Friday, 31 January 2014

Today in Small Business: the Most Promising Companies



By GENE MARKS from NYT Business Day http://nyti.ms/MFqncy

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Thursday, 30 January 2014

Friday: Personal Income, Chicago PMI, Consumer Sentiment,

Jed Kolko, writing at Economix, explains why the "headship rate" is more important than the homeownership rate: Why the Homeownership Rate Is Misleading

At this stage of the housing recovery, the falling homeownership rate turns out to be misleading. In fact, for young adults, who were hit especially hard in the recession and housing crisis, the decline in their homeownership rate might paradoxically be a sign of improvement.

...

When the homeownership rate steers us wrong, the “headship rate” ... can come to the rescue. It’s the percent of adults who head a household. Put another way, it is the ratio of households to adults. If there are 200 million adults living in 100 million households, the headship rate is 50 percent. A higher headship rate means fewer adults, on average, per household. Over the longer term, demographics explain shifts in the headship rate (and in labor force participation, for that matter). An aging population, for instance, typically increases the headship rate because older adults are more likely to head their household than younger adults are because many young adults live in their parents’ home or with housemates.

...

In fact, the headship rate is the key to how much the housing recovery contributes to economic growth. The headship rate and the population determine the total number of households, so a rise in the headship rate means more new households, all else equal.

...

Headship is poised to increase. Young adults still living with their parents won’t do so forever, and the Current Population Survey headship rate in 2013 – even with its recent rise — is still below its 20-year average. That will prompt more new construction.

Friday:

• At 8:30 AM ET, the Personal Income and Outlays for December. The consensus is for a 0.2% increase in personal income, and for a 0.2% increase in personal spending. And for the Core PCE price index to increase 0.1%.



• At 9:45 AM, the Chicago Purchasing Managers Index for January. The consensus is for an increase to 59.5, up from 59.1 in December.



• At 9:55 AM, the Reuter's/University of Michigan's Consumer sentiment index (final for January). The consensus is for a reading of 81.0, up from the preliminary reading of 80.4, and down from the December reading of 82.5.



• At 10:00 AM ET, Q4 Housing Vacancies and Homeownership report from the Census Bureau. This report is frequently mentioned by analysts and the media to report on the homeownership rate, and the homeowner and rental vacancy rates. However, this report doesn't track with other measures (like the decennial Census and the ACS).



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Lawler on Homebuilders: Weak Net Orders, "Considerable optimism about the prospects for home sales in 2014"

From economist Tom Lawler:



Below is a summary table of some stats from large publicly-traded builders who have reported results for last quarter. Note that for the six builders in the table, “home sales” based on net orders in 2013 were up 5.7% from 2012, while “home sales” defined as closed sales were up 20.1% on the year.



The combination of higher mortgage rates and unusually aggressive home price increases in many parts of the country led to a substantial dip in new home contract signings in the second half of last year.



Most builders expressed considerable optimism about the prospects for home sales in 2014, and are planning accordingly, and most increased significantly their land/lot positions over the last year or two. Most builders also reported gross margins in the last quarter of 2013 that were at or near seven year highs. The combination of elevated land/lot positions and elevated margins suggests that any slower-than-expected pace of home sales would likely lead to little or no home price growth in 2014.



Builder results reported so far suggest that Census’ new home sales estimates for the fourth quarter of 2013 are likely to be revised downward.



M/I Homes reported that net home orders in the quarter ended December 31, 2013 totaled 793, up 17.8% from the comparable quarter of 2012. M/I’s average community county last quarter was up 16.9% from a year earlier. The company’s sales cancellation rate, expressed as a % of gross orders, was 19% last quarter, down from 21% a year ago. Home deliveries totaled 1,120 last quarter, up 26.3% from the comparable quarter of 2012, at an average sales price of $292,000, up $273,000 from a year ago. The company’s order backlog at the end of 2013 was 1,280, up 32.6% from the end of 2012.



M/I Homes has moved aggressively to increase market share over the last year, by increasing its “geographic footprint” and substantially increasing its land/lot holdings. At the end of 2012 the company owned or controlled 19,831 lots, up 39.6% from the end of 2012 and up 91.5% from the end of 2011.



PulteGroup reported that net home orders in the quarter ended December 31, 2013 totaled 3,214, down 18.1% from the comparable quarter of 2012. Home deliveries last quarter totaled 4,964, down 3.7% from the comparable quarter of 2012, at an average sales price of $325,000, up 13.2% from a year ago. The company’s order backlog at the end of 2013 was 5,772, down 10.6% from the end of 2012.



Pulte has been “de-leveraging” and focusing on “value creation” and cost control, meaning that the company has focused on profitability at the expense of market share (and has virtually eliminated its “spec” business). Pulte said that last quarter’s gross margin was its highest since 2005. On its conference call an official said that net orders were “flat” in December relative to November (orders normally fall MOM in December), and said that the company “liked what we’ve seen” so far in January. Pulte noted that it planned to increase its “land spend” in 2014.



On the home price front, Pulte noted that the YOY increase in average home prices was 6% for its Centex division, which focuses on first-time buyers, 13% for its Pulte division, which focuses on move-up buyers, and 11% for its Del Webb division, which focuses on the “active adult” market.



The Ryland Group reported that net home orders (including discontinued operations) in the quarter ended December 31, 2013 totaled 1,428, down 4.9% from the comparable quarter. The company’s community count at the end of 2013 was up 21,8% from a year earlier. Ryland’s sales cancellation rate, expressed as a % of gross orders, was 20.0% last quarter, up from 17.9% a year ago. Sales per community were down about 19% from a year ago. Home deliveries last quarter totaled 2,178, up 38% from the comparable quarter of 2012, at an average sales price of $314,000, up 16.3% from a year earlier. The company’s order backlog at the end of December was 2,626, up 9.5% from the end of 2012. Ryland owned or controlled 38,770 lots (including jvs) at the end of December, up 35.5% from the end of 2012 and up 76.9% from the end of 2012. Ryland’s orders last quarter were “disappointing” given its sharp increase in community count and appeared to reflect slower buying in response to the company’s aggressive price hikes, particularly in the West and Southeast.



In slides that went along with its earnings conference call, Ryland said it plans to increase its active community count in 2014 “in excess” of 20%.



Beazer Homes reported that net home orders in the quarter ended December 31, 2013 totaled 895, down 4.0% from the comparable quarter of 2012. Beazer’s average community count last quarter was down 8.6% from a year ago. The company’s sales cancellation rate, expressed as a % of gross orders, ws 21.8% last quarter, down 26.4% from a year earlier. Home deliveries last quarter totaled 1,038, unchanged from the comparable quarter of 2012, at an average sales price of $279,500, up 18.6% from a year ago. The company’s order backlog at the end of 2013 was 1,750, down 3.7% from the end of 2012.



Beazer owned or controlled 28,978 lots at the end of 2013, up 15.4% from the end of 2012. Beazer’s “land spend” increased significantly beginning last spring, but the “conversion” to active communities has been slower than hoped for. In slides that went along with its earnings conference call, Beazer said that it expected its average community count in the quarter ending September 30, 2014 to be up by about 16% from the latest quarter.



Meritage Homes, MDC Holdings, and Standard Pacific Corp. are scheduled to release their quarterly results next week (February 5th.)

































































































Net OrdersSettlementsAverage Closing Price
Qtr. Ended:12/1312/12% Chg12/1312/12% Chg12/1312/12% Chg
D.R. Horton5,4545,2593.7%6,1885,18219.4%$263,542$236,06711.6%
PulteGroup3,2143,926-18.1%4,9645,154-3.7%$325,000$287,00013.2%
NVR2,6312,6250.2%3,3422,78819.9%$365,300$331,90010.1%
The Ryland Group1,4281,502-4.9%2,1781,57838.0%$314,000$270,00016.3%
Beazer Homes895932-4.0%1,0381,0380.0%$279,300$235,50018.6%
M/I Homes79367317.8%1,12088726.3%$292,000$273,0007.0%
















































































































Net OrdersSettlementsAverage Closing Price
Calendar Year'13'12% Chg'13'12% Chg'13'12% Chg
D.R. Horton25,31522,51312.4%25,16119,95426.1%$255,646$228,39511.9%
PulteGroup17,08019,039-10.3%17,76616,5057.6%$305,000$276,00010.5%
NVR11,80010,9547.7%11,8349,84320.2%$349,043$317,07310.1%
The Ryland Group7,2635,78125.6%7,0354,89743.7%$296,000$262,00013.0%
Beazer Homes4,9895,111-2.4%5,0564,6039.8%$262,004$229,12614.3%
M/I Homes3,7873,02025.4%3,4722,76525.6%$286,000$264,0008.3%
Total70,23466,4185.7%70,32458,56720.1%$289,824$261,26310.9%






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Price Briefing 24 – 30 January

Mineral markets offer glimpse of trends for year ahead



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Middle East sulphur prices wobble after upturn

Volatility expected to continue on mismatched supply-demand balance



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Wednesday, 29 January 2014

FOMC Statement: More Taper

FOMC Statement:

Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in December indicates that growth in economic activity picked up in recent quarters. Labor market indicators were mixed but on balance showed further improvement. The unemployment rate declined but remains elevated. Household spending and business fixed investment advanced more quickly in recent months, while the recovery in the housing sector slowed somewhat. Fiscal policy is restraining economic growth, although the extent of restraint is diminishing. Inflation has been running below the Committee's longer-run objective, but longer-term inflation expectations have remained stable.



Consistent with its statutory mandate, the Committee seeks to foster maximum employment and price stability. The Committee expects that, with appropriate policy accommodation, economic activity will expand at a moderate pace and the unemployment rate will gradually decline toward levels the Committee judges consistent with its dual mandate. The Committee sees the risks to the outlook for the economy and the labor market as having become more nearly balanced. The Committee recognizes that inflation persistently below its 2 percent objective could pose risks to economic performance, and it is monitoring inflation developments carefully for evidence that inflation will move back toward its objective over the medium term.



Taking into account the extent of federal fiscal retrenchment since the inception of its current asset purchase program, the Committee continues to see the improvement in economic activity and labor market conditions over that period as consistent with growing underlying strength in the broader economy. In light of the cumulative progress toward maximum employment and the improvement in the outlook for labor market conditions, the Committee decided to make a further measured reduction in the pace of its asset purchases. Beginning in February, the Committee will add to its holdings of agency mortgage-backed securities at a pace of $30 billion per month rather than $35 billion per month, and will add to its holdings of longer-term Treasury securities at a pace of $35 billion per month rather than $40 billion per month. The Committee is maintaining its existing policy of reinvesting principal payments from its holdings of agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities in agency mortgage-backed securities and of rolling over maturing Treasury securities at auction. The Committee's sizable and still-increasing holdings of longer-term securities should maintain downward pressure on longer-term interest rates, support mortgage markets, and help to make broader financial conditions more accommodative, which in turn should promote a stronger economic recovery and help to ensure that inflation, over time, is at the rate most consistent with the Committee's dual mandate.



The Committee will closely monitor incoming information on economic and financial developments in coming months and will continue its purchases of Treasury and agency mortgage-backed securities, and employ its other policy tools as appropriate, until the outlook for the labor market has improved substantially in a context of price stability. If incoming information broadly supports the Committee's expectation of ongoing improvement in labor market conditions and inflation moving back toward its longer-run objective, the Committee will likely reduce the pace of asset purchases in further measured steps at future meetings. However, asset purchases are not on a preset course, and the Committee's decisions about their pace will remain contingent on the Committee's outlook for the labor market and inflation as well as its assessment of the likely efficacy and costs of such purchases.



To support continued progress toward maximum employment and price stability, the Committee today reaffirmed its view that a highly accommodative stance of monetary policy will remain appropriate for a considerable time after the asset purchase program ends and the economic recovery strengthens. The Committee also reaffirmed its expectation that the current exceptionally low target range for the federal funds rate of 0 to 1/4 percent will be appropriate at least as long as the unemployment rate remains above 6-1/2 percent, inflation between one and two years ahead is projected to be no more than a half percentage point above the Committee's 2 percent longer-run goal, and longer-term inflation expectations continue to be well anchored. In determining how long to maintain a highly accommodative stance of monetary policy, the Committee will also consider other information, including additional measures of labor market conditions, indicators of inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and readings on financial developments. The Committee continues to anticipate, based on its assessment of these factors, that it likely will be appropriate to maintain the current target range for the federal funds rate well past the time that the unemployment rate declines below 6-1/2 percent, especially if projected inflation continues to run below the Committee's 2 percent longer-run goal. When the Committee decides to begin to remove policy accommodation, it will take a balanced approach consistent with its longer-run goals of maximum employment and inflation of 2 percent.



Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were: Ben S. Bernanke, Chairman; William C. Dudley, Vice Chairman; Richard W. Fisher; Narayana Kocherlakota; Sandra Pianalto; Charles I. Plosser; Jerome H. Powell; Jeremy C. Stein; Daniel K. Tarullo; and Janet L. Yellen.

emphasis added





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Chobani Loses 'Greek Yogurt' Legal Battle in UK



By THE ASSOCIATED PRESS from NYT World http://nyti.ms/1byvpgb

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Flat year ahead for bromine prices, says Albemarle

Weak demand for flame retardants to be offset by new applications, according to report



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10 Influencers in Logistics and Supply Chain


Reblogged from Thanh and Social Media:





10 social media influencers in Supply Chain industry that newbies like me should know (Inspired by StrategicSourcing.com)



  1. FoodLogistics in NY @FoodLogistics (about 4,891 followers) provides articles in food supply chain industry.

  2. Inbound Logistics in NY @ILMagazine (about 18.9k followers) focuses on demand and supply in logistics industry and suggest solutions to operations

  3. Supply & Demand Chain Executive @SDCExec (about 4,001 followers) provides solution and information on global supply chain…



Read more… 196 more words





Editor's Note: It is always nice to know that your writing has an impact. With more than 20K subscribers/followers it is hard to believe how far we have come since launching the Procurement Insights blog in May 2007.






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Brussels gets real with emissions targets


By taking an EU-wide approach and setting achievable targets, the European Commission is hoping energy buyers will be able to achieve environmental targets without compromising competitiveness




This January, the EU Commission released its targets for energy use, looking forward to 2030. After seven years of dawdling and watching Europe fall further and further behind global counterparts on the competitive stage, decision makers admirably admitted the failings of government green energy subsidies.


For many, these subsidies, which were bound up with over-ambitious targets for emissions and renewables in the energy mix, have been a negative influence on the EU’s current position in the global marketplace.


Energy buyers will welcome the scrapping of the previous ’hard and fast approach’. While targets remain ambitious – 40% and 27% for carbon emissions reduction and use of renewables in the mix respectively – the key difference lies in the EU-wide fulfilment of these objectives, rather than nationally-bound goals.


Finally, it seems, conscious of how embarrassingly far Europe now lags behind competitors in the US, China and Russia (among others) the floor has been opened up to shale exploration, with no official barriers standing in the way of some of Europe’s less-developed economies looking to reduce their reliance on coal and other dirty energy.


The benefits (and, admittedly, the drawbacks) of shale gas exploration are now well-known – consider the energy price gap between Europe and the US; in 2011, buyers of energy in the former would have been handed bills as much as four-times higher than their counterparts across the pond; staggering price hikes have placed Europe at a distinct disadvantage for some time now, making somewhat of a mockery of legitimate exercises such as usage profiling and country-level contract management.


Giving regional procurement practitioners more freedom to explore and decide how they will contribute to the new energy and climate targets – as well as affording considerably more competitive momentum to European industry more generally – will likely prove the biggest win, opening up the floor to forward-thinking functions seeking to add value to the wider business through innovative sourcing programmes, while affording an amount of slack to the industries blighted by stagnation (many of which energy-intensive) via a renewed focus on what can be considered realistic goals.







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Tuesday, 28 January 2014

Text of Obama's State of the Union Address



By REUTERS from NYT U.S. http://nyti.ms/1e5KdZE

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Improving soda ash market continues to buoy prices

Increased demand in Asia boosts Chinese capacity but risks rolling back tonnage values



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Canpotex inks 700,000 tonne potash supply deal with Sinofert

Contract value undisclosed but trader says prices set at current market levels



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Lawler: D.R. Horton sales up slightly year-over-year

From housing economist Tom Lawler:



D.R. Horton, the largest US home builder, reported that net home orders in the quarter ended December 31, 2013 totaled 5,454, up 3.7% from the comparable quarter of 2012, and up “contra-seasonal” 5.7% from the previous quarter’s weak level. The average net order price last quarter was $275,600, up 10.3% from a year ago. The company’s sales cancellation rate, expressed as a % of gross orders, was 23% last quarter, up slightly from 22% a year ago. Home deliveries totaled 6,188 last quarter, up 19.4% from the comparable quarter of 2012, at an average home sales price of $263,542 up 11.6% from a year ago. The company’s order backlog at the end of last year was 7,684, up 5.0% from the end of 2012, at an average order price of $275,052, up 14.4% from a year earlier. The company said that its average community count last quarter was up 13% from the comparable quarter of 2012.



Horton noted in its press release that its weekly sales pace “accelerated” in January. In its press conference, officials noted that the strong home price gains last year reflected both increased pricing power in most of its markets and a higher mix of larger homes and sales to “move-up” buyers. Officials said that of the purchase mortgages closed by Horton’s mortgage subsidiary last quarter, 41% were to first-time home buyers, down from 50% in the comparable quarter of 2012 – suggesting that sales to first-time home buyers were weak last quarter.



According to officials, Horton’s gross margin last quarter was at its highest level since 2006. Officials were “very optimistic” about the 2014 “spring” (really winter/spring) selling season, and said that they were “well-positioned” from a community count and “spec inventory” position to take advantage of strong sales. Based on these expectations officials said they expected to “hold” these exceptionally high margins, but officials noted that home price gains in 2014 were likely to be much more modest in 2014. Given Horton’s elevated margins and “strong” spec inventory position, weaker-than-expected sales over the next few months could lead to flat to slightly lower home prices.



In response to a question in the Q&A session, a Horton official noted that home prices in Phoenix, which increased about 25% last year, had begun to “plateau,” and the official expected prices in Phoenix this year to be flat to slightly down.



At the end of December Horton owned or controlled 175,000 lots, down slightly from 177,300 at the end of 2012, but up significantly from 120,600 at the end of 2011.

emphasis added



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Monday, 27 January 2014

Tuesday: Case-Shiller House Prices, Durable Goods, Richmond Fed Mfg Survey and More

Notes: I follow several house price indexes (Case-Shiller, CoreLogic, LPS, Zillow, FHFA, FNC and more). The timing of different house prices indexes can be a little confusing. LPS uses the current month closings only (not a three month average like Case-Shiller or a weighted average like CoreLogic), excludes short sales and REOs, and is not seasonally adjusted.



From Black Knight (formerly LPS): U.S. Home Prices Up 0.3 Percent for the Month; Up 8.5 Percent Year-Over-Year

oday, the Data & Analytics​ division of Black Knight Financial Services (formerly the LPS Data & Analytics​ division) released its latest Home Price Index (HPI) report, based on November 2013 residential real estate transactions. The Black Knight HPI combines the company’s extensive property and loan-level databases to produce a repeat sales analysis of home prices as of their transaction dates every month for each of more than 18,500 U.S. ZIP codes. The Black Knight HPI represents the price of non-distressed sales by taking into account price discounts for REO and short sales.

The year-over-year increase was slightly less in November than in October. The LPS HPI is off 13.9% from the peak in June 2006.



Tuesday:

• At 8:30 AM ET, the Durable Goods Orders report for December from the Census Bureau. The consensus is for a 1.6% increase in durable goods orders.



• At 9:00 AM, the S&P/Case-Shiller House Price Index for November. The consensus is for a 13.7% year-over-year increase in the Composite 20 index (NSA) for August.



• Also at 9:00 AM, the Chemical Activity Barometer (CAB) for January from the American Chemistry Council. This appears to be a leading economic indicator.



• At 10:00 AM, the Conference Board's consumer confidence index for January. The consensus is for the index to increase to 79.0 from 78.1.



• Also at 10:00 AM, Richmond Fed Survey of Manufacturing Activity for January. This is the last of the regional Fed surveys for January. The consensus is a reading of 10, down from 13 in December (above zero is expansion).



• Also at 10:00 AM, Regional and State Employment and Unemployment (Monthly) for December 2013.



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New Home Prices: New Record for Average and Median in 2013

Here are two graphs I haven't for some time ...



As part of the new home sales report, the Census Bureau reported the number of homes sold by price and the average and median prices.



From the Census Bureau: "The median sales price of new houses sold in December 2013 was $270,200; the average sales price was $311,400."



The following graph shows the median and average new home prices.



New Home Prices Click on graph for larger image.



During the bust, the builders had to build smaller and less expensive homes to compete with all the distressed sales. With fewer foreclosures now, it appears the builders have moved to higher price points.



The average price in 2013 was $320,900, above the previous high of $313,600 in 2007. The median price in 2013 was $265,800, above the previous high of $247,900 in 2009.



The second graph shows the percent of new home sales by price. At the peak of the housing bubble, almost 40% of new homes were sold for more than $300K - and over 20% were sold for over $400K.



New Home Sales by Price The percent of home over $300K declined to 20% in January 2009. Now it has rebounded to around 39%. And less than 10% were under $150K in 2013.



Earlier on New Home Sales:

New Home Sales at 414,000 Annual Rate in December

New Home Sales: Weak Finish, Solid Growth in 2013



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Ilmenite prices expected to strengthen after subdued H2 2013

Full year 2014 averages tipped to be softer; new supply could weaken market



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British Phone-Hacking Trial Revelation Shocks Actor Jude Law



By REUTERS from NYT Arts http://nyti.ms/1cl4vN6

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Sunday, 26 January 2014

China Says U.S. Should Stop New Dumping Probe on Solar Products



By REUTERS from NYT Business Day http://nyti.ms/1chpbp9

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Friday, 24 January 2014

TiO2 prices in for a bumpy 2014

Pigment mineral production set to grow faster than consumption over next two years



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Zircon prices set to bounce back after soft 2013

Market forecasts point to growing consumption trend and price recovery



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Goldman Sachs predicts 13% price increase for potash

Temporary upswing in tonnage values expected on continued supply discipline



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Chinese New Year fails to boost mineral markets

Fluorspar, iodine and lithium prices sink; Magnesia markets slow to pick up in January



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Supply factors to shape fluorspar prices in 2014

Opening of a major acidspar project in Vietnam adds to European output; Chinese exports to dictate effects of new supply



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Price Briefing 17 – 23 January

Antimony and potash markets gain as graphene becomes more affordable



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Smuggling crackdowns leave antimony trioxide prices unchanged

Tight supplies expected to last into February; gradual value gains anticipated



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Thursday, 23 January 2014

Walmart Creates $10 Million Fund to Stimulate American Manufacturing



By EMMARIE HUETTEMAN and ELIZABETH A. HARRIS from NYT Business Day http://nyti.ms/1hPygX9

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McKesson Seals Deals to Rescue Celesio Acquisition



By THE ASSOCIATED PRESS from NYT Business Day http://nyti.ms/1hPCvSr

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Graphenea cuts graphene prices on greater efficiency

Company passes on production savings to boost competitiveness



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Wednesday, 22 January 2014

Internet Community Helps Crack Grandma's Code



By THE ASSOCIATED PRESS from NYT U.S. http://nyti.ms/1hMJuf2

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Afghanistan Cracks Down on Advertising in Favour of U.S. Troops



By REUTERS from NYT World http://nyti.ms/1hLbmjK

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Analysis: Rigor and Risk in India Central Bank Reform Push



By REUTERS from NYT Business Day http://nyti.ms/1dORk8C

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Monday, 20 January 2014

Research: The impact of 2014 FHA Loan Limit Changes

Here is some research from Laurie Goodman, Ellen Seidman, and Jun Zhu at the Urban Institute: FHA Loan Limits—What Areas Are the Most Affected?. Some excerpts:

FHA loan limits are set at the county level, and there are 3,234 counties in the United States. Loan limits will not change for 2014 in 2,493 counties, most of which remain at the loan limit floor of $271,050. However, 652 counties will have lower limits and 89 will have higher limits. The Mortgage Bankers' Association has calculated that 92 percent of the counties located in non-metropolitan areas are unaffected. The situation is very different in metropolitan areas. While limits are unchanged in 50.7 percent of the counties located in Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSAs), they will decline in 44.4 percent while increasing in 4.9 percent of the areas. The changes in some markets are larger than would be predicted by either the drop in the ceiling from $729,750 to $625,500 (a 14.3 percent decline), or the change in the median home price multiplier from 125 percent to 115 percent (an 8 percent decline). This has two primary causes: a change in the base year for determining median house price and a revision of MSA boundaries.

...

While the impact of the change in the FHA loan limits is very modest overall, some communities will be very adversely affected. These are communities where the drop in the limits is large and FHA guarantees a high percentage of mortgages.

There is much more in the research note including a list of the impacted communities. As the authors note, the overall impact will be modest, but some communities will be impacted.



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Uralkali cuts Chinese potash contract price by a quarter

Benchmark agreement could lift troubled fertiliser market



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Antimony prices gain as smelters pause for festival

Production line closures reduce supply as demand increases



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Antimony prices gain ahead of Chinese New Year holiday

Production line closures reduce supply as demand increases



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Iodine slides towards anticipated price floor

Market bottom in sight; Chilean port strikes could hit mineral shipments from Q2



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Sunday, 19 January 2014

It Never Rains in California

This is worth a mention - the drought in California is a "growing" concern ...



From the San Francisco Chronicle: California drought: Farmers, ranchers face uncertain future

On Friday, amid California's driest year on record, Gov. Jerry Brown declared a drought emergency in the state. As days pass without snow or rain, dairymen, farmers and other livestock producers are finding themselves in the same predicament as Imhof. Without water to irrigate, produce growers fear they will have to leave some fields fallow.



Ranchers and farmers say that as long as the drought continues, the nation's largest agricultural state will remain in turmoil, with repercussions stretching to consumer pocketbooks in the form of higher prices for such basic staples as meat, milk, fruit and vegetables.

This is the second year in a row with little rain or snow in the mountains (the Central Sierra snowpack is about 16% of normal). California is the largest agricultural state, and an ongoing drought could have an impact on food prices - and on the economy.



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Friday, 17 January 2014

Lawler: Early Read on Existing Home Sales in December

From housing economist Tom Lawler:



Based on realtor association/MLS reports from across the country, I estimate that US existing home sales as measured by the National Association of Realtors ran at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.96 million in December, up 1.2% from both November’s seasonally adjusted pace and last December’s seasonally adjusted pace. I estimate that unadjusted sales (as measured by the NAR) showed a slightly higher YOY growth than SA sales, reflecting this December’s higher business day count than last December.



YOY sales results varied massively across the country. California home sales showed a sizable YOY drop last month, reflecting a large decline in “distressed” sales as well as a steep decrease in investor buying of both distressed and non-distressed sales, combined with relatively flat sales to owner occupants. Phoenix and Las Vegas also experienced big YOY declines, for similar reasons. Some realtors attributed the weak sales to low inventories, but a better way to put it was that sales were down sharply from a year ago in these areas because of a lack of inventory priced either attractively for investment/rental purposes or at prices readily affordable to many potential buyers.



A few areas where the government shutdown appeared to impact closed sales in November experienced a rebound in closed sales in December. For example, in November closed MLS-based sales in the DC metro market were down much more sharply than “normal” on the month, and were off 13.7% YOY. Closed sales bounced back up last month, and were up 9.7% YOY. However, new pending sales in December were down sharply in December, and were off 7.0% YOY, suggesting that “something else” (including high listing prices) was negatively impacting sales in the area.



There were several other markets where closed sales rebounded in December from November but where pending sales in December looked weak.



On the inventory front, the inventory of existing homes for sale typically declines significantly from November to December in most (but not all) parts of the country, and that was clearly the case last month. In fact, inventories as reported by realtor associations/MLS declined by a bit more than the “seasonal” norm in a significant number of markets. Based on these reports as well as reports by various entities that track listings, I’d “guesstimate” that the monthly decline in the inventory of existing homes for sale from November to December was about 8.3%, compared to last December’s monthly drop (as estimated by the NAR) of 8.0%.



Trying to gauge the level of the NAR’s existing home inventory estimate for December, however, is a bit trickier. The monthly decline in the NAR’s existing home inventory estimate in November was significantly smaller both than realtor association/MLS reports and listing trackers reports would have suggested, and I think it is likely that the NAR’s inventory estimate will be revised downward. It is worth noting that the NAR’s preliminary inventory estimate has been revised downward in each of the last six reports (by an average of 1.8%), and that last November’s preliminary inventory estimate was revised downward in the subsequent report by 2.0%. If November’s inventory estimate is revised downward by 1.9%, AND December’s estimate is 8.3% lower than November’s estimate, then the December estimate will be up 2.7% from a year earlier. (You have to be a NUT to try to estimate the NAR data!)



Finally, based on realtor association/MLS reports, my “gueestimate” is that the NAR’s estimate of the median existing SF home sales price is December will be up by about 8.0% from a year earlier. (The November MSP was up 9.4% YOY).



CR Note: The NAR will release the December Existing home sales report next Thursday, and the early consensus is for sales of 5.0 million SAAR (Close to Lawler's estimate).



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Exclusive: Russia Steps Up Military Lifeline to Syria's Assad-Sources



By REUTERS from NYT World http://nyti.ms/1czryiu

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Thursday, 16 January 2014

Friday: Housing Starts, Industrial Production, Consumer Sentiment, JOLTS

First, here is a price index for commercial real estate that I follow. From CoStar: Commercial Real Estate Prices Post Steady Gains in November

COMMERCIAL PROPERTY PRICES CONTINUED THEIR STEADY UPWARD TRAJECTORY IN NOVEMBER: With the U.S. economy on more solid footing during the fourth quarter of 2013 and demand for commercial real estate space on the rise, pricing continued on a steady upward trajectory in November 2013. The two broadest measures of aggregate pricing for commercial properties within the CCRSI—the value-weighted U.S. Composite Index and the equal-weighted U.S. Composite Index—advanced by 0.8% and 1.1%, respectively in November 2013, and rose by a more robust 10.9% and 7.8%, respectively, over the last year.

...

ABSORPTION EXPANDS AT FASTEST RATE SINCE 2007: Tenants occupied an additional 380 million square feet of office, retail and industrial space throughout the U.S. in 2013, the largest annual gain in net absorption over the past six years. The Investment Grade segment of the market continued to dominate in space absorption. However, the pace of absorption in the General Commercial segment has improved significantly as the recovery is accelerating in the secondary and tertiary markets. The General Commercial segment’s share of total net absorption increased from being less than 30% for the last several years to 32% in 2013.

...

DISTRESS SALES REMAIN LOW: The percentage of commercial property selling at distressed prices was slightly more than 13% in November 2013, down roughly two-thirds from the peak in 2011. Technology and energy-driven markets including Houston, Denver, Dallas, and Austin have experienced some of the strongest declines in the share of distress property sales activity over the last year, with a reduction of 80% or more.

emphasis added

Note: These are repeat sales indexes - like Case-Shiller for residential - but this is based on far fewer pairs.



Friday:

• At 8:30 AM ET, Housing Starts for December. The consensus is for total housing starts to decrease to 985 thousand (SAAR) in December.



• At 9:15 AM, the Fed will release Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization for December. The consensus is for a 0.3% increase in Industrial Production, and for Capacity Utilization to increase to 79.1%.



• At 9:55 AM, the Reuter's/University of Michigan's Consumer sentiment index (preliminary for January). The consensus is for a reading of 83.5, up from 82.5 in December.



• At 10:00 AM, the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey for November from the BLS.



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Price Briefing 10 – 16 January

Lithium and mineral sands prices flat to soft; potash tipped to rise



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Uralkali tipped to increase potash prices

Benchmark Chinese contract price expected to be set at $300/tonne



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Wednesday, 15 January 2014

United Continental to Furlough 685 Flight Attendants



By REUTERS from NYT Business Day http://nyti.ms/1htaZtU

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DataQuick: Bay Area Home Sales Drop to Six-Year Low in December

This decline in sales - due to fewer distressed sales - is an important theme. This is a step towards a more normal housing market, NOT a sign that the housing recovery is faltering.



From DataQuick: Bay Area Home Sales Drop to Six-Year Low; Prices Still Up Sharply Yr/Yr

Last month’s Bay Area home sales were the slowest for a December in six years, the result of a constrained supply of homes for sale. ...



A total of 6,714 new and resale houses and condos sold in the nine-county Bay Area last month. That was the lowest for any December since 2007, when 5,065 homes sold. Last month’s sales were up 0.8 percent from 6,659 in November, and down 12.7 percent from 7,688 in December 2012, according to San Diego-based DataQuick.



Sales almost always increase from November to December, usually around 8 percent. Last month’s sales were 21.3 percent below the December average of 8,529 since 1988, when when DataQuick’s statistics begin. ...



Foreclosure resales – homes that had been foreclosed on in the prior 12 months – accounted for 4.5 percent of resales in December, up from 3.7 percent the month before, and down from 12.1 percent a year ago. Foreclosure resales peaked at 52.0 percent in February 2009. The monthly average for foreclosure resales over the past 17 years is 10 percent.



Short sales – transactions where the sale price fell short of what was owed on the property – made up an estimated 10.5 percent of Bay Area resales last month. That was up from an estimated 9.5 percent in November and down from 23.6 percent a year earlier.



Last month absentee buyers – mostly investors – purchased 23.0 percent of all Bay Area homes. That was up from November’s revised 20.6 percent and down from 26.0 percent in December 2012. Absentee buyers paid a median $439,000 last month, up 35.1 percent from $325,000 a year earlier.

Even though overall sales declined, conventional sales were up about 15% year-over-year. Also, as prices increase, more inventory should come on the market.



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Tuesday, 14 January 2014

Antimony prices rise in China as buying activity picks up

Producers stand firm on order values; consumers stock up ahead of Chinese New Year



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House Price Index - November 2013

The House Price Index (HPI) is a monthly output based on mortgage completions data from the Regulated Mortgage Survey (RMS). This release contains data on mix-adjusted average house prices and price indices, along with annual rates of change by region, type of buyer and whether a dwelling is new or pre-owned. A seasonally adjusted mix-adjusted house price index and monthly house price change are also included.



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House Price Index, November 2013

The Office for National Statistics (ONS) House Price Index, previously published by the Department for Communities and Local Government (DCLG) is a monthly release that publishes figures for mix-adjusted average house prices and house price indices for the UK and its component countries and regions. All tables transferred from the DCLG to ONS can be accessed via the reference tables that are available in the data section of this release.



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House Price Index, November 2013: Annual Tables 20 to 39

This House Price Index reference table contains all the annual live tables transferred to the ONS from the Department of Communities and Local Government (DCLG). Please note that during the transfer, the ONS has renumbered the live tables - full details of the new numbers and their corresponding DCLG numbers can be found in the contents tab.



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Monday, 13 January 2014

Vermont Slaps VerMints Candy-Maker for Misusing State Name



By REUTERS from NYT U.S. http://nyti.ms/1dki6Ec

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Vermont Settles With Maker of Mislabeled VerMints



By THE ASSOCIATED PRESS from NYT U.S. http://www.nytimes.com/aponline/2014/01/13/us/ap-us-vermont-versus-vermints.html

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India Anti-Graft Party Shelves Foreign Supermarket Entry Into Delhi



By REUTERS from NYT Business Day http://nyti.ms/1dq6L70

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New Year, New Slogan – “Control the Narrative” by Kelly Barner

In the wake of the 2012 U.S. presidential election, the political idea of managing one’s ‘optics’ spilled over into the corporate world. The pesky but popular buzzword captured an increased focus on how everything looks to observers from timing to backdrops to the tone of a statement or presentation. It is a topic I took on in an October Procurement Insights Post, ‘Managing Procurement’s Optics’.


My conclusion at the time was that we all have optics, whether we are actively managing them or not. The people and organizations we come into contact with in high stakes situations take cues from otherwise innocuous things like running late for a meeting, bringing a second person into a discussion or inquiring into the reasons behind a request. Despite the potential for establishing authority or creating negative impressions, optics are a passive element. They communicate clear meaning from the background.


Again taking direction from the political sphere, 2014 promises to be the year of executives and corporations ‘controlling the narrative’. In other words, whether the news of the moment is good or bad, how will you explain (positive) or spin (negative) your circumstances. Unlike optics, controlling your narrative is an active process, made more complex by the need to get the message out right, first, and using the most advantageous channels.


At the end of December, a USA Today business writer took a political story – the YouTube video where Chiara De Blasio explained her struggle with depression and substance abuse – and applied it to the corporate world (De Blasios Tell their Story Their Way, Michael Wolff). Drawing such comparisons between different spheres is one of my favorite approaches, and I appreciated that he took a political image management tactic and applied it to the corporate world, especially in today’s social-media heavy environment.


Controlling your narrative is important, but is only effective when you are the first to tell your story and when the tale you tell endears you to your audience. As Wolff stated, “In every significant corporation in the nation, controlling the narrative has become one of those feely-feely things that unemotive CEOs and CFOs, with a growing amount of anxiety, understand they really don’t comprehend and about which they need outside consultants to hold their hands.”


Narrative Post Image


While those “unemotive CEOs and CFOs” may or may not naturally induce our sympathy, it is easy for procurement professionals to draw the short line to the CPO and realize that he or she is in the exact same boat – and procurement needs to control their internal and external narratives simultaneously. Procurement is one of the few functions that regularly has contact with internal stakeholders, executive leadership and members of the first and second tiers of the supply chain. Like pervasive optics, we need to control our narrative in all of these interactions as well.


Why is spending being reduced? Why is a contract or category being renegotiated? The answers to these questions will be different when procurement is addressing an internal stakeholder versus fielding questions from current or prospective suppliers.


The most important commonality in all procurement narratives is resisting the urge to sound like a victim or like a function at the mercy of larger organizational and market-driven forces. In both cases, the message will resonate differently when delivered as a proactive statement rather than as a response to a question. Getting in front of a message is the best way to control it – especially through narrative.


There is no point in controlling your narrative unless you have something you are trying to accomplish. De Blasio was looking to address a sensitive topic that might otherwise have been a detraction from his campaign to become the next mayor of New York City. Procurement organizations may be looking to establish their authority internally or maximize negotiating leverage externally.


Regardless of the goal, it is critical to remember that narratives present an opportunity to create bonds and build relationships. Keeping an eye to the potential for collective benefit, or pointing out shared struggles not only furthers the cause in the short term, but improves working relationships. Oh yes, and it also improves procurement’s optics by making the function look more open, transparent, and approachable.


30








from Procurement Insights http://procureinsights.wordpress.com/2014/01/13/new-year-new-slogan-control-the-narrative-by-kelly-barner/

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Stagnant market flattens battery grade lithium carbonate prices

Weak conditions in Chinese hydroxide markets pull values down ahead of Spring Festival



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Internships test a candidate's mettle - and suitability


With all the justified concern about finding the right people for a fast-changing procurement profession, here is a suggestion from the marketing world that could well make sense: try and buy.




With all the justified concern about finding the right people for a fast-changing procurement profession, here is a suggestion from the marketing world that could well make sense: try and buy.


Marketers of everything from cars to consumer magazines to software to toys use that strategy to lure customers. In procurement’s case, CPOs could turn the concept around and combine it with a rigorous internship program; give candidates a chance to find out what procurement is really like by handing them some real project responsibility and seeing how they perform without committing to hiring them full time until the end of the project. Pay them for their work to show that you are serious.


Internships are nothing new, of course. But in a field such as procurement, where soft skills are as important as hard skills, they can be revealing. Companies such as Whirlpool, Daimler Chrysler and others have offered internships. One web development company, Automattic, uses what the company calls "auditions" to find new employees.


Founder Matt Mullenweg says the system, in which candidates get actual work assignments, has worked well for his company. It doesn’t replace the need to review resumes, but it certainly can shed more light on a person’s skills, instincts, willingness to learn and work, and passion for excellence than a mere list of previous employers and responsibilities.


This isn’t meant to denigrate resumes, advanced college degrees or such things as certifications from professional associations. Certainly, they are all important and CPOs should be sure to check them. But by themselves, they can’t tell you how someone will actually perform or interact with the rest of your team. Nor can an interview or reference checks do that. A cynic might say that an interview - even several interviews - tests a candidate’s acting ability as much as anything else, and a reference could be no more than a testimonial from a friend. Interviews and reference checks are important, but can give only a partial glimpse into a candidate’s analytical ability, project-management skills, change-management skills, or customer orientation, all things that procurement executives across Procurement Leaders Forums report as important. And, interviews don’t fully reveal a candidate’s passion for continuous improvement or ability to work cross-functionally, all attributes that Videojet Technologies director of procurement Ryan Hartz, who I spoke with at length about the subject a couple of months ago, and others insist are critical.


You can’t really know a person’s ability or personality until you give them a job. A try-and-buy internship will give you that insight - and it will give candidates a chance to know if they want to work with you.







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Sunday, 12 January 2014

Roger Ailes’ Permanent Pushback Campaign



By DAVID CARR from NYT Business Day http://nyti.ms/1cZxoJU

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Friday, 10 January 2014

PepsiCo's First Premium Water to Make Appearance



By THE ASSOCIATED PRESS from NYT Business Day http://nyti.ms/KJOdSQ

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Indian Envoy Leaves U.S. in Deal to Calm Diplomatic Row



By REUTERS from NYT World http://nyti.ms/1ancHeI

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Thursday, 9 January 2014

Price Briefing 3 – 9 January

Magnesia prices slip in North America; antimony and rare earths values strengthen



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Rare earths prices post modest gains for start of New Year

Chinese policy changes could lay foundations for increased mineral values



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Trulia: Asking House Prices up 11.9% year-over-year in December, Price "Rebound effect fading"

From Trulia chief economist Jed Kolko: The Post-Crash Rebound, Not Job Growth, Drove 2013 Price Gains

In 2013, the housing markets with the biggest increases in asking prices were all rebounding from severe price drops in the housing bust. Home prices are still in rebound mode, but this effect will weaken in 2014. Job growth, in contrast, mattered little for price gains in 2013 but helped drive rent increases.



In December, the year-over-year increase in asking home prices slowed for the first time since the price recovery began in early 2012: prices rose 11.9% year-over-year in December, compared with November’s 12.2% year-over-year increase. Asking prices rose 0.4% month-over-month, seasonally adjusted, the third straight month of gains less than 1%.

...

Overall, regression analysis shows that recent price gains are most strongly associated with the severity of the local housing bust. Markets where prices fell most during the bust (roughly 2006 to 2011, but varies by metro) offered bargains for investors and other buyers who have helped bid prices back up over the past two years. A second important factor is foreclosures: adjusting for other factors, metros with a higher foreclosure inventory today – including many in Florida – have slower price growth. Job growth, however, had little impact on local home price gains in 2013: the relationship between job growth and price gains was positive but not statistically significant.



Therefore, year-over-year price gains in December 2013 are still primarily a reaction to the housing bust, but this rebound effect is fading as we enter 2014. Looking at the quarter-over-quarter price changes throughout 2013, the relationship between the severity of the housing bust and the recent price recovery was stronger earlier in the year than later in the year. More specifically, the correlation between peak-to-trough price change (FHFA) and the Trulia Price Monitor quarter-over-quarter change was -.59 in March; -.45 in June; -.43 in September; and -.33 in December. This correlation is moving closer to zero, which signifies that the rebound effect is fading.



As the housing market continues to recover, factors other than the rebound effect – like job growth – will matter more for price gains. That means slower but more sustainable price increases. emphasis added

Note: These asking prices are SA (Seasonally Adjusted) - and adjusted for the mix of homes - and this suggests further house price increases, but at a slower rate, over the next few months on a seasonally adjusted basis.



from Calculated Risk http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2014/01/trulia-asking-house-prices-up-119-year.html

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Magnesia prices firm in slow European and Chinese markets

Asian market tipped to move from February; North American prices weaken slightly



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Wednesday, 8 January 2014

Thursday: Unemployment Claims

From Jeffry Bartash at MarketWatch: What happens when jobless benefits are cut? North Carolina may offer clues

Last summer, North Carolina slashed the amount of cash it gave to people after they lost their jobs and the state also reduced the number of weeks they could receive benefits. Within several months, the unemployment rate fell a few ticks and by November it fell to a five-year low.

...

Government data also shows that more than 22,000 North Carolinians found work since the cutoff and the number of unemployed sank by nearly 73,000 to 344,000.



What the data doesn’t tell us, however, is what happened to all the people no longer classified as unemployed. While some found a job, others may have retired, ended up on welfare, moved in with family members, sought disability payments or fled to a nearby state with better benefits. We just don’t know.

If Congress fails to take action, I expect the national unemployment rate to fall as many people leave the labor force (the wrong reason for a decline in the unemployment rate). Hopefully Congress will extend the benefits as has happened every time before when this many people are suffering from long term unemployment (it is good policy and good economics) ...



Thursday:

• Early: Trulia Price Rent Monitors for December. This is the index from Trulia that uses asking house prices adjusted both for the mix of homes listed for sale and for seasonal factors.



• At 8:30 AM ET, the initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for claims to decline to 331 thousand from 339 thousand.



from Calculated Risk http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2014/01/thursday-unemployment-claims.html

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FOMC Minutes: "Proceed cautiously" with QE3 Tapering

From the Fed: Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee, December 17-18, 2013 . Excerpt:

In their discussion of monetary policy in the period ahead, most members agreed that the cumulative improvement in labor market conditions and the likelihood that the improvement would be sustained indicated that the Committee could appropriately begin to slow the pace of its asset purchases at this meeting. However, members also weighed a number of considerations regarding such an action, including their degree of confidence in prospects for sustained above-potential economic growth, continued improvement in labor market conditions, and a return of inflation to its mandate-consistent level over time. Some also expressed concern about the potential for an unintended tightening of financial conditions if a reduction in the pace of asset purchases was misinterpreted as signaling that the Committee was likely to withdraw policy accommodation more quickly than had been anticipated. As a consequence, many members judged that the Committee should proceed cautiously in taking its first action to reduce the pace of asset purchases and should indicate that further reductions would be undertaken in measured steps. Members also stressed the need to underscore that the pace of asset purchases was not on a preset course and would remain contingent on the Committee's outlook for the labor market and inflation as well as its assessment of the efficacy and costs of purchases. Consistent with this approach, the Committee agreed that, beginning in January, it would add to its holdings of agency mortgage-backed securities at a pace of $35 billion per month rather than $40 billion per month, and add to its holdings of longer-term Treasury securities at a pace of $40 billion per month rather than $45 billion per month. While deciding to modestly reduce its pace of purchases, the Committee emphasized that its holdings of longer-term securities were sizable and would still be increasing, which would promote a stronger economic recovery by maintaining downward pressure on longer-term interest rates, supporting mortgage markets, and helping to make broader financial conditions more accommodative. The Committee also reiterated that it will continue its asset purchases, and employ its other policy tools as appropriate, until the outlook for the labor market has improved substantially in a context of price stability. In the view of one member, a reduction in the pace of purchases was premature and, before taking such a step, the Committee should wait for more convincing evidence that economic growth was rising faster than its potential and that inflation would return to the Committee's 2 percent objective.



In their discussion of forward guidance about the target federal funds rate, a few members suggested that lowering the unemployment threshold to 6 percent could effectively convey the Committee's intention to keep the target federal funds rate low for an extended period. However, most members wanted to make no change to the threshold and instead preferred to provide qualitative guidance to clarify that a range of labor market indicators would be used when assessing the appropriate stance of policy once the threshold had been crossed. A number of members thought that the forward guidance should emphasize the importance of inflation as a factor in their decisions. Accordingly, almost all members agreed to add language indicating the Committee's anticipation, based on its current assessment of additional measures of labor market conditions, indicators of inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and readings on financial developments, that it would be appropriate to maintain the current target range for the federal funds rate well past the time that the unemployment rate declines below 6-1/2 percent, especially if projected inflation continues to run below the Committee's longer-run objective. It was noted that this language might appear calendar-based rather than conditional on economic and financial developments, and one member objected to having forward guidance that might be seen as relatively inflexible in response to changes in members' views about the appropriate path of the target federal funds rate. However, those concerns generally were seen as outweighed by the benefit of avoiding tying the Committee's decision too closely to the unemployment rate alone, while still being clear about the Committee's intention to provide the monetary accommodation needed to support a return to maximum employment and stable prices.

emphasis added





from Calculated Risk http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2014/01/fomc-minutes-proceed-cautiously-with.html

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Index of Private Housing Rental Prices - Historical Series

The Index of Private Housing Rental Prices (IPHRP) is a quarterly experimental price index. It tracks the prices paid for renting property from private landlords in Great Britain.



from Taxonomy RSS http://www.ons.gov.uk:80/ons/rel/hpi/index-of-private-housing-rental-prices/historical-series/index.html

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Index of Private Housing Rental Prices, Historical Series

The Index of Private Housing Rental Prices (IPHRP) measures the change in price of property rented by private landlords. The index is published as a series of price indices covering Great Britain, its constituent countries and the English regions. IPHRP is produced from a number of administrative sources and is released as experimental statistics.



from Taxonomy RSS http://www.ons.gov.uk:80/ons/rel/hpi/index-of-private-housing-rental-prices/historical-series/iphrp-article.html

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Index of Private Housing Rental Prices, Reference Tables, May 2013

These reference tables contain the full historical monthly series of the Index of Private Housing Rental Prices.



from Taxonomy RSS http://www.ons.gov.uk:80/ons/rel/hpi/index-of-private-housing-rental-prices/historical-series/rft-iphrp-apr13.xls

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In the Long War on Poverty, Small Victories That Matter



By DAVID BORNSTEIN from NYT Opinion http://nyti.ms/1eHfUVK

This content was assembled for you by the YQ Matrix platform



The views expressed in this post and throughout the series are the autor's own and not intended to reflect the views the YQ Matrix platform, its users or any associated organisations.



For the procurement people among you, have a look at the latest YQ Matrix raw material and semi-finished prices. For: Prices on other websites.

Rightsourcing: should you outsource everything?


We are in the midst of our survey into outsourcing and global sourcing. Partly, this is in response recent trends, but is outsourcing only one way?




We are in the midst of our survey into outsourcing and global sourcing. Partly, this is in response recent trends, but is outsourcing only one way?


If you are interested in hearing more about the research, please follow this link.


One respondent to our survey already believes that outsourcing “has had its day”. We have heard many talk about in-sourcing and on-shoring for a while now. It seems the most high profile business topic that retains interest in current affairs.


There are particular, one-off examples that fuel this focus. Wal-Mart has publicly pledged to return $50 billion of offshored spend back to the US. Lenovo, the Chinese inheritor to IBM’s former laptop business, is opening a new production facility in the US.


This attracts a lot of attention. But a few instances do not make a trend.


We have been surveying for such activities frequently over the last years. It is still a very rare activity within the world of procurement. More outsourcing and more offshoring is still the flavour of the month.


It seems be to a taste that CPOs will savour for the foreseeable future.


The tide has yet to turn. But does this skew the conversation? As opposed to outsourcing, which is the de fact emphasis, should we be talking about ‘rightsourcing’, which may lead to increasing the provision of external spend.


This is an important distinction. There is a balance that must be struck between the loss of control in outsourcing and the potential costs savings. Similarly, there is a similar balancing act to strike between the disruption caused by insourcing and the scale benefits that this may bring in scale. In each particular context, there is a particular balance which is right for the company. There is not, as many seem to maintain, an inevitable marched towards vertical disintegration.


It is surprising to see, even in the responses we have been fielding so far, that this view is not commonly held within purchasing.


We hope to going into more depth on these issues in the coming weeks and months. To find out more, click here.







from Procurement Leaders Blog http://www.procurementleaders.com/blog/my-blog--jonathan-webb/rightsourcing-should-you-outsource-everything

This content was assembled for you by the YQ Matrix platform



The views expressed in this post and throughout the series are the autor's own and not intended to reflect the views the YQ Matrix platform, its users or any associated organisations.



For the procurement people among you, have a look at the latest YQ Matrix raw material and semi-finished prices. For: Prices on other websites.

India Tells U.S. to Close Embassy Club; Anger Exposes Flaws in Ties



By REUTERS from NYT World http://nyti.ms/1iSuajF

This content was assembled for you by the YQ Matrix platform



The views expressed in this post and throughout the series are the autor's own and not intended to reflect the views the YQ Matrix platform, its users or any associated organisations.



For the procurement people among you, have a look at the latest YQ Matrix raw material and semi-finished prices. For: Prices on other websites.

Tuesday, 7 January 2014

Battery Ventures Lands Netflix Executive Cockcroft



By REUTERS from NYT Business Day http://nyti.ms/1ieimFx

This content was assembled for you by the YQ Matrix platform



The views expressed in this post and throughout the series are the autor's own and not intended to reflect the views the YQ Matrix platform, its users or any associated organisations.



For the procurement people among you, have a look at the latest YQ Matrix raw material and semi-finished prices. For: Prices on other websites.

Today in Small Business: Close the S.B.A.?



By GENE MARKS from NYT Business Day http://nyti.ms/1eEAaHA

This content was assembled for you by the YQ Matrix platform



The views expressed in this post and throughout the series are the autor's own and not intended to reflect the views the YQ Matrix platform, its users or any associated organisations.



For the procurement people among you, have a look at the latest YQ Matrix raw material and semi-finished prices. For: Prices on other websites.

Friday, 3 January 2014

Bernanke: The Federal Reserve: Looking Back, Looking Forward

From Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke: The Federal Reserve: Looking Back, Looking Forward. On the economy:

I have discussed the factors that have held back the recovery, not only to better understand the recent past but also to think about the economy's prospects. The encouraging news is that the headwinds I have mentioned may now be abating. Near-term fiscal policy at the federal level remains restrictive, but the degree of restraint on economic growth seems likely to lessen somewhat in 2014 and even more so in 2015; meanwhile, the budgetary situations of state and local governments have improved, reducing the need for further sharp cuts. The aftereffects of the housing bust also appear to have waned. For example, notwithstanding the effects of somewhat higher mortgage rates, house prices have rebounded, with one consequence being that the number of homeowners with "underwater" mortgages has dropped significantly, as have foreclosures and mortgage delinquencies. Household balance sheets have strengthened considerably, with wealth and income rising and the household debt-service burden at its lowest level in decades. Partly as a result of households' improved finances, lending standards to households are showing signs of easing, though potential mortgage borrowers still face impediments. Businesses, especially larger ones, are also in good financial shape. The combination of financial healing, greater balance in the housing market, less fiscal restraint, and, of course, continued monetary policy accommodation bodes well for U.S. economic growth in coming quarters. But, of course, if the experience of the past few years teaches us anything, it is that we should be cautious in our forecasts.

emphasis added

CR Note: This fits my current view - and I hope Bernanke is correct!



from Calculated Risk http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2014/01/bernanke-federal-reserve-looking-back.html

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Antimony prices enter 2014 on an unexpected high

December surge could mute predicted January rises; market likely to remain steady



from MPW - Pricing News http://www.indmin.com/Article/3293341/Antimony-prices-enter-2014-on-an-unexpected-high.html

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Price Briefing 13 – 19 December

Disappointing end to 2013 for graphite and fluorspar; iodine and rare earths steady



from MPW - Pricing News http://www.indmin.com/Article/3291394/Price-Briefing-1319-December.html

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