Antimony ingot prices fall further on downturn in trioxide market

Declines follow last week’s drop of $200/tonne for flame retardant chemical



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Black Knight (formerly LPS): House Price Index up 0.2% in July, Up 5.1% year-over-year

Note: I follow several house price indexes (Case-Shiller, CoreLogic, Black Knight, Zillow, FHFA, FNC and more). The timing of different house prices indexes can be a little confusing. Black Knight uses the current month closings only (not a three month average like Case-Shiller or a weighted average like CoreLogic), excludes short sales and REOs, and is not seasonally adjusted.



From Black Knight: U.S. Home Prices Up 0.2 Percent for the Month; Up 5.1 Percent Year-Over-Year

Today, the Data and Analytics division of Black Knight Financial Services released its latest Home Price Index (HPI) report, based on July 2014 residential real estate transactions. The Black Knight HPI combines the company’s extensive property and loan-level databases to produce a repeat sales analysis of home prices as of their transaction dates every month for each of more than 18,500 U.S. ZIP codes. The Black Knight HPI represents the price of non-distressed sales by taking into account price discounts for REO and short sales.

...

- U.S. home prices now just 10.2 percent off 2006 peak

- Year-over-year increases in home appreciation continue to slow

- Seven of 20 largest states register monthly declines in home prices

The year-over-year increases have been getting steadily smaller for the last 10 months - as shown in the table below:

Month	YoY House Price Increase
Jan-13	6.7%
Feb-13	7.3%
Mar-13	7.6%
Apr-13	8.1%
May-13	7.9%
Jun-13	8.4%
Jul-13	8.7%
Aug-13	9.0%
Sep-13	9.0%
Oct-13	8.8%
Nov-13	8.5%
Dec-13	8.4%
Jan-14	8.0%
Feb-14	7.6%
Mar-14	7.0%
Apr-14	6.4%
May-14	5.9%
June-14	5.5%
July-14	5.1%

The Black Knight HPI is off 10.2% from the peak in June 2006 (not adjusted for inflation).



The press release has data for the 20 largest states, and 40 MSAs.



Black Knight shows prices off 41.7% from the peak in Las Vegas, off 34.6% in Orlando, and 31.8% off from the peak in Riverside-San Bernardino, CA (Inland Empire). Prices are at new highs in Colorado and Texas (Denver, Austin, Dallas, Houston and San Antonio metros). Prices are also at new highs in San Jose, CA and in Nashville, TN.



Note: Case-Shiller for July will be released tomorrow.



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Chinese magnesia prices rise as government clings to quota system

Busy purchasing period coupled with an increase in the export licence fee pushes up costs



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Benefits of Joining the Herd

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Price Briefing 19 – 25 September

Antimony prices fall sharply while barite is tipped to increase and TiO2 looks weak



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Focus Procurement Through A Business Lens, PepsiCo CPO Urges

Procurement Leaders Boston Forum is underway and PepsiCo’s CPO Grace Puma described how the focus of her procurement team has changed to a global view.

“The soft measure of your success is whether you’re invited to sit at the table with those business leaders you serve.”

With that message, Todd Podell, SVP and CPO of corrugated and consumer packaging firm Rock-Tenn, opened Procurement LeadersBoston Forum 23 September.

Chairman of the event, Podell said that procurement is perfectly positioned to be a strategic partner but, referring to a recent report from Deloitte, he added that the function needs a more holistic view of the business.

And the first keynote of the forum, entitled Driving Remarkable Enterprise Value Through Sustained Procurement Capability and Talent Management, zeroed in on how to gain that view.

Grace Puma, SVP and CPO, and Miriam Ort, senior director of global human resources, both of PepsiCo, said that focusing through a business lens has proven to be the key to influence and a seat at the table at their company.

To ensure that the team looked through that lens, Puma said that as procurement at the company moved from a decentralized model to a global model they realized that they need a staff with new skills.

“We needed a global mindset, an ability to master a matrix organization, and the ability for transformational leadership,” said Puma. “The macro-environment is complex, and the team must have the right intellect.”

Puma emphasized that no model is right for everyone. “What’s important is the thought process that goes into developing the model,” she said.

PepsiCo’s model involved putting the procurement leaders into the various businesses. “Category expertise is important,” said Ort, “but it must be tied to the business.”

To develop the right talent for its transformation, PepsiCo developed a global procurement university. It consists of a tailored curriculum and procurement professionals take courses tailored to their experience. Among the skills the courses help develop are functional excellence, leadership, effective business interfacing, and supply chain operational functions.

The company also spends a great deal of time on leadership coaching. “Everyone helps grow the talent,” Puma said. And, added Ort, when your leaders coach, that activity trickles down.

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Price increases for diatomite and perlite announced by EP Minerals

EP minerals to increase prices of diatomaceous earth and perlite by 4-9% owing to “inflationary pressures”.



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Indian demand to drive phosphate prices as Middle East producers manage output

Sustained fertiliser subsidies and recovery in the global economy are expected to support phosphate consumption until at least 2017, analysis by Societe Generale shows.



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What is the source of your stress and who to seek out for advice on dealing with it by Roz Usheroff

piblogger:

Editor’s Note: Like love and marriage, stress and procurement do seem to go hand in hand at times.

For this reason I thought it would be worthwhile to share with you the following post from Roz Usheroff’s Remarkable Leader blog.

Originally posted on The Remarkable Leader:

According to The National Institute for Occupational Safety and Health (NIOSH), 80% of workers feel stress on the job, with nearly half indicating that they need help in learning how to manage stress.

For some, that management comes in the form of changing jobs. In fact 42% of employees change jobs due to stress. While this may seem like a solution, is changing jobs really the answer?

“Career choice is always a search for the self, and for work more fitting to that self” – Richard Bolles, author What Color Is Your Parachute?

Over the years I have counseled many people who, after making the change to a new job in the hopes of relieving stress and finding greater fulfillment, actually found themselves feeling greater stress than they did in their previous position.

Given that a change in work life such as dismissal or retirement, are ranked as being two…

View original 1,316 more words

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Tesco Says It Overstated Expected Profit

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Clouds gather for minsands as energy minerals renege on premature optimism

Potash prices strong to 2017, says SocGen; lithium and graphite’s Tesla boost flattened



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TiO2 prices dip as buyers refuse offers

Pigment price hikes rejected as demand wanes; Japan raises prices for premium grades



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Barite prices expected to rise as Indian tender rumoured to be imminent

US importers report Asian prices may already be edging up for oilfield mineral



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House Price Index Guidance - Trends in the UK housing market 2014

This article brings together published official statistics on the United Kingdom housing market to provide analysis and commentary regarding recent trends.



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Afghanistan's Presidential Rivals Sign Power-Sharing Deal

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Antimony prices drop $200/tonne on weak demand

Construction and manufacturing slowdown hits flame retardants and alloys in China



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Price Briefing 12 – 18 September

Iodine prices fall further; zircon predicted to stabilise by year-end



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FOMC Statement: More Tapering, "Considerable Time" before rate increase

A little more concerned about low inflation ...



FOMC Statement:

Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in July suggests that economic activity is expanding at a moderate pace. On balance, labor market conditions improved somewhat further; however, the unemployment rate is little changed and a range of labor market indicators suggests that there remains significant underutilization of labor resources. Household spending appears to be rising moderately and business fixed investment is advancing, while the recovery in the housing sector remains slow. Fiscal policy is restraining economic growth, although the extent of restraint is diminishing. Inflation has been running below the Committee's longer-run objective. Longer-term inflation expectations have remained stable.



Consistent with its statutory mandate, the Committee seeks to foster maximum employment and price stability. The Committee expects that, with appropriate policy accommodation, economic activity will expand at a moderate pace, with labor market indicators and inflation moving toward levels the Committee judges consistent with its dual mandate. The Committee sees the risks to the outlook for economic activity and the labor market as nearly balanced and judges that the likelihood of inflation running persistently below 2 percent has diminished somewhat since early this year.



The Committee currently judges that there is sufficient underlying strength in the broader economy to support ongoing improvement in labor market conditions. In light of the cumulative progress toward maximum employment and the improvement in the outlook for labor market conditions since the inception of the current asset purchase program, the Committee decided to make a further measured reduction in the pace of its asset purchases. Beginning in October, the Committee will add to its holdings of agency mortgage-backed securities at a pace of $5 billion per month rather than $10 billion per month, and will add to its holdings of longer-term Treasury securities at a pace of $10 billion per month rather than $15 billion per month. The Committee is maintaining its existing policy of reinvesting principal payments from its holdings of agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities in agency mortgage-backed securities and of rolling over maturing Treasury securities at auction. The Committee's sizable and still-increasing holdings of longer-term securities should maintain downward pressure on longer-term interest rates, support mortgage markets, and help to make broader financial conditions more accommodative, which in turn should promote a stronger economic recovery and help to ensure that inflation, over time, is at the rate most consistent with the Committee's dual mandate.



The Committee will closely monitor incoming information on economic and financial developments in coming months and will continue its purchases of Treasury and agency mortgage-backed securities, and employ its other policy tools as appropriate, until the outlook for the labor market has improved substantially in a context of price stability. If incoming information broadly supports the Committee's expectation of ongoing improvement in labor market conditions and inflation moving back toward its longer-run objective, the Committee will end its current program of asset purchases at its next meeting. However, asset purchases are not on a preset course, and the Committee's decisions about their pace will remain contingent on the Committee's outlook for the labor market and inflation as well as its assessment of the likely efficacy and costs of such purchases.



To support continued progress toward maximum employment and price stability, the Committee today reaffirmed its view that a highly accommodative stance of monetary policy remains appropriate. In determining how long to maintain the current 0 to 1/4 percent target range for the federal funds rate, the Committee will assess progress--both realized and expected--toward its objectives of maximum employment and 2 percent inflation. This assessment will take into account a wide range of information, including measures of labor market conditions, indicators of inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and readings on financial developments. The Committee continues to anticipate, based on its assessment of these factors, that it likely will be appropriate to maintain the current target range for the federal funds rate for a considerable time after the asset purchase program ends, especially if projected inflation continues to run below the Committee's 2 percent longer-run goal, and provided that longer-term inflation expectations remain well anchored.



When the Committee decides to begin to remove policy accommodation, it will take a balanced approach consistent with its longer-run goals of maximum employment and inflation of 2 percent. The Committee currently anticipates that, even after employment and inflation are near mandate-consistent levels, economic conditions may, for some time, warrant keeping the target federal funds rate below levels the Committee views as normal in the longer run.



Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were: Janet L. Yellen, Chair; William C. Dudley, Vice Chairman; Lael Brainard; Stanley Fischer; Narayana Kocherlakota; Loretta J. Mester; Jerome H. Powell; and Daniel K. Tarullo. Voting against the action were Richard W. Fisher and Charles I. Plosser. President Fisher believed that the continued strengthening of the real economy, improved outlook for labor utilization and for general price stability, and continued signs of financial market excess, will likely warrant an earlier reduction in monetary accommodation than is suggested by the Committee's stated forward guidance. President Plosser objected to the guidance indicating that it likely will be appropriate to maintain the current target range for the federal funds rate for "a considerable time after the asset purchase program ends," because such language is time dependent and does not reflect the considerable economic progress that has been made toward the Committee's goals.

emphasis added

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Wednesday: FOMC Statement and Press Conference, CPI, Home Builder Confidence

More previews on the FOMC statement and press conference:



From Jon Hilsenrath at the WSJ: How the Federal Reserve Could Tweak ‘Considerable Time’

"Given the economic backdrop, they don’t want to send a signal right now that rate increases are imminent,” Hilsenrath said. “I think what they do, at the end of the day, is they qualify it.” ... One of the headlines they’re going to come out with I expect to be formalizing some of their exit plan,” Hilsenrath said. “It becomes, in their mind, a lot for the market to digest if they announce their exit strategy and change their guidance at the same time."

From Robin Harding at the Financial Times: Money Supply: A “considerable” challenge

The bottom line is that “considerable time” may survive in some form on Wednesday, but if so, I’ll be surprised if there is not a significant change to the statement that sets up its eventual departure.

excerpt with permission

Wednesday:

• At 7:00 AM ET, the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index.



• At 8:30 AM, the Consumer Price Index for August. The consensus is for no change in CPI in August and for core CPI to increase 0.2%.



• At 10:00 AM, the September NAHB homebuilder survey. The consensus is for a reading of 56, up from 55 in August. Any number above 50 indicates that more builders view sales conditions as good than poor.



• At 2:00 PM, the FOMC Statement. The FOMC is expected to reduce monthly QE3 asset purchases from $25 billion per month to $15 billion per month at this meeting.



• Also at 2:00 PM, the FOMC projections will be released. This will include the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) participants' projections of the appropriate target federal funds rate along with the quarterly economic projections.



• At 2:30 PM, Fed Chair Janet Yellen holds a press briefing following the FOMC announcement.



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BLS: Producer Price Index unchanged in August

From the BLS:

The Producer Price Index for final demand was unchanged in August, seasonally adjusted, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Final demand prices advanced 0.1 percent in July and 0.4 percent in June. On an unadjusted basis, the index for final demand increased 1.8 percent for the 12 months ended in August.

...

The index for final demand goods moved down 0.3 percent in August, the largest decrease since a 0.7-percent drop in April 2013. Over 80 percent of the August decline is attributable to prices for final demand energy, which fell 1.5 percent. The index for final demand foods decreased 0.5 percent. Prices for final demand goods less foods and energy were unchanged.

emphasis added

This was slightly lower than expectations, and was mostly due to a decline in energy products. However this is another indicator a low level of inflation.



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Vanadium pentoxide prices slide through 2014

Strong demand for ferro-vanadium diverges from weak conditions in V2O5 market



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House Price Index, July 2014

Mix-adjusted average house prices and house price indices for the UK and its component countries and regions.



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House Price Index - July 2014

A monthly House Price Index (HPI) based on mortgage completions data from the Regulated Mortgage Survey (RMS).



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House Price Index, July 2014: Annual Tables 20 to 39

UK housing market analysis including house price inflation and distribution of mortgage advances. This House Price Index reference table contains 20 tables relating to the ONS House Price Index.



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Air France Strike Amid Europe's Low-Cost Shakeup

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Low end of iodine price range drops further

Bottom values sag following slips at top end of price range the previous week



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Gemfields Forms Joint Venture to Hunt for Sapphires in Sri Lanka

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Exclusive: Nissan Faces Battery Plant Cuts as Electric Car Hopes Fade

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Exclusive: Nissan Faces Battery Plant Cuts as Electric Car Hopes Fade

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Goldman Sachs Revises Q2 GDP estimate to 4.7%

From Brett LoGiurato at Business Insider: Goldman Is Now Saying That Q2 GDP Growth Was Absolutely Massive

Goldman Sachs revised its estimate of second-quarter GDP growth to 4.7% on Thursday, based on new data from the Census Bureau's Quarterly Services Survey (QSS).



Stronger-than-expected healthcare spending growth led to the revised Goldman estimate of 4.7%, which was up 0.5% from the Bureau of Economic Analysis' second advance-estimate of 4.2%.

Here is the Q2 Quarterly Services Press Release

Health care and social assistance The estimate of U.S. health care and social assistance revenue for the second quarter of 2014, not adjusted for seasonal variation, or price changes, was $565.6 billion, an increase of 3.0 percent (± 0.9%) from the first quarter of 2014 and up 3.7 percent (± 0.9%) from the second quarter of 2013. The fourth quarter of 2013 to first quarter of 2014 percent change was not revised from -2.0 percent (± 0.8%).

The third estimate of Q2 GDP will be released on Friday, September 26th. Some of the Q2 GDP increase was a bounce back from the weather impacted Q1.



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Price Briefing 5 – 11 September

Ilmenite and iodine both on slippery slope; flake graphite sits at four-year lows



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Iodine prices weaken as China fails to lift market

Summer hiatus in price decline comes to an end as market resumes downward trend



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Homeware Retailer Dunelm's Full-Year Profit Rises 7 Percent; CEO Resigns

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Trulia: Asking House Prices up 7.8% year-over-year in August

From Trulia chief economist Jed Kolko: Slow and Steady Now Winning the Home-Price Race

Nationally, the month-over-month increase in asking home prices rose to 1.0% in August, up a bit from 0.7% in July. Asking prices rose 7.8% year-over-year, slower than one year ago, in August 2013, when asking prices were up 9.9% year-over-year. At the local level, asking prices rose year-over-year in 96 of the 100 largest U.S. metros.

...

Foreclosures have shaped where and when home prices have recovered. Foreclosed homes tend to depress neighboring home values and sell at a discount. But once most of the foreclosures in a market are sold, then overall inventory tightens – especially at the low end – giving home prices a boost. In states with a “non-judicial” foreclosure process (such as California, Michigan, and Texas), foreclosures don’t have to go through the courts. That means homes in non-judicial states are foreclosed and sold more quickly than in states with a “judicial” process (such as Florida, Illinois, and New York). As a result, the foreclosure wave cleared sooner and faster in non-judicial states, and housing markets in those states got an earlier and sharper price boost.



But now, even judicial states are seeing the light at the end of the foreclosure tunnel and are getting their own price boost. In August 2014, asking prices on for-sale homes excluding foreclosures were up 6.9% year-over-year in metros in judicial states, only slightly behind the 7.8% increase in metros in non-judicial states. In contrast, in August 2013, the year-over-year price gain was 14.1% in non-judicial states and just 5.1% in judicial states.

...

Rents Accelerate, Rising 6.3% Year-over-Year

In five of the 25 largest rental markets, rents rose more than 10% year-over-year. Three of these five are in northern California: Sacramento, San Francisco, and Oakland have the highest rent increases in the country, followed by Denver and Miami. Rents rose faster year-over-year in August than three months ago, in May, in 20 of the 25 largest rental markets. In August compared to May, rents accelerated most in Sacramento while cooling in San Diego.

emphasis added

Note: These asking prices are SA (Seasonally Adjusted) - and adjusted for the mix of homes - and this suggests further house price increases over the next few months on a seasonally adjusted basis.



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Traders see no reason why ilmenite prices will not keep falling

No end in sight for market weakness; supply chain mismanagement blamed



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Tuesday: Job Openings, Small Business Survey

From Nick Timiraos at the WSJ: Why More Renters Aren’t Buying (Hint: Weak Incomes, Savings)

A new survey says that younger workers and other renters aren’t turning away from homeownership because they lack the desire to own homes. Instead, they’re staying on the sidelines because they lack the capacity to purchase.



The analysis from the New York Federal Reserve Bank comes via their survey of consumer expectations in February. It polled 867 homeowners and 344 renters on their attitudes toward homeownership and their plans to move.



One popular trend cited frequently in the press is that millennials and other renters have permanently turned away from owning homes after watching their parents’ generation take it on the chin during the housing bust. ...



But the New York Fed researchers say their survey points to a different conclusion: borrowers want to buy, but they can’t cut it financially. Conservative mortgage lending standards are only likely to exacerbate this problem.

My view is people will want to own ... and as their incomes eventually increase, they will become homeowners. No worries.



Tuesday:

• At 7:30 AM ET, the NFIB Small Business Optimism Index for August.



• Early, the Trulia Price Rent Monitors for August. This is the index from Trulia that uses asking house prices adjusted both for the mix of homes listed for sale and for seasonal factors.



• At 10:00 AM, Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey for July from the BLS. Jobs openings increased in June to 4.671 million from 4.577 million in May. That was the highest level since February 2001. The number of job openings were up 18% year-over-year compared to June 2013. Quits were up 15% year-over-year in June.



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Celamin Holdings improves beneficiation procedure

New flotation experiments could improve the efficiency of phosphate extraction at Celamin Holding’s Tunisian Chaketma project, preparing the company as it heads towards production and commercialisation



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Absent or Close, the Hearts Grow Fonder

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Friday: Jobs, Jobs, Jobs

Friday:

• At 8:30 AM, the Employment Report for August. The consensus is for an increase of 230,000 non-farm payroll jobs added in August, up from the 209,000 non-farm payroll jobs added in July. The consensus is for the unemployment rate to decrease to 6.1% in August. As always, a key will be the change in real wages - and as the unemployment rate falls, wage growth should eventually start to pickup.



From Nick Timiraos at the WSJ: Things to Watch in Friday’s Jobs Report

Any pickup in wages would provide a concrete sign of firming in the labor market, since few measures reflect the health of the job market like the price of labor. Average hourly wages rose just 1 cent in July to $24.45, an increase of 2% from a year earlier and the 60th straight month that year-on-year hourly wage growth has stayed below 2.5%. Before the recession, growth routinely exceeded 3%.



Also keep an eye on a change in the work week, which rose 0.3% in July from June, the first increase since April. Average weekly earnings, at $843.53, rose 2.3% from a year earlier in July.

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8 Portland, Ore., Meals for $8 or Under

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Lawler on Toll Brothers: Net Home Orders Down, Price Gains Slow; Some “Lessening” in Pricing Power

From housing economist Tom Lawler: Toll Brothers: Net Home Orders Down, Price Gains on Orders Slows; Some “Lessening” in Pricing Power but No “Need” to Increase Incentives Much -- Yet



Toll Brothers, the self-described “nation’s leading builder of luxury homes,” reported that net home orders in the quarter ended July 31, 2014 totaled 1,324, down 5.8% from the comparable quarter of 2013. Net orders per community last quarter were down 15.9% from the comparable quarter of 2013. The company average net order price last quarter was $717,000, up 1.4% from a year ago. Toll’s sales cancellation rate, expressed as a % of gross orders, was 6.6% last quarter, up from 4.6% in the comparable quarter of 2013. Home deliveries last quarter totaled 1,364, up 36.8% from the comparable quarter of 2013, at an average sales price of $732,000, up 12.4% from a year ago. The company’s order backlog at the end of July was 4,204, up 5.1% from last July, at an average order price of $737,300, up 4.1% from a year ago. The company controlled 49,037 home sites at the end of July, up 3.9% from last July and up 25.1% from two years ago.



For its “traditional” home building business (i.e., ex city living), net home orders totaled 1,281 last quarter, down 5.0% from the comparable quarter of 2014, at an average net order price of $700,500, up 3.4% from a year ago.



Here are a few excerpts from the company’s press release.



Douglas C. Yearley, Toll Brothers' chief executive officer:

"Although we have seen some lessening of pricing power in the past year, we have not felt the need to incentivize to spur home sales. Because we generally do not build 'spec' homes, we are not under pressure to move standing inventory. We are driven by bottom-line growth and are pleased with our continued margin expansion through what we still believe is a recovering, albeit bumpy, housing cycle. We have been particularly pleased with our performance in a number of the markets we have targeted for growth, especially Coastal California, Texas, and the urban New York City area.



"With pent-up demand still yet to be unleashed, we are growing community count in attractive locations.”

Robert I. Toll, executive chairman

"The national housing data has been somewhat volatile in recent months. Without real urgency pushing buyers to make a decision, general industry demand continues to be impacted by uncertainty about the economy and world events, improving but fragile consumer confidence and reduced affordability due to rising prices and limited personal income growth. One data point we do have confidence in is the low level of production compared to historic norms. Population grew during the recession and has continued to increase since then. Based on trends over more than forty years, the industry should be building 50% more homes this year than its current pace to meet the increased population demographics.”

As with many other builders, last year Toll raised prices aggressively based on stronger-than-expected demand as well as longer-than-expected development timelines that limited supply. Toll and many other builders are now increasing active communities at a double-digit pace, but are having trouble generating double-digit sales growth because prices were increased at too rapid a pace last year.



Toll’s net orders were significantly below consensus.



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