reason for this is bureaucratic inertia. It is often more difficult to sign a contract than to start working without anything signed-off. For example, in the following scenario:

In Big Company Ltd, the business process…

View original 509 more words

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IM Prices November 2014

Low consumption in magnets and phosphors; Cerium prices negotiated down in Europe



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Potash and barite supply tightens while fused magnesia faces overcapacity

Antimony, iodine suffer from slow China growth; Tough times continue for TiO2 pigment market; FM producers storing up trouble for the future



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Iodine prices slide further as market landscape begins to change

Chilean prices overtake Japan; new salts plant in Chile could disrupt trade to India



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Responding to Reader Concerns on Ebola Coverage

By MARGARET SULLIVAN from NYT Opinion http://ift.tt/1wzuNDi

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US importers unable to obtain barite from India, prices stable

India’s APMDC silent over tender plans; market coping with shortages



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Tuesday: Case-Shiller House Prices, Durable Goods, and much more

From Nick Timiraos at the WSJ: Gas at $3 Carries Rewards—and Risks

Gasoline prices have dropped below $3 a gallon at most U.S. gas stations, delivering a welcome lift to American consumers and retailers heading into the holidays. But the related oil-price drop has a thorny underside: It is threatening to slow the nation’s energy boom and hit the broader economy.

I'll take the rewards! Besides $80 per barrel isn't cheap. In January 2001, oil was under $30 per barrel (about $40 adjusted for inflation), and then increased more than four-fold to $134 per barrel in 2008 - before crashing during the financial crisis.



Tuesday:

• At 8:30 AM ET, Durable Goods Orders for September from the Census Bureau. The consensus is for a 0.9% increase in durable goods orders.



• At 9:00 AM, the S&P/Case-Shiller House Price Index for August. Although this is the August report, it is really a 3 month average of June, July and August prices. The consensus is for a 4.9% year-over-year increase in the National Index for August , down from 5.7% in July (consensus 5.8% increase in Comp 20). The Zillow forecast is for the Composite 20 to increase 5.7% year-over-year in August, and for prices to increase 0.1% month-to-month seasonally adjusted.



• At 10:00 AM, the Richmond Fed Survey of Manufacturing Activity for October.



• Also at 10:00 AM, the Conference Board's consumer confidence index for October. The consensus is for the index to increase to 87.2 from 86.0.



• Also at 10:00 AM, the Q3 Housing Vacancies and Homeownership report from the Census Bureau. This report is frequently mentioned by analysts and the media to report on the homeownership rate, and the homeowner and rental vacancy rates. However, this report doesn't track with other measures (like the decennial Census and the ACS).



• During the day, the Q3 NMHC Apartment Tightness Index.



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Chiquita and Brazilian Group Announce Takeover Deal for Banana Producer

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Trioxide grade antimony falls as traders look to cut losses

Weak outlook spooks sellers as trioxide producers fight to make margins



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Black Knight: House Price Index up 0.1% in August, Up 4.9% year-over-year

Note: I follow several house price indexes (Case-Shiller, CoreLogic, Black Knight, Zillow, FHFA, FNC and more). The timing of different house prices indexes can be a little confusing. Black Knight uses the current month closings only (not a three month average like Case-Shiller or a weighted average like CoreLogic), excludes short sales and REOs, and is not seasonally adjusted.



From Black Knight: U.S. Home Prices Up 0.1 Percent for the Month; Up 4.9 Percent Year-Over-Year

Today, the Data and Analytics division of Black Knight Financial Services (formerly the LPS Data & Analytics division) released its latest Home Price Index (HPI) report, based on August 2014 residential real estate transactions. The Black Knight HPI combines the company’s extensive property and loan-level databases to produce a repeat sales analysis of home prices as of their transaction dates every month for each of more than 18,500 U.S. ZIP codes. The Black Knight HPI represents the price of non-distressed sales by taking into account price discounts for REO and short sales.

The Black Knight HPI is off 10.1% from the peak in June 2006 (not adjusted for inflation).



The year-over-year increases have been getting steadily smaller for the last 11 months - as shown in the table below:

Month	YoY House Price Increase
Jan-13	6.7%
Feb-13	7.3%
Mar-13	7.6%
Apr-13	8.1%
May-13	7.9%
Jun-13	8.4%
Jul-13	8.7%
Aug-13	9.0%
Sep-13	9.0%
Oct-13	8.8%
Nov-13	8.5%
Dec-13	8.4%
Jan-14	8.0%
Feb-14	7.6%
Mar-14	7.0%
Apr-14	6.4%
May-14	5.9%
June-14	5.5%
July-14	5.1%
Aug-14	4.9%

The press release has data for the 20 largest states, and 40 MSAs.



Black Knight shows prices off 41.2% from the peak in Las Vegas, off 34.4% in Orlando, and 31.5% off from the peak in Riverside-San Bernardino, CA (Inland Empire). Prices are at new highs in Colorado and Texas (Denver, Austin, Dallas, Houston and San Antonio metros). Prices are also at new highs in Honolulu, HI, Nashville, TN and San Jose, CA.



Note: Case-Shiller for August will be released tomorrow.



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Wikipedia Is Emerging as Trusted Internet Source for Information on Ebola

By NOAM COHEN from NYT Business Day http://ift.tt/1t72niQ

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Index of Private Housing Rental Prices, Reference Tables, September 2014

Index of Private Housing Rental Prices full historical monthly series (index values and annual percentage change).



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Index of Private Housing Rental Prices - July to September 2014 results

The Index of Private Housing Rental Prices (IPHRP) is a quarterly experimental price index. It tracks the prices paid for renting property from private landlords in Great Britain.



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Index of Private Housing Rental Prices, July to September 2014

The Index of Private Housing Rental Prices (IPHRP) measures the change in price of property rented by private landlords. The index is published as a series of price indices covering Great Britain, its constituent countries and the English regions.



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In Emerging Indonesia, Honda's Mobilio Muscles In on Toyota's Turf

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Gone, in an Instant Auction

By CAROL VOGEL from NYT Arts http://ift.tt/1ypYdUT

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Price Briefing 17 – 23 October

Antimony and TiO2 minerals stagger under overcapacity; rare earths remain steady



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PhosAgro nine-month production up 5.6% as sales climb 4.3%

The sales and production increases follow strong H1 2014 results for the company, in a string of strong performances.



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Philly Fed: State Coincident Indexes increased in 43 states in September

From the Philly Fed:

The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia has released the coincident indexes for the 50 states for September 2014. In the past month, the indexes increased in 43 states, decreased in four, and remained stable in three, for a one-month diffusion index of 78. Over the past three months, the indexes increased in 44 states, decreased in five, and remained stable in one, for a three-month diffusion index of 78

Note: These are coincident indexes constructed from state employment data. An explanation from the Philly Fed:

The coincident indexes combine four state-level indicators to summarize current economic conditions in a single statistic. The four state-level variables in each coincident index are nonfarm payroll employment, average hours worked in manufacturing, the unemployment rate, and wage and salary disbursements deflated by the consumer price index (U.S. city average). The trend for each state’s index is set to the trend of its gross domestic product (GDP), so long-term growth in the state’s index matches long-term growth in its GDP.

Click on graph for larger image.



This is a graph is of the number of states with one month increasing activity according to the Philly Fed. This graph includes states with minor increases (the Philly Fed lists as unchanged).



In September, 45 states had increasing activity (including minor increases). This measure declined sharply during the winter, but is close to normal for a recovery.





Here is a map of the three month change in the Philly Fed state coincident indicators. This map was all red during the worst of the recession, and is mostly green again.



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PhosAgro 9M production up 5.6%, sales up 4.3%

The sales and production increases follow strong H1 2014 results for the company, in a string of strong performances.



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FHFA: House Prices increased 0.5% in August, Up 4.8% Year-over-year

This house price index is only for houses with Fannie or Freddie mortgages.



From the FHFA: FHFA House Price Index Up 0.5 Percent in August

U.S. house prices rose in August, up 0.5 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from the previous month, according to the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) monthly House Price Index (HPI). The previously reported 0.1 percent increase in July was revised to reflect a 0.2 percent increase.



The FHFA HPI is calculated using home sales price information from mortgages sold to or guaranteed by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. From August 2013 to August 2014, house prices were up 4.8 percent. The U.S. index is 5.8 percent below its April 2007 peak and is roughly the same as the August 2005 index level. This is the ninth consecutive monthly house price increase.



For the nine census divisions, seasonally adjusted monthly price changes from July 2014 to August 2014 ranged from -0.6 percent in the New England and South Atlantic divisions to +1.2 percent in the Mountain division. The 12-month changes were all positive ranging from +1.9 percent in the Middle Atlantic division to +7.8 percent in the Pacific division.

emphasis added

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Thursday: Unemployment Claims, FHFA House Price Index

From Kathleen Madigan at the WSJ: Why Rising Rents Haven’t Pumped Up Inflation

For the 12 months ended in September, [owners’ equivalent rent] OER is up 2.7%, up from 2.2% a year ago. (Actual rent paid by tenants is up a faster 3.3%.)



OER is the big gorilla in the inflation room. It accounts for 24% of the total CPI and 31% of the core. So why isn’t the accelerating OER rate pushing up the core? Because other factors are offsetting the upward push.



The biggest drag is the downward pressure on goods prices coming from overseas. ... On the service side, other major categories have seen a slowdown in markups.

Without OER, inflation would be even lower. If we look at shelter¹, All times less Shelter is up just 1.1% year-over-year, and All items less food, shelter, and energy is only up 0.9%.



Rents can't keep rising this quickly without rising wages. And without rising rents, inflation would be even lower.



Thursday:

• At 8:30 AM ET, the initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for claims to increase to 285 thousand from 264 thousand.



• Also at 8:30 AM, the Chicago Fed National Activity Index for September. This is a composite index of other data.



• At 9:00 AM, the FHFA House Price Index for August. This was originally a GSE only repeat sales, however there is also an expanded index. The consensus is for a 0.3% increase.



• At 9:00 AM, the Kansas City Fed manufacturing survey for October.



¹ From the BLS: "Rent of primary residence (rent) and Owners' equivalent rent of primary residence (rental equivalence) are the two main shelter components of the Consumer Price Index (CPI)."



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Rare earth prices steady on weak demand suggestive of lower inventories

Chinese magnet manufacturers reported to be idling capacity as market continues soft.



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Wednesday: Consumer Price Index

Here is a forecast for 2015 from the MBA: MBA Sees Originations Increasing Seven Percent in 2015

The Mortgage Bankers Association announced today that it expects to see $1.19 trillion in mortgage originations during 2015, a seven percent increase from 2014. While MBA anticipates purchase originations will increase 15 percent, it expects refinance originations to decrease three percent.



MBA’s forecast predicts purchase originations will increase to $731 billion in 2015, up from $635 billion in 2014. In contrast, refinances are expected to drop to $457 billion, from $471 billion, in 2014.



For 2016, MBA is forecasting purchase originations of $791 billion and refinance originations of $379 billion for a total of $1.17 trillion.



“We are projecting that home purchase originations will increase in 2015 as the US economy continues on its current path of stronger growth, job gains and declining unemployment. The job market has shown sustained improvement this year; with robust monthly increases in both payroll jobs and job openings,” said Michael Fratantoni, MBA’s Chief Economist and Senior Vice President for Research and Industry Technology. “We are forecasting that strong job growth, coupled with still low mortgage rates, should translate to an increase in home sales and purchase originations.

emphasis added

Wednesday:

• At 7:00 AM ET, the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index.



• At 8:30 AM, the Consumer Price Index for September. The consensus is for no change in CPI in September and for core CPI to increase 0.1%.



NOTE: When CPI is released on Wednesday, the Cost-of-living adjustment for 2015 will be released. If CPI-W is unchanged in September, COLA will be around 1.7%.



• During the day, the AIA's Architecture Billings Index for September (a leading indicator for commercial real estate).



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Electrolux Buoyed by US Growth

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Antimony trioxide prices stable while metal prices dip

Standard grade II metal values fall as traders attempt to kick-start market



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Hamilton: "How will Saudi Arabia respond to lower oil prices?"

Some interesting thoughts from Professor Hamilton: How will Saudi Arabia respond to lower oil prices?

Oil prices (along with prices of many other commodities) have fallen dramatically since last summer. Some observers are waiting to see if Saudi Arabia responds with significant cutbacks in production. I say, don’t hold your breath.

...

Last week I discussed the three main factors in the recent fall in oil prices: (1) signs of a return of Libyan production to historical levels, (2) surging production from the U.S., and (3) growing indications of weakness in the world economy.



As far as Libya is concerned, the politics on the ground remain quite unsettled. It makes sense to wait and see if anticipated production gains are really going to hold before anybody makes major adjustments.



In terms of surging U.S. production, the key question is how low the price can get before significant numbers of U.S. producers decide to pull out. If world economic growth indeed slows, and if most of the frackers are willing to keep going strong even if the price falls to $80 a barrel, trying to maintain the price at $90 could be a losing bet for the Saudis. They’d be giving up their own revenue just in order to keep the money flowing into ever-growing operations in Texas and North Dakota.



And if some of the U.S. producers do move into the red at current prices, it’s in the Saudis’ longer-term interests to let that pain take its toll until some of the newcomers decide to pack up and go home. If U.S. production does decline, prices would quickly move back up. But if that happens after a shake-out, the next time there would be less enthusiasm for everybody to jump into the game if they always have to keep an eye on whether they might be undercut again. This may be less of an issue for the U.S. tight oil producers, who can move in or out much more easily than operations like deepwater or artic, where there are huge fixed costs, long lead times, and a much bigger unavoidable loss if you gamble on prices always staying high.



And as for worries of another global economic downturn, so far they are only that– worries. If and when we see a downturn materialize, then I would expect to see the Saudis cut back production.



But until then it’s primarily a question of responding to surging output of U.S. tight oil. My guess is that Saudi Arabia would lower prices rather than cut production as long as that’s the name of the game.

emphasis added

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12 Treasures of Europe

By THE NEW YORK TIMES from NYT Travel http://ift.tt/1wjLqnz

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GTT ★

By MICHAEL HOINSKI from NYT U.S. http://ift.tt/1wcLEuL

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Price Briefing 10 – 16 October

Iodine and rare earths fall while Indian soda ash prices climb



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Soda ash and industrial salt prices on the rise in India

Rising salt values push up soda ash prices and narrow margins for glass makers



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A New Band of Fashion Brothers

By JOHN ORTVED from NYT Fashion & Style http://ift.tt/1vf3NK8

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Whole Foods to Rate Its Produce and Flowers for Environmental Impact

By STEPHANIE STROM from NYT Business Day http://ift.tt/1Dc3i5K

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While Microsoft CEO’s comment upsetting, it is not entirely wrong

piblogger:

Editor’s Note: In her latest blog, Roz Usheroff talks about the truth behind the spark of controversy that Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella ignited when he suggested that women should stay silent and simply trust the system when it comes to getting a raise.

While there are suggestions of bias against women in the high tech industry, are things any better for women in the procurement world?

Originally posted on The Remarkable Leader:

By now everyone in the social media world and beyond is likely talking about the recent comment by Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella in which he suggested that “women don’t need to ask for a raise and should just trust the system to pay them well.”

In a monumental effort to regain creditability as a leader and quell the flames of indignation, Mr. Nadella apologized for his response to the question what advice would you give to women who are uncomfortable requesting a raise.

Despite being politically incorrect, the irony is that Mr. Nadella’s advice is actually sound. This in and of itself is the real issue with which everyone in the business world should be more concerned.

According to the results of a Yale University 2012 study conducted by Professor Victoria Brescoll, “when men talk a lot, people want to reward them. But when women do it, they are…

View original 528 more words

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Fed's Beige Book: Economic Activity Expanded "modest to moderate" pace

Fed's Beige Book "Prepared at the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis and based on information collected before October 6, 2014."

Reports from the twelve Federal Reserve Districts generally described modest to moderate economic growth at a pace similar to that noted in the previous Beige Book. Moderate growth was reported by the Cleveland, Chicago, St. Louis, Minneapolis, Dallas, and San Francisco Districts, while modest growth was reported by the New York, Philadelphia, Richmond, Atlanta, and Kansas City Districts. In the Boston District, reports from business contacts painted a mixed picture of economic conditions. In addition, several Districts noted that contacts were generally optimistic about future activity.

And on real estate:

Reports on residential construction and real estate activity were mixed. New York noted that single-family construction was sluggish in some areas, but that multifamily construction increased. Philadelphia reported only slight growth in home construction. In August, single-family construction starts in the Cleveland District reached their highest level so far this year, though the number of starts year-to-date remained slightly lower than last year. Richmond noted that residential construction across the District increased slightly for custom homes. Atlanta reported that multifamily construction continued to increase across much of the District, while Chicago indicated that both single- and multi-family construction continued to expand. Residential real estate contacts in the Atlanta District indicated that existing home sales and prices remained ahead of last year's levels and inventory levels were down from a year ago. Chicago noted that home sales were somewhat lower, and growth in home prices and residential rents slowed. San Francisco reported that sales of single-family homes were stable since the previous report.



Commercial construction and real estate activity grew in most Districts. Richmond, St. Louis, and San Francisco reported increased commercial construction, industrial construction, or both. Cleveland noted that a majority of commercial contractors saw increased construction activity relative to a year ago. Commercial contractors in the Atlanta District saw an increase in construction activity across many property types. In Minneapolis, however, commercial construction activity declined. Richmond reported that commercial real estate activity improved modestly over the past several weeks. The New York District noted that the New York City office market continued to strengthen. Atlanta noted that many commercial brokers saw growth in activity. Chicago noted that commercial real estate activity continued to expand. Kansas City indicated that commercial vacancy rates declined and absorption and sales increased. Boston noted that commercial real estate fundamentals are either holding steady or improving.

emphasis added

Residential real estate is "mixed', although nonresidential is seeing some growth.



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House Price Index, August 2014

Mix-adjusted average house prices and house price indices for the UK and its component countries and regions.



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Wednesday: Retail Sales, PPI, NY Fed Mfg Survey, Beige Book and More

An amazing story from Bob Koslow as the Daytona Beach News Journal: In Ocean Hammock, dream house, ocean view, wrong lot (ht Walt)

Six months after building a large custom house with an ocean view, Missouri residents Mark and Brenda Voss learned of a big problem – it’s on the wrong lot.



Their three-story vacation rental house with an estimated construction value of $680,000 actually sits on the lot next to the one they own in the gated Ocean Hammock resort community.

Oops!



Wednesday:

• At 7:00 AM ET, the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index.



• At 8:30 AM, Retail sales for September will be released. The consensus is for retail sales to decrease 0.1% in September, and to increase 0.3% ex-autos.



• Also at 8:30 AM, the Producer Price Index for September from the BLS. The consensus is for a 0.1% increase in prices, and a 0.1% increase in core PPI.



• Also at 8:30 AM, the NY Fed Empire Manufacturing Survey for October. The consensus is for a reading of 20.0, down from 27.5 in September (above zero is expansion).



• At 10:00 AM, Manufacturing and Trade: Inventories and Sales (business inventories) report for August. The consensus is for a 0.4% increase in inventories.



• At 2:00 PM, the Federal Reserve Beige Book, an informal review by the Federal Reserve Banks of current economic conditions in their Districts.



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DataQuick on California Bay Area: Strongest September for Home Sales in Five Years, Distressed Sales and Investor Buying declines

From DataQuick: Strongest September for Bay Area Home Sales in Five Years; Prices Flat

The number of homes sold in the Bay Area last month edged up to its highest level for a September since 2009, the result of some spillover summer activity and sustained demand in a strong regional economy. Prices appear to have flattened out at a level reached this spring, Irvine-based CoreLogic DataQuick reported.



A total of 7,443 new and resale houses and condos sold in the nine-county Bay Area last month. That was down 1.8 percent from 7,578 in August and up 4.2 percent from 7,141 in September last year, according to CoreLogic DataQuick.



A decline in sales from August to September is normal for the season. Last month’s sales count was the highest for any September since 7,879 homes were sold in 2009.

...

“Some analysts are re-calculating what they consider to be normal sales levels, taking out the ‘loans-gone-wild’ years of over-available credit. And if you do that, current sales are right in the normal range. We still have issues today, though. The mortgage market is still dysfunctional. There are categories of buying and selling that are still inactive, and nobody really has any idea just how much pent-up demand there is out there,” said John Karevoll, CoreLogic DataQuick analyst.

...

Last month foreclosure resales – homes that had been foreclosed on in the prior 12 months – accounted for 2.8 percent of resales, unchanged from a revised 2.8 percent the month before, and down from 3.6 percent a year ago. Foreclosure resales in the Bay Area peaked at 52.0 percent in February 2009, while the monthly average over the past 17 years is 9.7 percent, CoreLogic DataQuick reported.



Short sales – transactions where the sale price fell short of what was owed on the property – made up an estimated 3.6 percent of Bay Area resales last month. That was down from an estimated 3.8 percent in August and down from 7.5 percent a year earlier.



Last month absentee buyers – mostly investors – purchased 19.1 percent of all Bay Area homes. That was up from August’s revised 18.6 percent, and down from 20.9 percent in September last year.

emphasis added

A few key year-over-year trends: 1) declining distressed sales, 2) generally declining investor buying, 3) generally flat total sales (up 4.2% year-over-year in September), 4) an increase in non-distressed sales.



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Tesco Suspends Three More Employees in Accounting Probe

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Iodine price slide continues

Values track lower led by softer Chilean deals



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House Price Index - August 2014

A monthly House Price Index (HPI) based on mortgage completions data from the Regulated Mortgage Survey (RMS).



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House Price Index, August 2014: Annual Tables 20 to 39

UK housing market analysis including house price inflation and distribution of mortgage advances. This House Price Index reference table contains 20 tables relating to the ONS House Price Index.



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House Price Index, August 2014

Mix-adjusted average house prices and house price indices for the UK and its component countries and regions.



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DataQuick on SoCal: September Home Sales up 1% Year-over-year, Distressed Sales and Investor Buying Declines Further

From DataQuick: Southland Home Sales Edge Higher; Price Growth Slows

Southern California home sales hit a five-year high for a September, rising slightly above a year earlier for the first time in 12 months amid gains for mid- to high-end deals. ... A total of 19,348 new and resale houses and condos sold in Los Angeles, Riverside, San Diego, Ventura, San Bernardino and Orange counties last month. That was up 2.9 percent from 18,796 sales in August, and up 1.2 percent from 19,112 sales in September 2013, according to CoreLogic DataQuick data. ...



On average, sales have fallen 9.4 percent between August and September since 1988, when CoreLogic DataQuick statistics begin. Last month marked the first time sales have risen on a year-over-year basis since September last year, when sales rose 7.0 percent from September 2012.

...

Foreclosure resales – homes foreclosed on in the prior 12 months – represented 4.7 percent of the Southland resale market last month. That was down from a revised 5.0 percent the prior month and down from 6.4 percent a year earlier. In recent months the foreclosure resale rate has been the lowest since early 2007. In the current cycle, foreclosure resales hit a high of 56.7 percent in February 2009.



Short sales – transactions where the sale price fell short of what was owed on the property – made up an estimated 6.0 percent of Southland resales last month. That was up insignificantly from 5.9 percent the prior month and down from 10.9 percent a year earlier.



Absentee buyers – mostly investors and some second-home purchasers – bought 23.3 percent of the Southland homes sold last month. That was the lowest absentee share since October 2010, when 22.1 percent of homes sold to absentee buyers. Last month’s figure was down from 23.8 percent the prior month and down from 27.0 percent a year earlier. ...

emphasis added

Even with distressed sales and investor buying declining, overall sales were still up year-over-year.



The NAR is scheduled to release existing home sales for September on Tuesday, October 21st - and it appears sales will be up from August on a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) basis.



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"Disinflation, Here We Come"

From Evan Soltas: Disinflation, Here We Come

Spot prices for oil have dropped 20 percent in the last three months, from $110 to $90 a barrel. If they remain at these levels, inflation in the United States will slow quite a bit, and quickly at that. My estimate is that headline PCE inflation will fall to just under 1 percent within the next three months of data.

...

Recall that PCE inflation is 1.5 percent year-over-year. So, one surprise from energy markets, and we could be below one percent. At a time when we are supposed to be a couple months away from a rate hike, this could complicate the exit plan.

This is why it is important to look at core measures of inflation (core CPI and PCE that remove energy), and other measures of underlying inflation such as the Cleveland Fed's median CPI and trimmed-mean CPI.



And from Tim Duy: The Methodical Fed

Just a few months ago the specter of inflation dominated Wall Street. Now the tables have turned and low inflation is again the worry du jour as a deflationary wave propagates from the rest of the world - think Europe, China, oil prices. How quickly sentiment changes.



And given how quickly sentiment changes, I am loath to make any predictions on the implications for Fed policy. ...



Bottom Line: Fed policy might sound dovish this week, but take note the the underlying tone has been methodically hawkish for a long, long time. And markets have responded accordingly, including anticipating a return to the zero bound when the next recession hits. Nor should this be unexpected. Monetary policymakers have yet to set clear objectives that includes a high probability that the zero bound is left behind for good.

One think is clear, Fed Chair Janet was correct in June when she said

"I think recent readings on CPI index have been a bit on the high side but I think the data we're seeing is noisy. Broadly speaking inflation is evolving in line with the committee's expectations."

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Dull export market leaves rare earths prices stable

Cerium narrows down slightly on weak European demand; US consumption tipped for rebound



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Fed Vice Chairman Fischer: "The Federal Reserve and the Global Economy"

For your Saturday reading pleasure, from Fed Vice Chairman Stanley Fischer: The Federal Reserve and the Global Economy. Here is the conclusion:

To summarize and conclude, the Fed's statutory objectives are defined by its dual mandate to pursue maximum sustainable employment and price stability in the U.S. economy. But the U.S. economy and the economies of the rest of the world have important feedback effects on each other. To make coherent policy choices, we have to take these feedback effects into account. The most important contribution that U.S. policymakers can make to the health of the world economy is to keep our own house in order--and the same goes for all countries. Because the dollar is the primary international currency, we have, in the past, had to take action--particularly in times of global economic crisis--to maintain order in international capital markets, such as the central bank liquidity swap lines extended during the global financial crisis. In that case, we were acting in accordance with our dual mandate, in the interest of the U.S. economy, by taking actions that also benefit the world economy. Going forward, we will continue to be guided by those same principles.

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Cloud Computing is Forcing a Reconsideration of Intellectual Property

By QUENTIN HARDY from NYT Technology http://ift.tt/1sqvL5K

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Doubts as HP Poises for a Split

By JAMES B. STEWART from NYT Business Day http://ift.tt/1smj23Y

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How do procurement professionals know when “The Price Is Right”? by Jon Hansen

Editor’s Note: I just came across this post on LinkedIn and could not help but wonder if procurement professionals and suppliers share the same view in terms of what constitutes the “right price.”

Click on the image below to access the article and then share your thoughts.

When is The Price Right?

30

from Procurement Insights http://procureinsights.wordpress.com/2014/10/10/how-do-procurement-professionals-know-when-the-price-is-right-by-jon-hansen/

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Price Briefing 3 – 9 October

Turkish and Indian barite edge up while rare earths and TiO2 minerals continue to sink



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Trulia: Asking House Prices up 6.4% year-over-year in September

From Trulia chief economist Jed Kolko: Condo Prices and Apartment Rents Outpacing Single-Family Home Costs

Nationally, the month-over-month increase in asking home prices rose to 0.8% in September. Year-over-year, asking prices rose 6.4%, down from the 10.4% year-over-year increase in September 2013. Asking prices rose year-over-year in 92 of the 100 largest U.S. metros.

...

Nationally, rents rose 6.5% year-over-year in September. Apartment rents were up 6.9%, while single-family home rents gained 5.2%. Like the for-sale market, the rental market is tighter for multi-unit buildings than for single family homes.

emphasis added

Note: These asking prices are SA (Seasonally Adjusted) - and adjusted for the mix of homes - and although year-over-year price increases have slowed, the month-to-month increase suggests further house price increases over the next few months on a seasonally adjusted basis.



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Rare earths prices sink lower on weak demand from magnets and phosphors

Chinese holiday and domestic oversupply pull market down in early October



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Elizabeth Jaeger, Former Model, Reshaping Her Career

By RACHEL SMALL from NYT Fashion & Style http://ift.tt/1o0dE5K

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Thursday: Unemployment Claims

From Binyamin Appelbaum at the NY Times: Fed Officials Reinforce Rate Outlook, but Seek Flexibility

The minutes showed that the central bank was continuing to play for time as it sought greater clarity about the health of the economy. Job growth has been relatively strong this year, and the unemployment rate is fast falling toward what the Fed regards as a normal level. But inflation has been relatively weak, a problem in its own right, and there is strong evidence the labor market may be weaker than it seems.



Economic data since the meeting has accentuated both trends. The economy added 248,000 jobs in September, while inflation was again weaker than expected. The growth of other large economies is also lagging behind the United States, and some of those countries are pushing to devalue their currencies.



Fed officials at the meeting expressed concerns that these trends could weaken domestic growth and further suppress inflation. The Fed’s staff reported that it did not expect inflation to reach the Fed’s preferred 2 percent annual pace over the next several years.

Thursday:

• Early: Trulia Price Rent Monitors for September. This is the index from Trulia that uses asking house prices adjusted both for the mix of homes listed for sale and for seasonal factors.



• At 8:30 AM ET, the initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for claims to increase to 293 thousand from 287 thousand.



• At 10:00 AM, Monthly Wholesale Trade: Sales and Inventories for August. The consensus is for a 0.3% increase in inventories



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FOMC Minutes: "Costs of downside shocks to the economy would be larger than those of upside shocks"

Note: Not every member of the FOMC agrees, but I think this is the key sentence: "the costs of downside shocks to the economy would be larger than those of upside shocks because, in current circumstances, it would be less problematic to remove accommodation quickly, if doing so becomes necessary, than to add accommodation".



There was also some discussion about the impact of a strong dollar (weaker exports, lower inflation).



From the Fed: Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee, September 16-17, 2014. Excerpts:

Inflation had been running below the Committee's longer-run objective, and the readings on consumer prices over the intermeeting period were somewhat softer than during the preceding four months, in part because of declining energy prices. Most participants anticipated that inflation would move gradually back toward its objective over the medium term. However, participants differed somewhat in their assessments of how quickly inflation would move up. Some cited the stability of longer-run inflation expectations at a level consistent with the Committee's objective as an important factor in their forecasts that inflation would reach 2 percent in coming years. Participants' views on the responsiveness of inflation to the level and change in resource utilization varied, with a few seeing labor markets as sufficiently tight that wages and prices would soon begin to move up noticeably but with some others indicating that inflation was unlikely to approach 2 percent until the unemployment rate falls below its longer-run normal level. While most viewed the risk that inflation would run persistently below 2 percent as having diminished somewhat since earlier in the year, a couple noted the possibility that longer-term inflation expectations might be slightly lower than the Committee's 2 percent objective or that domestic inflation might be held down by persistent disinflation among U.S. trading partners and further appreciation of the dollar.



In their discussion of the appropriate path for monetary policy over the medium term, meeting participants agreed that the timing of the first increase in the federal funds rate and the appropriate path of the policy rate thereafter would depend on incoming economic data and their implications for the outlook. That said, several participants thought that the current forward guidance regarding the federal funds rate suggested a longer period before liftoff, and perhaps also a more gradual increase in the federal funds rate thereafter, than they believed was likely to be appropriate given economic and financial conditions. In addition, the concern was raised that the reference to "considerable time" in the current forward guidance could be misunderstood as a commitment rather than as data dependent. However, it was noted that the current formulation of the Committee's forward guidance clearly indicated that the Committee's policy decisions were conditional on its ongoing assessment of realized and expected progress toward its objectives of maximum employment and 2 percent inflation, and that its assessment reflected its review of a broad array of economic indicators. It was emphasized that the current forward guidance for the federal funds rate was data dependent and did not indicate that the first increase in the target range for the federal funds rate would occur mechanically after some fixed calendar interval following the completion of the current asset purchase program. If employment and inflation converged more rapidly toward the Committee's goals than currently expected, the date of liftoff could be earlier, and subsequent increases in the federal funds rate target more rapid, than participants currently anticipated. Conversely, if employment and inflation returned toward the Committee's objectives more slowly than currently anticipated, the date of liftoff for the federal funds rate could be later, and future federal funds rate target increases could be more gradual. In addition, some participants saw the current forward guidance as appropriate in light of risk-management considerations, which suggested that it would be prudent to err on the side of patience while awaiting further evidence of sustained progress toward the Committee's goals. In their view, the costs of downside shocks to the economy would be larger than those of upside shocks because, in current circumstances, it would be less problematic to remove accommodation quickly, if doing so becomes necessary, than to add accommodation. A number of participants also noted that changes to the forward guidance might be misinterpreted as a signal of a fundamental shift in the stance of policy that could result in an unintended tightening of financial conditions.



Participants also discussed how the forward-guidance language might evolve once the Committee decides that the current formulation no longer appropriately conveys its intentions about the future stance of policy. Most participants indicated a preference for clarifying the dependence of the current forward guidance on economic data and the Committee's assessment of progress toward its objectives of maximum employment and 2 percent inflation. A clarification along these lines was seen as likely to improve the public's understanding of the Committee's reaction function while allowing the Committee to retain flexibility to respond appropriately to changes in the economic outlook. One participant favored using a numerical threshold based on the inflation outlook as a form of forward guidance. A few participants, however, noted the difficulties associated with expressing forward guidance in terms of numerical thresholds for some set of economic variables. Another participant indicated a preference for reducing reliance on explicit forward guidance in the statement and conveying instead guidance regarding the future stance of monetary policy through other mechanisms, including the SEP. It was noted that providing explicit forward guidance regarding the future path of the federal funds rate might become less important once a highly accommodative stance of policy is no longer appropriate and the process of policy normalization is well under way.



It was generally agreed that when changes to the forward guidance become appropriate, they will likely present communication challenges, and that caution will be needed to avoid sending unintended signals about the Committee's policy outlook.

emphasis added

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Turkish drilling grade barite prices up by 8%

Production costs, solid demand and Indian supply squeeze support value of Turkey-mined material



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Syria Ranks Bottom in Index on Civil Unrest Threat to Business

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Perdue Defends Career Amid Outsourcing Report

By THE ASSOCIATED PRESS from NYT U.S. http://ift.tt/1xiLPp5

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Becton Dickinson to Buy CareFusion for $12 Billion in Cash, Stock

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Goldman: "Fed likely still holds $1 trillion MBS by the end of 2020"

Some interesting analysis from Hui Shan, Marty Young, Chris Henson at Goldman Sachs: Fed likely still holds $1 trillion MBS by the end of 2020

The QE program is set to end after the October FOMC meeting. In the updated exit strategy principles released on September 17, the committee announced that it anticipates (1) portfolio reinvestments will continue until after the first rate hike and (2) sales of MBS will not occur during the normalization process. The Federal Reserve currently holds close to $1.8 trillion agency MBS, accounting for one third of the total outstanding. Our US economics team forecasts the first Federal funds rate hike in 2015Q3 and the portfolio reinvestment continuing through 2015. This projection combined with the FOMC’s exit strategy principles suggests that the Federal Reserve is likely to remain the largest agency MBS investor for a long time.

...

The speed of the portfolio rundown when the Fed stops reinvesting depends on the speed of principal payments, both scheduled (i.e., through amortization) and unscheduled (i.e., through refinancing, home sales, and defaults). While scheduled principal payments are pre-determined, unscheduled principal payments depend on a host of factors such as interest rates, house prices, and economic conditions. ...



Under our baseline scenario, the Federal Reserve continues reinvesting principal payments through 2015. After that, the Fed portfolio declines slowly, with the Fed still holding $1 trillion MBS by the end of 2020. Such a gradual pace suggests that Fed portfolio rundown is unlikely to create a surge in the net supply of agency MBS for private investors to absorb after the end of QE.

emphasis added

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Increase in royalties render Indian mineral prices among least competitive globally

India is a significant producer of raw materials including barite (barytes), chromite and limestone, but higher resource taxes have pushed the price of these minerals well above global averages for both export and domestic markets.



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Chinese barite price dips as Indian ore availability dries up

Tender delay continues in India but end to US peak oil drilling season keeps lid on prices



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Dunelm Says First-Quarter Comparable Sales Rise 9 Percent

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